HKU POP releases the latest figures of the 2014 year-end and 2015 forecast surveyBack

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the "HKU POP Site" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 62 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

POP interviewed 1,021 Hong Kong people between 17 and 22 December 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our annual survey shows that people's net satisfaction of Hong Kong's development in the year past has dropped to new low in 12 years, now at negative 28 percentage points. Exactly 50% said they lived a happy life in the year past, but 17% said they were not happy, giving a net happiness of positive 34 percentage points, which is a new low in 10 years, while net optimism on next year's personal and societal development have dopped to positive 22 and negative 14 percentage points, which are new lows in 3 years. Figures show that although people are not satisified with Hong Kong's development in the year past and not optimistic about the future, they are still leading a happy life. Besides, if people had to choose between having a prosperous, bribery-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for a bribery-free society. Looking ahead, the percentage of those who consider housing to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government has remained comparable as a year ago at 34%, while that of constitutional reform has jumped to 27% which is a new high in 20 years, and that of economy has dropped to 9% which is a new low in 20 years. As for people's New Year wishes, without explicit prompting, close to 50% and 30% made a wish on society-related issue and personal matters, 14% wished for world peace. Further analysis shows that the citizens aged between 18 and 29 are most dissatisfied with Hong Kong's development in 2014, and those aged between 30 and 49 are most pessimistic about the future. The maximum sampling error of the survey is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values need another calculation, response rate being 68%.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of the 2014 review and 2015 forecast survey. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to "rim weighting" based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[7] The figures shown in the "latest change" column of this press release have been tested after "rim weighting" data collected in this and last surveys. The structural effect of using the new weighting method is small, around -2% to +2% for percentage figures, while statistical significance tests are not affected.

Herewith the figures of 2014 review and 2015 forecast, compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% and of net values not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] The expression "clean society" was used in 2006 and before. In 2007, it was changed to "corruption-free society" to highlight the original meaning of the question.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Looking back at the year past, 22% said they were satisfied with Hong Kong's development, 50% were dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction of negative 28 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is between "quite dissatisfied" and "half-half" in general. Meanwhile, 29% expected Hong Kong's development in general to become "better" next year, 43% said it would be worse, giving a net optimism of negative 14 percentage points. Besides, 34% considered "housing" to be the most important problem that the government should tackle next year, 27% thought "constitutional development" was the most pressing problem, while 9% and 3% thought "economy" and "welfare" should be tackled respectively. If one had to choose between a "prosperous", "corruption-free", "fair", "free", and "welfare" society, 27% of the respondents would wish Hong Kong to become a "corruption-free" society, while 23% and 22% opted for a "fair" and "prosperous" society respectively.

Findings also showed that 50% of the respondents said they were happy in the year past, 17% were not, giving a net happiness of positive 34 percentage points. The mean score is 3.4, which is between "quite happy" and "half-half" in general. As for the coming year, 38% believed their personal development would become better, 16% thought they would be worse off, giving a net optimism of positive 22 percentage points. With respect to people's New Year wishes, 47% were society-related, 29% were related to personal matters, 14% were world peace-related, 8% did not have any New Year wish.

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of the satisfaction of HK's development in year 2014 and the expectation of HK's development in year 2015 by respondents' age:

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This release is an exception, because the surveys invovled were one year apart, and any of the significant events listed in our "Opinion Daily" in between might have affected people's comments for the year past. Thus, this release has not highlighted any event from "Opinion Daily", but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records listed in our webpage.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our annual survey completed in mid-December shows that people's net satisfaction of Hong Kong's development in the year past has dropped to new low in 12 years, now at negative 28 percentage points. Exactly 50% said they lived a happy life in the year past, but 17% said they were not happy, giving a net happiness of positive 34 percentage points, which is a new low in 10 years, while net optimism on next year's personal and societal development have dopped to positive 22 and negative 14 percentage points, which are new lows in 3 years. Figures show that although people are not satisified with Hong Kong's development in the year past and not optimistic about the future, they are still leading a happy life. Besides, if people had to choose between having a prosperous, bribery-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for a bribery-free society. Looking ahead, the percentage of those who consider housing to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government has remained comparable as a year ago at 34%, while that of constitutional reform has jumped to 27% which is a new high in 20 years, and that of economy has dropped to 9% which is a new low in 20 years. As for people's New Year wishes, without explicit prompting, close to 50% and 30% made a wish on society-related issue and personal matters, 14% wished for world peace. Further analysis shows that the citizens aged between 18 and 29 are most dissatisfied with Hong Kong's development in 2014, and those aged between 30 and 49 are most pessimistic about the future."

• January 6, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People's appraisal of society's conditions