| Press Release on December 23, 2014 |
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| Special Announcements| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis|
| Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government / People's Trust in the Taiwan Government ) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government ) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future / People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |
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Special Announcements
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Since the figures released by Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong at the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2014, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews. For details of the release of other year-end surveys, please refer to the “Future Release” section at the end.
- To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 61 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
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Abstract
POP interviewed 1,014 Hong Kong people between 15 and 18 December 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that all trust and confidence indicators have rebounded from many record lows to the levels registered about six months ago. Specifically, people’s latest net trust in the HKSAR and Central Governments have rebounded 9 and 14 percentage points respectively from three months ago. They now stand at positive 2 and negative 8 percentage points. As for people’s trust in the Taiwan Government, net trust now stands at negative 6 percentage points, having rebounded 11 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, people’s confidence in the future of China has rebounded 14 percentage points from its low point registered three months ago to positive 36 percentage points, which is still the highest confidence indicator among the three. Meanwhile, people’s net confidence in the future of Hong Kong and “one country, two systems” have rebounded 10 and 17 percentage points from their respective low points registered three months ago to positive 6 and negative 2 percentage points. Further analysis shows the younger the respondent, the more one distrusts the Central Government and the less confident in “one country, two systems”. The latest changes in the survey figures are probably related to the termination of the Occupy Movement, and recent elections in Taiwan. Readers are also welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,014 successful interviews, not 1,014 x 67.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8%”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
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Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people’s trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong’s future, China’s future and “one country, two systems”. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
15-18/12/2014 |
1,014 |
67.3% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:
Date of survey |
9-12/12/13 |
17-20/3/14 |
6-12/6/14 |
4-11/9/14 |
15-18/12/2014 |
Latest change |
Total sample size[7] |
1,015 |
1,023 |
1,026 |
1,000 |
1,014 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
68.0% |
67.8% |
67.5% |
63.8% |
67.3% |
-- |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[8] |
-- |
Trust in HKSAR Government[9] |
44% |
45% |
41% |
36%[10] |
37+/-4% |
+1% |
Distrust in HKSAR Government[9] |
35% |
32% |
36% |
43%[10] |
35+/-4% |
-8%[10] |
Net trust |
9% |
12% |
5% |
-7%[10] |
2+/-7% |
+9%[10] |
Mean value[9] |
3.1
(Base=551) |
3.1
(Base=565) |
3.0
(Base=620) |
2.8 [10]
(Base=547) |
2.9+/-0.1
(Base=622) |
+0.1 |
Trust in Beijing Government[9] |
37% |
36% |
34% |
30% |
33+/-4% |
+3% |
Distrust in Beijing Government[9] |
38% |
36% |
41%[10] |
52%[10] |
41+/-4% |
-11%[10] |
Net trust |
-1% |
0% |
-8%[10] |
-22%[10] |
-8+/-7% |
+14%[10] |
Mean value[9] |
2.9
(Base=538) |
2.9
(Base=608) |
2.8
(Base=575) |
2.5 [10]
(Base=533) |
2.8+/-0.1
(Base=550) |
+0.3[10] |
Trust in Taiwan Government[9] |
19% |
17% |
19% |
21% |
22+/-3% |
+1% |
Distrust in Taiwan Government[9] |
36% |
35% |
33% |
38%[10] |
28+/-4% |
-10%[10] |
Net trust |
-17% |
-19% |
-13% |
-17% |
-6+/-6% |
+11%[10] |
Mean value[9] |
2.7
(Base=399) |
2.7
(Base=436) |
2.7
(Base=482) |
2.7
(Base=465) |
2.8+/-0.1
(Base=473) |
+0.1 |
Confidence in HK’s future |
50% |
53% |
49% |
43%[10] |
49+/-4% |
+6%[10] |
No-confidence in HK’s future |
43% |
41% |
42% |
48%[10] |
43+/-4% |
-5%[10] |
Net confidence |
7% |
12% |
7% |
-4%[10] |
6+/-8% |
+10%[10] |
Confidence in China’s future |
68% |
67% |
63% |
56%[10] |
65+/-4% |
+9%[10] |
No-confidence in China’s future |
23% |
27% |
29% |
34%[10] |
29+/-4% |
-5%[10] |
Net confidence |
45% |
40% |
34% |
22%[10] |
36+/-7% |
+14%[10] |
Confidence in “one country, two systems” |
49%[10] |
48% |
47% |
38%[10] |
46+/-4% |
+8%[10] |
No-confidence in “one country, two systems” |
42% |
45% |
46% |
56%[10] |
47+/-4% |
-9%[10] |
Net confidence |
7% |
3% |
1% |
-19%[10] |
-2+/-8% |
+17%[10] |
[7] Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 579 to 640, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Latest survey revealed that 37% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 33% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 22% trusted the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are positive 2, negative 8 and negative 6 percentage points, while the mean scores of these trust indicators are 2.9, 2.8 and 2.8 respectively, meaning close to “half-half” in general. On the other hand, 49% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong’s future, 65% had confidence in China’s future, while 46% of the respondents were confident in “one country, two systems”. The three net confidence values are positive 6, positive 36 and negative 2 percentage points.
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Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ trust in Beijing Central Government and confidence in “one country, two systems” by age:
Date of survey：15-18/12/2014 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall Sample |
Percentage of trust/distrust in Beijing Central Government[11] |
Trust |
16+/-7%
(16) |
33+/-7%
(67) |
38+/-6%
(104) |
33+/-4%
(187) |
Half-half |
14+/-7%
(14) |
25+/-6%
(50) |
22+/-5%
(59) |
21+/-3%
(123) |
Distrust |
68+/-9%
(69) |
40+/-7%
(81) |
32+/-6%
(86) |
41+/-4%
(236) |
Don't know/
hard to say |
2+/-2%
(2) |
2+/-2%
(4) |
8+/-3%
(21) |
5+/-2%
(26) |
Total |
100%
(101) |
100%
(202) |
100%
(269) |
100%
(573) |
Mean value |
2.1+/-0.2
(Base=100) |
2.8+/-0.2
(Base=199) |
3.0+/-0.2
(Base=249) |
2.7+/-0.1
(Base=547) |
[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
Date of survey：15-18/12/2014 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall Sample |
Percentage of confidence/ no-confidence in “one country, two systems” [12] |
Confidence |
20+/-8%
(20) |
43+/-6%
(105) |
57+/-6%
(165) |
46+/-4%
(291) |
No-confidence |
78+/-8%
(79) |
51+/-6%
(126) |
34+/-6%
(98) |
47+/-4%
(303) |
Don't know/
hard to say |
2+/-2%
(2) |
6+/-3%
(14) |
10+/-3%
(28) |
7+/-2%
(45) |
Total |
100%
(102) |
100%
(245) |
100%
(291) |
100%
(638) |
[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
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Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from September 4 to 11, 2014 while this survey was conducted from December 15 to 18, 2014. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
16/12/14 |
Government releases the Long Term Housing Strategy report planning to increase 480,000 residential units in 10 years. |
14/12/14 |
Beijing official, Zhang Rongshun says Hong Kong is in need of “enlightenment” on the “One Country, Two Systems” principle. |
10/12/14 |
Police start clearance in Admiralty. |
6/12/14 |
Zhou Yongkang is expelled from Chinese Communist Party and arrested by authority. |
3/12/14 |
The Occupy Central trio turn themselves in at the Central Police Station. |
29/11/14 |
The opposition pan-green alliance's landslide victory in Taiwan's local elections. |
25/11/14 |
Police start clearance in Mong Kok. |
19/11/14 |
Protesters charge the Legislative Council building. |
15/11/14 |
Three student leaders' home return permits were revoked and thus could not board the flight to Beijing. |
12/11/14 |
Xi Jinping says Occupy Central is an illegal movement. |
10/11/14 |
Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect will be launched next Monday. |
9/11/14 |
Xi Jinping has a meeting with Leung Chun-ying, indicates his support the SAR government to move toward democratic reform in line with the law. |
29/10/14 |
The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference removes James Tien from his position, Tien resigns as Liberal Party leader. |
21/10/14 |
The government and Hong Kong Federation of Students start the first dialogue but both parties have not reached a consensus at the moment. |
27/9/14 |
Occupy Central starts earlier than said. |
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey conducted in mid-December shows that all trust and confidence indicators have rebounded from many record lows to the levels registered about six months ago. Specifically, people’s latest net trust in the HKSAR and Central Governments have rebounded 9 and 14 percentage points respectively from three months ago. They now stand at positive 2 and negative 8 percentage points. As for people’s trust in the Taiwan Government, net trust now stands at negative 6 percentage points, having rebounded 11 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, people’s confidence in the future of China has rebounded 14 percentage points from its low point registered three months ago to positive 36 percentage points, which is still the highest confidence indicator among the three. Meanwhile, people’s net confidence in the future of Hong Kong and ‘one country, two systems’ have rebounded 10 and 17 percentage points from their respective low points registered three months ago to positive 6 and negative 2 percentage points. Further analysis shows the younger the respondent, the more one distrusts the Central Government and the less confident in ‘one country, two systems’. The latest changes in the survey figures are probably related to the termination of the Occupy Movement, and recent elections in Taiwan. Readers are also welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”
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Future Releases (Tentative)
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December 30, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government
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December 31, 2014 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: 2014 year-end and 2015 forecast survey
- January 6, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Appraisal of society’s conditions
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| Special Announcements| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis|
| Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government / People's Trust in the Taiwan Government ) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government ) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future / People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |
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