| Press Release on January 6, 2015 |
|
|Special Announcements | Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis |Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Appraisal of Society's Current Conditions) |
|
Special Announcements
- Since the figures released by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong at the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2014, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.
- To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 62 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
|
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong people from December 19 to 30, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that using a one-in-three choices method, people concern livelihood issues the most, followed by economic and then political issues. This has been the usual pattern for many years. In terms of absolute ratings, the order of people’s concern across three broad areas is exactly the same. However, all absolute ratings have increased significantly compared to six months ago, while that of political issues has even reached a 10 year high. These figures show that people now care more about society than before, and can be taken as a positive effect of recent mass movements. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current economic condition stands at positive 1 percentage point, which is the first positive figure registered since June 2010, whereas those for livelihood and political conditions continue to be negative, at negative 23 and negative 51 percentage points respectively. People are still least satisfied with the current political condition. In-depth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current political condition. The maximum sampling error of all percentages in the survey mentioned is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,017 successful interviews, not 1,017 x 67.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2% and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.15 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
|
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest findings of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Sampling error of percentages[6] |
19-30/12/2014 |
1,017 |
67.8% |
+/-3% |
[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Recent figures of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
Date of survey |
27/12/12-3/1/13 |
13-19/6/13 |
20-30/12/13 |
16-19/6/14 |
19-30/12/14 |
Latest Change |
Sample base |
1,007 |
1,040 |
1,019 |
1,018 |
1,017 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
65.3% |
68.0% |
67.3% |
68.4% |
67.8% |
-- |
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[7] |
-- |
Most concerned with livelihood problems[8] |
63% |
60% |
58% |
56% |
55+/-3% |
-1% |
Most concerned with economic problems |
22%[10] |
24% |
24% |
18%[10] |
23+/-3% |
+5%[10] |
Most concerned with political problems |
12% |
13% |
16%[10] |
22%[10] |
21+/-3% |
-1% |
Rating on concern for livelihood problems[8] |
7.30[10] |
7.32 |
7.24 |
7.20 |
7.36+/-0.11 |
+0.16[10] |
Rating on concern for economic problems |
7.20[10] |
7.02[10] |
6.98 |
6.76[10] |
6.98+/-0.12 |
+0.22[10] |
Rating on concern for political problems |
5.79 |
5.77 |
5.77 |
5.89[10] |
6.24+/-0.15 |
+0.35[10] |
Date of survey |
27/12/12-3/1/13 |
13-19/6/13 |
20-30/12/13 |
16-19/6/14 |
19-30/12/14 |
Latest Change |
Sample base |
1,007 |
1,040 |
1,019 |
1,018 |
1,017 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
65.3% |
68.0% |
67.3% |
68.4% |
67.8% |
-- |
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[7] |
-- |
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[8][9] |
19% |
22% |
19% |
26%[10] |
24+/-3% |
-2% |
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[8][9] |
49%[10] |
50% |
56% |
50% |
47+/-3% |
-3% |
Net satisfaction rate |
-30%[10] |
-28% |
-37% |
-25%[10] |
-23+/-5% |
+2% |
Mean value[9] |
2.6[10]
(Base=991) |
2.6
(Base=1,025) |
2.4 (Base=1,010) |
2.6
(Base=1,009) |
2.6+/-0.1
(Base=1,005) |
-- |
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[9] |
29%[10] |
30% |
30% |
35%[10] |
34+/-3% |
-1% |
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[9] |
37%[10] |
39% |
40% |
35%[10] |
32+/-3% |
-3% |
Net satisfaction rate |
-8%[10] |
-9% |
-10% |
-1%[10] |
+1+/-5% |
+2% |
Mean value[9] |
2.9[10]
(Base=987) |
2.8
(Base=1,016) |
2.8
(Base=1,004) |
2.9
(Base=987) |
3.0+/-0.1
(Base=1,006) |
+0.1 |
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[9] |
14%[10] |
13% |
7% |
11%[10] |
12+/-2% |
+1% |
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[9] |
55% |
56% |
69% |
65% |
63+/-3% |
-2% |
Net satisfaction rate |
-41% |
-43% |
-62% |
-54% |
-51+/-4% |
+3% |
Mean value[9] |
2.4
(Base=965) |
2.3
(Base=941) |
2.0
(Base=952) |
2.1
(Base=936) |
2.2+/-0.1
(Base=960) |
+0.1 |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.15 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level " when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8]The wordings used before the June 2010 survey were “social problems” and “social condition”. We take them to mean the same as “livelihood problems” and “livelihood condition” in the survey context.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Latest survey showed that 55% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, 23% with economic problems, while 23% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems were 7.36, 6.98 and 6.24 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people’s satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions were 24%, 34% and 12% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 23, positive 1 and negative 51 percentage points. The mean scores of the livelihood, political and economic conditions were 2.6, 3.0 and 2.2, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.
|
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ satisfaction with the present political condition in Hong Kong by age and education attainment:
Date of survey：19-30/12/14 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall Sample |
Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the present political condition in Hong Kong? [11] |
Satisfied |
7+/-4%
(13) |
7+/-3%
(25) |
18+/-4%
(81) |
12+/-2%
(119) |
Half-half |
17+/-6%
(30) |
23+/-4%
(86) |
20+/-4%
(89) |
20+/-3%
(205) |
Dissatisfied |
76+/-6%
(139) |
68+/-5%
(256) |
53+/-5%
(236) |
63+/-3%
(631) |
Don't know/
hard to say |
0+/-0%
(0) |
2+/-1%
(8) |
10+/-3%
(43) |
5+/-1%
(51) |
Total |
100%
(181) |
100%
(376) |
100%
(448) |
100%
(1,005) |
Mean value |
1.9+/-0.1
(181) |
2.0+/-0.1
(368) |
2.4+/-0.1
(405) |
2.2+/-0.1
(954) |
[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
Date of survey：19-30/12/14 |
Primary or below |
Secondary |
Tertiary or above |
Overall Sample |
Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the present political condition in Hong Kong? [12] |
Satisfied |
19+/-5%
(46) |
12+/-3%
(56) |
7+/-3%
(20) |
12+/-2%
(121) |
Half-half |
25+/-6%
(58) |
21+/-4%
(99) |
16+/-4%
(46) |
20+/-3%
(204) |
Dissatisfied |
45+/-6%
(106) |
63+/-4%
(304) |
77+/-5%
(218) |
63+/-3%
(628) |
Don't know /
hard to say |
12+/-4%
(28) |
5+/-2%
(24) |
<1+/-<1%
(0) |
5+/-1%
(52) |
Total |
100%
(238) |
100%
(483) |
100%
(284) |
100%
(1,004) |
Mean value |
2.5+/-0.1
(210) |
2.2+/-<0.1
(459) |
1.9+/-0.1
(284) |
2.2+/-<0.1
(952) |
[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
|
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from June 16 to 19, 2014 while this survey was conducted from December 19 to 30, 2014. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
27/12/14 |
MTR's West Island Line opens. |
16/12/14 |
Government releases the Long Term Housing Strategy report planning to increase 480,000 residential units in 10 years. |
15/12/14 |
Policy holders of voluntary health insurance will be eligible for tax refund. |
14/12/14 |
Beijing official, Zhang Rong-shun says Hong Kong is in need of “enlightenment” on the “One Country, Two Systems” principle. |
20/12/14 |
President Xi Jinping talks about "one country, two systems" in Macau. |
10/12/14 |
Police start clearance in Admiralty. |
2/12/14 |
The Occupy Central trio announces they will turn themselves to the police and urge protesters on the streets to retreat. |
17/11/14 |
Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect launches, mainland investors are less active than Hong Kong investors. |
27/9/14 |
Occupy Central starts earlier than said. |
21/9/14 |
Students start a 5 day long boycott of classes. |
|
Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “According to our latest survey, using a one-in-three choices method, people concern livelihood issues the most, followed by economic and then political issues. This has been the usual pattern for many years. In terms of absolute ratings, the order of people’s concern across three broad areas is exactly the same. However, all absolute ratings have increased significantly compared to six months ago, while that of political issues has even reached a 10 year high. These figures show that people now care more about society than before, and can be taken as a positive effect of recent mass movements. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current economic condition stands at positive 1 percentage point, which is the first positive figure registered since June 2010, whereas those for livelihood and political conditions continue to be negative, at negative 23 and negative 51 percentage points respectively. People are still least satisfied with the current political condition. In-depth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current political condition. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page.”
|
Future Releases (Tentative)
|
|
|Special Announcements | Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis |Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Appraisal of Society's Current Conditions) |
|
