HKU POP releases ratings of top 10 political groups Back

Press Release on November 4, 2014

Special Announcements

(1) In light of numerous public requests received by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong asking us to conduct surveys on the current situation, many with suggested questions, POP has opened a new page today at “PopCon” (http://popcon.hk) to let people suggest questions for general surveys of the Hong Kong public. Once adopted, these questions will be used in standard POP surveys, and their findings would be released as soon as possible. POP takes this as a community service to discover real public opinion. Up to now 40 proposed questions and 13 email opinions submitted by citizens have been uploaded to the platform. POP hereby expresses our gratitude to them.

(2) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 58 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on the rankings of the top 10 political groups in October 2014 by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the Hong Kong Federation of Students passes the recognition benchmark for the first time to enter the “top 10” list and also ranks first, but with a rating score of less than 50. As for other political groups on the list, all ratings are less than 43, and the bottom three even get less than 40. All political groups have become losers in the Occupy Movement. In terms of support ratings, compared to four months ago, the support ratings of all political groups which were also rated last time have gone down significantly. FTU, DAB, DP, HKCTU and CP all drop to their record lows since they first appeared on the list, meaning 1991, 1992, 1994, 1999 and 2006 respectively. Compared to the last survey, 8 of the top 10 political groups in the last survey have managed to maintain their place in the “top 10”, while the HKFS and HKCTU enter the list to replace NWS and Labour Party. In terms of relative rankings, HKFS ranks first with a low score. FTU remains at the second place, LP goes up two positions to rank third, Civic Party goes down 1 position to rank 4th, while Scholarism goes up three positions to rank 5th. HKCTU re-enters the list since February this year to rank 6th. DAB remains at the 7th position. DP goes down two positions to rank 8th. Meanwhile, LSD and PP remain at the 9th and 10th positions respectively. It should be noted, however, that our “Top 10 Political Groups” only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings of top ten political groups registered fall between +/-1.8 and +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 66%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey of top 10 political groups is 1,013 successful interviews, not 1,013 x 65.9% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is other 1,018 successful interviews, not 1,018 x 66.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2014 and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings^[6]
13-16/10/2014 (First stage naming survey)	1,013	65.9%	+/-3%
20-23/10/2014 (Second stage rating survey)	1,018	66.3%	+/-2.8

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our “Top ten political groups” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from October 13 to 16. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), Civic Party (CP), Liberal Party (LP) and People Power (PP) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from October 20 to 23, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:

Date of survey	12-18/10/2013	17-20/2/2014	25-30/6/2014	20-23/10/2014		Latest change
Sample base	518-584	538-647	552-609	576-678		--
Overall response rate	66.6%	67.8%	67.1%	66.3%		--
Finding / Recog rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	Recog %	--
HKFS	--	--	--	47.7+/-2.7%{1}	89.2%	--
FTU	48.9{2}	46.6{3}^[9]	50.8{2}^[9]	42.6+/-2.1{2}	88.3%	-8.2^[9]
LP	45.9{6}	45.9{5}	49.7{5}^[9]	41.8+/-1.8{3}	79.7%	-7.9^[9]
CP	47.0{4}^[9]^[10]	45.2{6}	50.7{3}^[9]	41.3+/-2.2{4}	79.6%	-9.4^[9]
Scholarism	--	--	45.1{8}	41.0+/-2.8{5}	86.2%	-4.1^[9]
HKCTU	49.3{1}	48.7{1}	--	40.2+/-2.2{6}	78.4%	--
DAB	45.0{8}	43.3{8}^[9]	46.2{7}^[9]	40.0+/-2.5{7}	86.9%	-6.2^[9]
DP	45.8{7}^[9]	43.8{7}^[9]	48.5{6}^[9]	39.7+/-2.0{8}	85.9%	-8.8^[9]
LSD	37.8{9}	37.5{9}	42.3{9}^[9]	34.4+/-2.4{9}^[11]	80.2%	-7.9^[9]
PP	36.3{10}	35.2{10}	41.3{10}^[9]	34.4+/-2.5{10}^[11]	85.0%	-6.9^[9]
NPP	47.0{3}^[10]	46.2{4}	49.8 ^[8] ^[9]	41.5+/-2.3	73.9%	-8.3^[9]
Labour Party	47.2^[8]^[9]	46.4 ^[8]	50.0{4}^[9]	41.3+/-2.2	70.9%	-8.7^[9]
NWS	48.6 ^[8]	49.8 ^[8]	55.9{1}^[9]	--	--	--
ADPL	46.8{5}^[9]	48.5{2}	54.0 ^[8] ^[9]	--	--	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] In two decimal places, the ratings of NPP and CP are 46.98 and 46.97 respectively. Therefore, NPP and CP ranked at 3rd and 4th places respectively.
[11] In three decimal places, the ratings of LSD and PP are 34.358 and 34.355 respectively. Therefore, LSD and PP ranked at 9th and 10th places respectively.

Findings obtained in late-October showed that, the most popular political group was The Hong Kong Federation of Students (HKFS) which attained 47.7 marks. Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Liberal Party (LP), Civic Party (CP), Scholarism, Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU) and Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) scored 42.6, 41.8, 41.3, 41.0, 40.2 and 40.0 marks respectively and ranked 2nd to 7th. The 8th to 10th places went to Democratic Party (DP), League of Social Democrats (LSD) and People Power (PP), attaining 39.7, 34.4 and 34.4 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 42.9 marks. For this latest survey, New People’s Party (NPP) and Labour Party obtained a support rating of 41.5 and 41.3 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	12-18/10/13	17-20/2/14	25-30/6/14	20-23/10/14	No. of times on top 10	Average rating ^[12]	Overall ranking^[13]
FTU	48.9	46.6	50.8	42.6	4	47.2	{1}
CP	47.0	45.2	50.7	41.3	4	46.1	{2}
LP	45.9	45.9	49.7	41.8	4	45.8	{3}
DP	45.8	43.8	48.5	39.7	4	44.5	{4}
DAB	45.0	43.3	46.2	40.0	4	43.6	{5}
LSD	37.8	37.5	42.3	34.4	4	38.0	{6}
PP	36.3	35.2	41.3	34.4	4	36.8	{7}
HKCTU	49.3	48.7	--	40.2	3	46.1	{8}
ADPL	46.8	48.5	--	--	2	47.6	{9}
NPP	47.0	46.2	--	--	2	46.6	{10}
Scholarism	--	--	45.1	41.0	2	43.0	{11}
NWS	--	--	55.9	--	1	55.9	{12}
Labour Party	--	--	50.0	--	1	50.0	{13}
HKFS	--	--	--	47.7	1	47.7	{14}

[12] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
[13] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, seven political groups were listed for four times, FTU and CP achieved average ratings of 47.2 and 46.1 marks, and came first and second respectively. Meanwhile, the 3rd to 7th ranks fell to LP, DP, DAB, LSD and PP, with respective average ratings of 45.8, 44.5, 43.6, 38.0 and 36.8 marks. HKCTU was listed three times and now ranked the 8th with an average rating of 46.1 marks. ADPL, NPP and Scholarism were listed twice with average ratings of 47.6, 46.6 and 43.0 marks respectively, now ranked the 9th to 11th. Furthermore, NWS, Labour Party and HKFS were listed once with average ratings of 55.9, 50.0 and 47.7 marks respectively, now ranking the 12th to 14th.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 25 to 30, 2014 while this survey was conducted from October 20 to 23, 2014. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

21/10/14	The government and Hong Kong Federation of Students start the first dialogue but both parties have not reached a consensus at the moment.
20/10/14	High court grants injunctions for Mong Kok and Admiralty.
9/10/14	The HK government announces to cancel the talks with Hong Kong Federation of Students.
8/10/14	Business owners file a petition at court to claim for their lost due to Occupy Central.
27/9/14	Occupy Central starts earlier than said.
26/9/14	Students break into Civic Square; Joshua Wong is arrested.
21/9/14	Students start a 5 day long boycott of classes.
31/8/14	The National People’s Congress Standing Committee approves electing Hong Kong’s chief executive in 2017 proposal by vote.
23/7/14	Five pan democrats received donations from Jimmy Lai Chee-ying but have not declared by law may face ICAC investigation because of conflict of interests.
3/7/14	C.Y. Leung has thrown a tumbler by Raymond Wong in Legislative Council during the question-and-answer session.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey of ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ conducted in October shows that the Hong Kong Federation of Students passes the recognition benchmark for the first time to enter the ‘top 10’ list and also ranks first, but with a rating score of less than 50. As for other political groups on the list, all ratings are less than 43, and the bottom three even get less than 40. All political groups have become losers in the Occupy Movement. In terms of support ratings, compared to four months ago, the support ratings of all political groups which were also rated last time have gone down significantly. FTU, DAB, DP, HKCTU and CP all drop to their record lows since they first appeared on the list, meaning 1991, 1992, 1994, 1999 and 2006 respectively. Compared to the last survey, 8 of the top 10 political groups in the last survey have managed to maintain their place in the ‘top 10’, while the HKFS and HKCTU enter the list to replace NWS and Labour Party. In terms of relative rankings, HKFS ranks first with a low score. FTU remains at the second place, LP goes up two positions to rank third, Civic Party goes down 1 position to rank 4th, while Scholarism goes up three positions to rank 5th. HKCTU re-enters the list since February this year to rank 6th. DAB remains at the 7th position. DP goes down two positions to rank 8th. Meanwhile, LSD and PP remain at the 9th and 10th positions respectively. It should be noted, however, that our ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

November 11, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials