HKU POP releases first part of Macau annual survey 2014Back

Press Release on December 19, 2014

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 61 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

Hong Kong and Macau differ a lot, the figures of their public sentiments cannot be directly compared. However, within the survey series conducted by POP in Macau, they themselves can be compared. Between 1 and 3 December 2014, POP interviewed 502 Macau people by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers, and found that the popularity of Macau CE Chui Sai On has dropped significantly compared to one year ago. His support rating now stands at 56.2 marks, his net popularity drops to negative 4 percentage points. For the Macau SAR Government, compared to one year ago, its net satisfaction rate has also dropped significantly to positive 2 percentage points, which is record low since 1999. As for the specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, four out of six areas register positive figures. Their rankings are: Relation with the Central Government at positive 57 percentage points, performance of Macau law enforcement departments at positive 36 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 29 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 15 percentage points, while improving people’s livelihood and developing democracy both drop to negative 9 percentage points. The net satisfaction rate for developing democracy is now at its lowest since 1999. Looking back at 2014, Macau people generally give a positive appraisal on the city’s overall development, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 40 percentage points. However, those who expect next year’s development on societal level to get better plunges to 34%, while those who expect the situation to get worse surges to 29%, giving a net optimism of positive 5 percentage points. Besides, if people have to choose between having a prosperous, corruption-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for a corruption-free society. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE”is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 502 successful interviews, not 502 x 66.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9, of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Background Information

Since 1992, POP has been conducting onsite studies in Macau in order to study the development of its public sentiment. Among them, most are related to election studies and opinion testing. Up to now, these research projects include Macau Legislative Assembly Exit Polls (1992, 1996, 2001, 2005 and 2009), Macau handover and year-end review surveys (since 1999), and other feature studies.

After the sovereignty of Hong Kong and Macau returned to China, the development of public sentiment in the two cities has become more inter-related. One can expect that Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Macau, Zhuhai and the whole Pearl River Delta will soon merge to become one entity both economically and culturally. Therefore, in the long run, establishing a common social indicator in this region is a “multiple-win situation” for all. POP’s research in Macau in the last 22 years is aimed at gradually building up a regional system on scientific public opinion polling, and to provide useful data for comparative studies in future.

Latest Figures

POP today releases via the “POP SITE” the first part of the Macau annual survey 2014, while the second part will be released on January 8, 2015. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to figures obtained from the Statistics and Census Service of Macau government regarding the gender-age distribution of the Macau population in 2013 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
1-3/12/2014	502	66.5%	+/-4%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

I. Popularity figures of Macau CE and the Government

Recent popularity figures of Macau CE Chui Sai On and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the MSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	24-26/1/11	17/11-9/12/11	23-28/12/12	6-12/12/13	1-3/12/14	Latest change
Sample base	508	1,022	519	511	502	--
Overall response rate	72.7%	71.7%	70.6%	69.6%	66.5%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE Chui Sai On	55.5	62.7	64.5^[8]	61.1^[8]	56.2+/-1.9	-4.9^[8]
Vote of confidence in CE Chui Sai On	32%	44%	51%^[8]	39%^[8]	38+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Chui Sai On	48%	36%	28%^[8]	39%^[8]	42+/-4%	+3%
Net approval rate	-16%	8%	23%^[8]	0%^[8]	-4+/-8%	-4%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[9]	34%	50%	49%	41%^[8]	35+/-4%	-6%^[8]
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[9]	23%	17%	14%	26%^[8]	34+/-4%	+8%^[8]
Net satisfaction rate	11%	33%	35%	15%^[8]	2+/-7%	-13%^[8]
Mean value^[9]	3.08+/-0.1 (Base=506)	3.3+/-0.1 (Base=1,015)	3.4+/-0.1 (Base=519)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=511)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=501)	-0.2^[8]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

The latest survey showed that, CE Chui Sai On scored 56.2 marks, 38% supported him as CE and 42% opposed, giving him a net approval rate of negative 4 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the Macau SAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 35% were satisfied, whereas 34% were dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction of positive 2 percentage points. The mean score is 2.9, which is close to “half-half”.

Recent figures on Macau people's appraisal of the six specific policy areas of the Macau SAR Government, and towards Central Government’s policy on Macau since the Handover are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey^[10]	24-26/1/11	17/11-9/12/11	23-28/12/12	6-12/12/13	1-3/12/14	Latest Change
Sample base	508	1,022	519	511	502	--
Overall response rate	72.7%	71.7%	70.6%	69.6%	66.5%	--
Finding^[11]	Finding	Finding]	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[12]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate	63%	--	62%	66%	64+/-4%	-2%
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate	8%	--	6%	6%	7+/-2%	+1%
Net satisfaction rate	55%	--	56%	60%	57+/-6%	-3%
Mean value	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=457)	--	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=446)	3.8+/-0.1 (Base=449)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=465)	-0.1
Performance of Macau law enforcement departments (including the Judicial Police): Satisfaction rate	42%	--	51%	47%	54+/-4%	+7%^[13]
Performance of Macau law enforcement departments (including the Judicial Police): Dissatisfaction rate	28%	--	17%	24%^[13]	17+/3%	-7%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	14%	--	34%	23%^[13]	36+/-7%	+13%^[13]
Mean value	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=500)	--	3.3+/-0.1 (Base=511)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=499)	3.4+/-0.1 (Base=490)	+0.2^[13]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate	51%	--	62%	61%	51+/-4%	-10%^[13]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate	17%	--	11%	13%	23+/-4%	+10%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	34%	--	51%	47%	29+/-7%	-18%^[13]
Mean value	3.3+/-0.1 (Base=502)	--	3.6+/-0.1 (Base=510)	3.5+/-0.1 (Base=508)	3.3+/-0.1 (Base=498)	-0.2^[13]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate	36%	--	39%	41%	38+/-4%	-3%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate	24%	--	18%	21%	23+/-4%	+2%
Net satisfaction rate	12%	--	21%	20%	15+/-7%	-5%
Mean value	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=478)	--	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=473)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=482)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=478)	-0.1
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate	30%	--	44%	37%^[13]	34+/-4%	-3%
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate	38%	--	23%	34%^[13]	42+/-4%	+8%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	-8%	--	21%	3%^[13]	-9+/-8%	-12%^[13]
Mean value	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=502)	--	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=504)	3.0+/-0.1^[13] (Base=507)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=495)	-0.2^[13]
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate	30%	--	33%	28%^[13]	27+/-4%	-1%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate	32%	--	23%	31%^[13]	36+/-4%	+5%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	-2%	--	10%	-3%^[13]	-9+/-7%	-6%
Mean value	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=480)	--	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=463)	2.9+/-0.1^[13] (Base=458)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=465)	-0.1
Central Government’s policy on Macau since the Handover: positive evaluation	66%	--	72%	66%^[13]	64+/-4%	-2%
Central Government’s policy on Macau since the Handover: negative evaluation	6%	--	3%	7%^[13]	7+/-2%	--
Net evaluation rate	60%	--	69%	60%^[13]	57+/-6%	-3%
Mean value	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=494)	--	3.9+/-0.1 (Base=502)	3.8+/-0.1 (Base=491)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=488)	-0.1

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Of the 6 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 57 percentage points. The performance of Macau law enforcement departments (including the Judicial Police) followed, attaining a net satisfaction rate of positive 36 percentage points. The government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity attained a net satisfaction rate of positive 29 percentage points, while the government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom attained a net satisfaction rate of positive 15 percentage points. Finally, the net satisfaction rate of the government's performance in improving people's livelihood as well as developing democracy both attained a net satisfaction rate of negative 9 percentage points. The mean scores of these 6 specific areas are 3.7, 3.4, 3.3, 3.1, 2.8 and 2.8 respectively, meaning in between “quite satisfied” and “half-half” in general. Meanwhile, 64% of the respondents evaluated positively on the policy of the Central Government on Macau after the handover, whereas 7% gave negative evaluations giving net value of positive 57 percentage points. The mean score is 3.7 marks, meaning close to “quite satisfied”.

II. Macau people’s 2014 review and 2015 forecast

Herewith the figures of Macau people’s 2014 year-end review and 2015 forecast, compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:

Date of survey	24-26/1/11	17/11-9/12/11	23-28/12/12	6-12/12/13	1-3/12/14	Latest change
Sample base^[14]	508	1,022	519	511	502	--
Overall response rate	72.7%	71.7%	70.6%	69.6%	66.5%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[15]	--
Satisfied with Macau’s development in the year past^[16]	61%	70%	69%	62%^[17]	56+/-4%	-6%^[17]
Dissatisfied with Macau’s development in the year past^[16]	11%	7%	8%	12%^[17]	16+/-3%	+4%^[17]
Net satisfaction rate	50%	63%	61%	50%^[17]	40+/-7%	-10%^[17]
Mean value^[16]	3.5+/-0.1 (Base=498)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=566)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=513)	3.5+/-0.1^[17] (Base=508)	3.4+/-0.1 (Base=498)	-0.1
Expected Macau’s development to be better next year	60%	--	55%	55%	34+/-4%	-21%^[17]
Expected Macau’s development to be worse next year	11%	--	11%	7%^[17]	29+/-4%	+22%^[17]
Net optimism	49%	--	45%	49%	5+/-7%	-44%^[17]
Wished Macau to become a:
Corruption-free society	34%	28%	33%^[17]	40%^[17]	38+/-4%	-2%
Fair society	20%	22%	22%	20%	20+/-4%	--
Prosperous society	15%	17%	17%	17%	18+/-3%	+1%
Welfare society	21%	21%	20%	15%^[17]	15+/-3%	--
Free society	7%	9%	5%^[17]	6%	7+/-2%	+1%

[14] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
[15] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[16] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[17] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Looking back at the year past, 56% said they were satisfied with Macau’s development, 16% were dissatisfied, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 40 percentage points. The mean score is 3.4, which is in between “quite satisfied” and “half-half”. Meanwhile, 34% expected Macau’s development in general to become “better” next year, 29% said it would be worse, giving a net optimism of positive 5 percentage points. If one had to choose between a “prosperous”, “corruption-free”, “fair”, “free”, and “welfare” society, 38% of the respondents would wish Macau to become a “corruption-free” society, while 20% and 18% opted for a “fair” and “prosperous” society respectively.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Hong Kong and Macau differ a lot, the figures of their public sentiments cannot be directly compared. However, within the survey series conducted by POP in Macau, they themselves can be compared. According to our annual survey completed in early December, the popularity of Macau CE Chui Sai On has dropped significantly compared to one year ago. His support rating now stands at 56.2 marks, his net popularity drops to negative 4 percentage points. For the Macau SAR Government, compared to one year ago, its net satisfaction rate has also dropped significantly to positive 2 percentage points, which is record low since 1999. As for the specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, four out of six areas register positive figures. Their rankings are: Relation with the Central Government at positive 57 percentage points, performance of Macau law enforcement departments at positive 36 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 29 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 15 percentage points, while improving people’s livelihood and developing democracy both drop to negative 9 percentage points. The net satisfaction rate for developing democracy is now at its lowest since 1999. Looking back at 2014, Macau people generally give a positive appraisal on the city’s overall development, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 40 percentage points. However, those who expect next year’s development on societal level to get better plunges to 34%, while those who expect the situation to get worse surges to 29%, giving a net optimism of positive 5 percentage points. Besides, if people have to choose between having a prosperous, corruption-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for a corruption-free society.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

December 22, 2014 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people's ethnic identity
December 23, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Trust and confidence indicators