HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

(1) The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has just completed a test of onsite voting under the “civil referendum” project. The system has proved to be technically viable and can be used any time. The question of whether to use the system to resolve conflicts is non-technical in nature, it would have to be decided by the demonstrators themselves.

(2) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 56 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 57th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. Moreover, POP’s original plan to launch a “POP Education Page” is now put on hold due to the prevailing social situation.

POP interviewed 1,012 Hong Kong people between 6 and 9 October, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung drops significantly compared with two weeks ago, now at 40.6 marks. This is a new low since November 2013, and also the second lowest since he became CE. Leung’s net approval rate now stands at negative 38 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, all three of them have gained in popularity figures compared to one month ago, while those of CS Carrie Lam and FS John Tsang have increased more significantly. The latest support rating of Carrie Lam is 56.3 marks, her approval rate 53%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 37 percentage points. The latest support rating of John Tsang is 58.7 marks, approval rate 55%, disapproval rate 15%, and net popularity positive 40 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.0 marks, approval rate 29%, disapproval rate 23%, giving a net popularity of positive 6 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang has again replaced Carrie Lam to become the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 9 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 3 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan registered significant changes in net approval rates, down by 27 percentage points and up by 14, 10 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 17 and 31 percentage points respectively. The net approval rate of Lai Tung-kwok has dropped remarkably to his all-time record low, now at zero, probably related to the recent incident of occupying movement. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 74 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Anthony Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Lai Tung-kwok, Gregory So, Tsang Tak-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Raymond Tam and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45 again, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] In one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing were 11.1 and 10.7 percentage points. Thus, they ranked sixth and seventh at that time.
[17] In two decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam were 2.61 and 2.57 percentage points. Thus, they ranked eighth and ninth at that time.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 40.6 marks, and 23% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 38 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 56.3, 58.7 and 47.0 marks, and 53%, 55% and 29% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 37, positive 40 and positive 6 percentage points respectively.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 4 to 11 September, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 6 to 9 October, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

Our latest survey conducted about one week after the occupying movement had started shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung drops significantly compared with two weeks ago, now at 40.6 marks. This is a new low since November 2013, and also the second lowest since he became CE. Leung’s net approval rate now stands at negative 38 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, all three of them have gained in popularity figures compared to one month ago, while those of CS Carrie Lam and FS John Tsang have increased more significantly. The latest support rating of Carrie Lam is 56.3 marks, her approval rate 53%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 37 percentage points. The latest support rating of John Tsang is 58.7 marks, approval rate 55%, disapproval rate 15%, and net popularity positive 40 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.0 marks, approval rate 29%, disapproval rate 23%, giving a net popularity of positive 6 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang has again replaced Carrie Lam to become the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 9 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 3 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan registered significant changes in net approval rates, down by 27 percentage points and up by 14, 10 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 17 and 31 percentage points respectively. The net approval rate of Lai Tung-kwok has dropped remarkably to his all-time record low, now at zero, probably related to the recent incident of occupying movement. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 74 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Anthony Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Lai Tung-kwok, Gregory So, Tsang Tak-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Raymond Tam and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

• October 21, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of Top 10 Legislative Councillors