HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials and Cross-tabulation Analysis of Occupy Movement SurveyBack

(1) The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has previously opened a new page at “PopCon” (http://popcon.hk) to let people suggest questions on the Occupy Movement for general surveys. POP selected some of the proposed questions and conducted three surveys, the preliminary results of the third survey were released via “PopCon” last Wednesday (December 10, 2014). POP today further releases the raw data of the survey via the same platform, together with some cross-tabulation analyses, one of which is appended to this press release. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

(2) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 60 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 61st CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

POP interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong people between 8 and 11 December, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey conducted more than two months after the beginning of Occupy Movement shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has dropped again, after a recovery in November. His support rating stands at 39.7 marks only, while his net approval rate stands at negative 39 percentage points, probably due to his recent remarks. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 54.8 marks, her approval rate 50%, disapproval rate 21%, giving a net popularity of positive 30 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 55.9 marks, approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 12%, and net popularity positive 44 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.3 marks, approval rate 32%, disapproval rate 25%, giving a net popularity of positive 7 percentage points. The support rating of Carrie Lam again hits record low since she became CS, while John Tsang becomes the most popular Secretary of Department again. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 10 among the 12 Directors have gone down, while 2 have gone up. Among them, those who registered significant changes in net approval rates include, Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, up by 11 percentage points, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Development Paul Chan, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, down by 10, 9, 7, 7 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 28 and 43 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 77 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang and Carrie Lam fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Raymond Tam, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Gregory So, Tsang Tak-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45 again, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the corresponding net approval rates of Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So are positive 5.5, 5.1 and 4.8 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked eighth, ninth and tenth this time.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 39.7 marks, and 24% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 39 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 54.8, 55.9 and 47.3 marks, and 50%, 57% and 32% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 30, positive 44 and positive 7 percentage points respectively.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 31 October to 5 November, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 8 to 11 December, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

Our latest survey conducted more than two months after the beginning of Occupy Movement shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has dropped again, after a recovery in November. His support rating stands at 39.7 marks only, while his net approval rate stands at negative 39 percentage points, probably due to his recent remarks.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 54.8 marks, her approval rate 50%, disapproval rate 21%, giving a net popularity of positive 30 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 55.9 marks, approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 12%, and net popularity positive 44 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.3 marks, approval rate 32%, disapproval rate 25%, giving a net popularity of positive 7 percentage points. The support rating of Carrie Lam again hits record low since she became CS, while John Tsang becomes the most popular Secretary of Department again.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 10 among the 12 Directors have gone down, while 2 have gone up. Among them, those who registered significant changes in net approval rates include, Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, up by 11 percentage points, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Development Paul Chan, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, down by 10, 9, 7, 7 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 28 and 43 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 77 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang and Carrie Lam fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Raymond Tam, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Gregory So, Tsang Tak-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

• December 19, 2014 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm: First part of Macau annual survey 2014

• December 22, 2014 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity

• December 23, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Trust and confidence indicators

One of the cross-tabulation analyses of “PopCon Surveys on Occupy Movement” is shown below, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

[18] Excluding those who answered “Don’t know/hard to say”.