HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on December 30, 2014

Special Announcements

Since the figures released by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong at the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2014, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews. For details of the release of other year-end surveys, please refer to the “Future Releases” section at the end.
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 61 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 62nd CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,021 Hong Kong people between 17 and 22 December 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. This and other surveys show that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung have fluctuated a lot over the past two months. His latest support rating stands at 43.2 marks, still below the 45 mark alert level despite a significant rebound from two weeks ago. His approval rate now stands at 26%, disapproval rate 59%, giving a net popularity of negative 33 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, after its popularity figures improved significantly in mid-November, they have not changed much. Its net satisfaction rate now stands at negative 11 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, two items have registered positive values, which are relation with the Central Government at positive 9 percentage points and maintaining economic prosperity at positive 3 percentage points. The other three items with negative values are protection of human rights and freedom at negative 10 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 21 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 25 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, only the net satisfaction rates of the handling of its relation with the Central Government and maintaining economic prosperity have registered significant improvements, the other three have remained stable. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,021 successful interviews, not 1,021 x 68.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
17-22/12/2014	1,021	68.0%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	6-9/10/14	20-23/10/14	31/10-5/11/14	17-19/11/14	8-11/12/14	17-22/12/14	Latest Change
Sample base	1,012	1,018	1,008	1,022	1,005	1,021	--
Overall response rate	66.9%	66.3%	64.8%	67.5%	64.5%	68.0%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	40.6^[9]	38.9	40.4	44.7^[9]	39.7^[9]	43.2+/-1.8	+3.5^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	23%	23%	24%	24%	24%	26+/-3%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	61%^[9]	62%	60%	57%	63%^[9]	59+/-3%	-4%^[9]
Net approval rate	-38%	-39%	-37%	-33%	-39%^[9]	-33+/-5%	+6%^[9]
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	27%	--	31%	--	32+/-4%	+1%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	51%^[9]	--	40%^[9]	--	42+/-4%	+2%
Net satisfaction rate	--	-24%	--	-8%^[9]	--	-11+/-7%	-3%
Mean value^[8]	--	2.5 (Base=616)	--	2.8^[9] (Base=603)	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=640)	-0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 641.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 43.2 marks, and 26% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 33 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 32% were satisfied, whereas 42% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 11 percentage points. The mean score is 2.7, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows, in descending order of net satisfaction rates:

Date of survey	16-19/12/13	24-27/3/14	16-19/6/14	17-22/9/14	17-22/12/14	Latest Change^[10]
Sample base^[10]	545-691	555-600	637-713	618-639	622-686	--
Overall response rate	68.6%	68.7%	68.4%	63.9%	68.0%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[11]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[12]	41%	41%	37%	34%	42+/-4%	+8%^[13]
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	32%^[13]	33%	38%^[13]	37%	33+/-4%	-4%
Net satisfaction rate	9%^[13]	8%	-1%^[13]	-3%	9+/-7%	+12%^[13]
Mean value^[12]	3.0 ^[13] (Base=489)	3.0 (Base=523)	2.9 (Base=599)	2.8 (Base=574)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=615)	+0.2^[13]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[12]	31%^[13]	36%	36%	34%	38+/-4%	+4%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	39%	38%	37%	40%	35+/-4%	-5%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	-8%^[13]	-2%	-1%	-6%	3+/-7%	+9%^[13]
Mean value^[12]	2.8 (Base=668)	2.9 (Base=585)	2.9 (Base=627)	2.8 (Base=621)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=677)	+0.1
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[12]	29%^[13]	29%	32%	29%	34+/-4%	+5%^[13]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	49%^[13]	47%	50%	45%^[13]	44+/-4%	-1%
Net satisfaction rate	-20%^[13]	-18%	-18%	-15%	-10+/-7%	+5%
Mean value^[12]	2.6 ^[13] (Base=571)	2.6 (Base=528)	2.6 (Base=678)	2.6 (Base=602)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=604)	+0.1
Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[12]	26%^[13]	33%^[13]	27%^[13]	27%	27+/-4%	--
Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	48%	43%^[13]	52%^[13]	48%	49+/-4%	+1%
Net satisfaction rate	-23%^[13]	-10%^[13]	-25%^[13]	-21%	-21+/-7%	--
Mean value^[12]	2.6 ^[13] (Base=576)	2.8 ^[13] (Base=556)	2.6 ^[13] (Base=649)	2.6 (Base=617)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=627)	--
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[12]	25%	24%	23%	27%	27+/-4%	--
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	52%	50%	52%	49%	52+/-4%	+3%
Net satisfaction rate	-27%	-27%	-29%	-22%	-25+/-7%	-3%
Mean value^[12]	2.5 (Base=526)	2.5 (Base=549)	2.5 (Base=608)	2.5 (Base=570)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=600)	--

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government’s handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 9 percentage points. The Government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity followed, attaining a net satisfaction rate of positive 3 percentage points. That in protecting human rights and freedom and improving people’s livelihood attained net satisfaction rates of negative 10 and negative 21 percentage points respectively. Finally, the net satisfaction rate of the Government’s performance in developing democracy stands at negative 25 percentage points. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.0, 2.9, 2.7, 2.6 and 2.5 respectively, which are between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 17 to 22 September, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 22 December, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

20/12/14	President Xi Jinping talks about “one country, two systems” in Macau.
16/12/14	Government releases the Long Term Housing Strategy report planning to increase 480,000 residential units in 10 years.
14/12/14	Beijing official, Zhang Rong-shun says Hong Kong is in need of “enlightenment” on the “One Country, Two Systems” principle.
10/12/14	Police start clearance in Admiralty.
2/12/14	The Occupy Central trio announces they will turn themselves to the police and urge protesters on the streets to retreat.
17/11/14	Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect launches, mainland investors are less active than Hong Kong investors.
9/11/14	Xi Jinping has a meeting with Leung Chun-ying, indicates his support the SAR government to move toward democratic reform in line with the law.
21/10/14	The government and Hong Kong Federation of Students start the first dialogue but both parties have not reached a consensus at the moment.
27/9/14	Occupy Central starts earlier than said.
21/9/14	Students start a 5 day long boycott of classes.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our surveys show that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung have fluctuated a lot over the past two months. His latest support rating stands at 43.2 marks, still below the 45 mark alert level despite a significant rebound from two weeks ago. His approval rate now stands at 26%, disapproval rate 59%, giving a net popularity of negative 33 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, after its popularity figures improved significantly in mid-November, they have not changed much. Its net satisfaction rate now stands at negative 11 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, two items have registered positive values, which are relation with the Central Government at positive 9 percentage points and maintaining economic prosperity at positive 3 percentage points. The other three items with negative values are protection of human rights and freedom at negative 10 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 21 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 25 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, only the net satisfaction rates of the handling of its relation with the Central Government and maintaining economic prosperity have registered significant improvements, the other three have remained stable. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’. Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.”

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”

Future Releases (Tentative)

December 31, 2014 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: 2014 year-end and 2015 forecast survey
January 6, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Appraisal of society’s conditions