HKU POP releases findings on people’s feeling towards different governments and peoplesBack

Press Release on December 2, 2014

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 60 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on Hong Kong citizens’ feeling towards different governments and peoples in November, by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that in terms of net affinity Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the margin of net affinity for Hong Kong people over Hong Hong SAR government, and that for Taiwan people over Taiwan government, both happen to be 42 percentage points, while net affinity for Macau people is 17 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, and that for Mainland Chinese people is 10 percentage points higher than that for the Mainland Chinese government. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Japan, Thailand, the United States and Russia whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Compared to 6 months ago, Hong Kong people’s net affinity for the people of South Korea, Germany and Russia are all at their new highs since 2007. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level while the sampling error of net values need another calculation. The response rate of the second stage opinion survey is 67%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,022 successful interviews, not 1,022 x 67.5% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,009 successful interviews, not 1,009 x 67.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the survey findings on Hong Kong people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples. These surveys on governments are conducted at least once a year since 1997, while the surveys on peoples only began in 2007, this being the fifteenth time. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages ^[6]
17-19/11/2014 (First stage naming survey)	1,022	67.5%	+/-3%
24-27/11/2014 (Second stage opinion survey)	1,009	67.1%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. For this survey, the sub-sample size of all questions has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have been reported in the statistical tables.

The research design of our survey on “people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. For many years, POP have selected 15 regions and countries that are best known to Hong Kong people, and conducted surveys to measure people’s feeling towards the governments of these places. Our primary objective was to map Hong Kong people’s cosmopolitan view over time. In 2007, we improved our research design. Our mid-2007 survey was divided into two stages, namely, a naming survey and an opinion survey. In the 2007 year-end survey, we further added the people module to the survey. In specific terms, in our naming survey, other than Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau, respondents can name, unaided, up to ten regions or countries which they know best. The four cross-strait regions together with 12 other regions and countries most frequently mentioned in the naming stage were then shortlisted into the second stage, with their governments and peoples rated by respondents as “very positive”, “quite positive”, “half-half”, “quite negative” or “very negative”. In our first stage survey conducted on November 17 to 19, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia and France were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Our second stage survey was conducted on November 24 to 27. The following table summarizes the findings of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards the governments and peoples of the four cross-strait regions.

Date of survey		25-27/5/13	22-28/11/13	27-30/5/14	24-27/11/14
Sample base		1,031	1,030	1,018	1,009
Overall response rate		67.3%	66.3%	66.1%	67.1%
Feeling towards different governments / peoples ^[7]		Finding	Finding	Finding	Base ^[8]	Finding and error ^[9]	Latest change^[10]	Net difference with gov’ts / peoples
Hong Kong	People Positive	46%	56%^[11]	51%	543	49+/-4%	-2%	+42%
	People Negative	9%	11%	9%	543	11+/-3%	+2%
	Net value	37%	45%^[11]	43%	--	38+/-6%	-5%
	Government Positive	19%^[11]	27%^[11]	25%	543	32+/-4%	+7%^[11]	-42%
	Government Negative	35%^[11]	40%^[11]	37%	543	37+/-4%	--
	Net value	-16%^[11]	-13%	-12%	--	-5+/-7%	+7%
Mainland	People Positive	21%^[11]	27%^[11]	28%	545	31+/-4%	+3%	+10%
	People Negative	36%^[11]	32%	24%^[11]	545	25+/-4%	+1%
	Net value	-15%^[11]	-5%^[11]	4%^[11]	--	6+/-6%	+2%
	Government Positive	20%^[11]	28%^[11]	30%	545	29+/-4%	-1%	-10%
	Government Negative	37%^[11]	37%	33%	545	34+/-4%	+1%
	Net value	-17%^[11]	-9%^[11]	-3%	--	-5+/-7%	-2%
Taiwan	People Positive	57%^[11]	60%	63%^[11]	536	59+/-4%	-4%	+42%
	People Negative	3%^[11]	4%	3%	536	4+/-2%	+1%
	Net value	54%	56%	60%^[11]	--	55+/-5%	-5%
	Government Positive	35%	37%	32%	536	29+/-4%	-3%	-42%
	Government Negative	8%	15%^[11]	15%	536	16+/-3%	+1%
	Net value	27%	22%	17%	--	13+/-6%	-4%
Macau	People Positive	48%	57%^[11]	49%^[11]	534	51+/-4%	+2%	+17%
	People Negative	1%	3%^[11]	3%	534	2+/-1%	-1%
	Net value	47%	54%^[11]	46%^[11]	--	49+/-5%	+3%
	Government Positive	45%^[11]	52%^[11]	39%^[11]	534	45+/-4%	+6%^[11]	-17%
	Government Negative	7%	9%	17%^[11]	534	13+/-3%	-4%^[11]
	Net value	38%^[11]	43%	22%^[11]	--	32+/-6%	+10%^[11]

[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[8] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Comparison made with survey findings of 27-30/5/14.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Herewith the findings of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards the governments and peoples of 12 regions and countries other than the four cross-strait regions. They are ranked according to the net values of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards their people, in descending order:

Date of survey		25-27/5/13	22-28/11/13	27-30/5/14	24-27/11/14
Sample base		1,031	1,030	1,018	1,009
Overall response rate		67.3%	66.3%	66.1%	67.1%
Feeling towards different governments / peoples ^[12]		Finding	Finding	Finding	Base^[13]	Finding and error^[14]	Latest change^[15]	Net difference with gov’ts / peoples
Singapore	People Positive	62%	71%^[16]	65%^[16]	557	60+/-4%	-5%^[16]	+8%
	People Negative	3%^[16]	2%	2%	557	2+/-1%	--
	Net value	59%	70%^[16]	63%^[16]	--	58+/-4%	-5%^[16]
	Government Positive	59%	70%^[16]	62%^[16]	557	56+/-4%	-6%^[16]	-8%
	Government Negative	7%	4%^[16]	7%^[16]	557	5+/-2%	-2%
	Net value	52%	66%^[16]	55%^[16]	--	50+/-5%	-5%
Canada	People Positive	51%	60%^[16]	56%	536	49+/-4%	-7%^[16]	+5%
	People Negative	2%	1%	1%	536	2+/-1%	+1%
	Net value	49%	59%^[16]	54%	--	47+/-5%	-7%^[16]
	Government Positive	51%	55%	52%	536	45+/-4%	-7%^[16]	-5%
	Government Negative	2%	2%	3%	536	3+/-2%	--
	Net value	49%	54%^[16]	50%	--	42+/-5%	-8%^[16]
Australia	People Positive	49%	58%^[16]	50%^[16]	548	49+/-4%	-1%	+5%
	People Negative	3%	1%^[16]	2%	548	2+/-1%	--
	Net value	46%	57%^[16]	48%^[16]	--	46+/-5%	-2%
	Government Positive	46%^[16]	48%	42%	548	44+/-4%	+2%	-5%
	Government Negative	3%	3%	4%	548	2+/-1%	-2%
	Net value	43%	45%	38%	--	42+/-5%	+4%
South Korea	People Positive	45%^[16]	52%^[16]	50%	539	52+/-4%	+2%	+7%
	People Negative	7%	7%	8%	539	6+/-2%	-2%
	Net value	38%^[16]	45%^[16]	43%	--	46+/-5%	+3%
	Government Positive	40%^[16]	47%^[16]	38%^[16]	539	46+/-4%	+8%^[16]	-7%
	Government Negative	10%	7%^[16]	13%^[16]	539	7+/-2%	-6%^[16]
	Net value	30%^[16]	39%^[16]	25%^[16]	--	39+/-5%	+14%^[16]
Germany	People Positive	39%^[16]	43%	38%	521	45+/-4%	+7%^[16]	+9%
	People Negative	3%	3%	2%	521	1+/-1%	-1%
	Net value	36%^[16]	41%^[16]	35%	--	44+/-5%	+9%^[16]
	Government Positive	34%	42%^[16]	34%^[16]	521	39+/-4%	+5%^[16]	-9%
	Government Negative	5%	3%^[16]	4%	521	3+/-2%	-1%
	Net value	29%	39%^[16]	30%^[16]	--	36+/-5%	+6%^[16]
Japan	People Positive	43%	49%^[16]	50%	552	53+/-4%	+3%	+85%
	People Negative	15%	15%	14%	552	10+/-3%	-4%^[16]
	Net value	28%	34%	36%	--	44+/-6%	+8%^[16]
	Government Positive	11%	12%	13%	552	15+/-3%	+2%	-85%
	Government Negative	59%	63%	57%^[16]	552	56+/-4%	-1%
	Net value	-48%	-51%	-44%	--	-41+/-6%	+3%
United Kingdom	People Positive	44%	54%^[16]	49%	542	44+/-4%	-5%^[16]	+20%
	People Negative	4%	4%	4%	542	6+/-2%	+2%
	Net value	40%	49%^[16]	45%	--	38+/-5%	-7%^[16]
	Government Positive	41%	50%^[16]	45%^[16]	542	37+/-4%	-8%^[16]	-20%
	Government Negative	9%^[16]	10%	9%	542	19+/-3%	+10%^[16]
	Net value	32%	40%^[16]	35%	--	18+/-6%	-17%^[16]
USA	People Positive	33%	47%^[16]	41%	531	40+/-4%	-1%	+44%
	People Negative	12%	11%	7%	531	9+/-2%	+2%
	Net value	21%	36%^[16]	34%	--	31+/-5%	-3%
	Government Positive	21%	24%	18%^[16]	531	21+/-4%	3%	-44%
	Government Negative	32%	36%	39%	531	34+/-4%	-5%^[16]
	Net value	-11%	-12%	-21%^[16]	--	-13+/-6%	+8%^[16]
Thailand	People Positive	35%	38%	33%	524	38+/-4%	+5%^[16]	+48%
	People Negative	9%	12%	17%^[16]	524	11+/-3%	-6%^[16]
	Net value	26%	26%	17%^[16]	--	26+/-6%	+9%^[16]
	Government Positive	19%^[16]	20%	11%^[16]	524	16+/-3%	+5%^[16]	-48%
	Government Negative	24%^[16]	32%^[16]	52%^[16]	524	38+/-4%	-14%^[16]
	Net value	-5%^[16]	-11%	-41%^[16]	--	-22+/-6%	+19%^[16]
Italy	People Positive	26%^[16]	30%	32%	530	30+/-4%	-2%	+13%
	People Negative	7%	6%	4%	530	5+/-2%	+1%
	Net value	19%	24%^[16]	28%^[16]	--	25+/-5%	-3%
	Government Positive	18%^[16]	20%	22%	530	19+/-3%	-3%	-13%
	Government Negative	11%	10%	8%	530	8+/-2%	--
	Net value	7%^[16]	9%	15%^[16]	--	12+/-4%	-3%
France	People Positive	27%	33%^[16]	35%	540	28+/-4%	-7%^[16]	+9%
	People Negative	7%	7%	5%	540	6+/-2%	+1%
	Net value	20%	26%^[16]	31%^[16]	--	23+/-5%	-8%^[16]
	Government Positive	18%	24%^[16]	24%	540	19+/-3%	-5%^[16]	-9%
	Government Negative	9%	9%	6%^[16]	540	6+/-2%	--
	Net value	9%	15%^[16]	17%^[16]	--	13+/-4%	-4%
Russia	People Positive	--	--	25%	541	26+/-4%	+1%	+32%
	People Negative	--	--	9%	541	6+/-2%	-3%^[16]
	Net value	--	--	16%	--	20+/-5%	+4%
	Government Positive	--	--	20%	541	19+/-3%	-1%	-32%
	Government Negative	--	--	28%	541	31+/-4%	+3%
	Net value	--	--	-8%	--	-12+/-6%	-4%

[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[13] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Comparison made with survey findings of 27-30/5/14.
[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Our latest findings showed that, as regards the results of people’s feeling towards different peoples, 49% felt positive towards Hong Kong people themselves while the net value is positive 38 percentage points. For the other cross-strait regions, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau peoples were 31%, 59% and 51% while their net values are positive 6, 55 and 49 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on peoples of other regions and countries, the net values for Singapore, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Germany and Japan were highest, with positive 58, 47, 46, 46, 44 and 44 percentage points respectively, while those for the United Kingdom, the United States, Thailand and Italy were positive 38, 31, 26 and 25 percentage points correspondingly. Lastly, the net value of feeling towards the people of France and Russia are positive 23 and 20 percentage points only.

Regarding the results of people’s feeling towards different governments, 32% felt positive towards the HKSAR government while the net value is negative 5 percentage points. For the other cross-strait governments, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau governments were 29%, 29% and 45% while their net values are negative 5, positive 13 and 32 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on other governments, the net values for Singapore, Canada and Australia were the highest, with positive 50, 42 and 42 percentage points correspondingly, while those for South Korea, Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy were positive 39, 36, 18, 13 and 12 percentage points correspondingly, those for Russia, the United States, Thailand and Japan were negative 12, 13, 22 and 41 percentage points correspondingly.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from May 27 to 30, 2014 while this survey was conducted from November 24 to 27, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

27/11/14	Media continues to report on Occupy Central.
25/11/14	Police start clearance in Mong Kok.
21/11/14	The People’s Bank of China lowers the benchmark lending rate and deposit rate.
17/11/14	Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect started yesterday, mainland investors are less active than Hong Kong investors.
15/11/14	Three student leaders’ home return permits were revoked and thus could not board the flight to Beijing.
12/11/14	Xi Jinping says Occupy Central is an illegal movement.
7/11/14	China and Japan agree a four-points plan to improve relationship.
19/9/14	Democracy wins the Scottish independence referendum.
5/9/14	Taiwan’s tainted oil was sold to the market.
31/8/14	The National People’s Congress Standing Committee approves electing Hong Kong’s chief executive in 2017's proposal by vote.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that in terms of net affinity Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the margin of net affinity for Hong Kong people over Hong Hong SAR government, and that for Taiwan people over Taiwan government, both happen to be 42 percentage points, while net affinity for Macau people is 17 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, and that for Mainland Chinese people is 10 percentage points higher than that for the Mainland Chinese government. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Japan, Thailand, the United States and Russia whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Compared to 6 months ago, Hong Kong people’s net affinity for the people of South Korea, Germany and Russia are all at their new highs since 2007. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.

Future Release (Tentative)

December 9, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of disciplinary forces