HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on September 30, 2014

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 55 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 56th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. Moreover, POP’s original plan to launch a “POP Education Page” is now put on hold due to the prevailing social situation.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between 17 and 22 September 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey completed just when the students go on strike shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 43.2 marks, still below the 45 mark alert level. His approval rate is 21%, disapproval rate 57%, giving a net popularity of negative 35 percentage points, not yet challenged by the new wave of mass movement. For the SAR Government, compared to the last survey, its popularity has not changed much, with net satisfaction rate at negative 20 percentage points, also not yet challenged by the ongoing mass movement. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all five items have registered negative values again. They are relations with the Central Government at negative 3 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at negative 6 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 15 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 21 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 22 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, all five indicators have remained stable. The net popularity of how the SAR Government handles its relations with the Central Government has registered the worst figure since July 1997, probably related to the political reform. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 64%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45 again, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 63.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
17-22/9/2014	1,006	63.9%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	7-10/7/14	21-24/7/14	31/7-6/8/14	14-20/8/14	4-11/9/14	17-22/9/14	Latest Change
Sample base	1,008	1,017	1,012	1,018	1,000	1,006	--
Overall response rate	67.9%	68.3%	64.7%	66.5%	63.8%	63.9%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	42.7^[9]	46.1^[9]	44.1^[9]	45.0	42.0^[9]	43.2+/-1.8	+1.2
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	23%	26%	24%	25%	22%	21+/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	61%^[9]	55%^[9]	56%	58%	61%	57+/-3%	-4%^[9]
Net approval rate	-38%^[9]	-29%^[9]	-32%	-33%	-39%^[9]	-35+/-5%	+4%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	29%	--	26%	--	25+/-3%	-1%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	44%	--	45%	--	45+/-4%	--
Net satisfaction rate	--	-15%	--	-18%	--	-20+/-7%	-2%
Mean value^[8]	--	2.7 (Base=656)	--	2.6 (Base=610)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=609)	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 625.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 43.2 marks, and 21% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 35 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 25% were satisfied, whereas 45% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 20 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows, in descending order of net satisfaction rates:

Date of survey	23-26/9/13	16-19/12/13	24-27/3/14	16-19/6/14	17-22/9/14	Latest Change^[10]
Sample base^[10]	566-589	545-691	555-600	637-713	618-639	--
Overall response rate	63.8%	68.6%	68.7%	68.4%	63.9%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[11]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[12]	44%^[13]	41%	41%	37%	34+/-4%	-3%
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	26%	32%^[13]	33%	38%^[13]	37+/-4%	-1%
Net satisfaction rate	18%^[13]	9%^[13]	8%	-1%^[13]	-3+/-7%	-2%
Mean value^[12]	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=507)	3.0+/-0.1^[13] (Base=489)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=523)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=599)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=574)	-0.1
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[12]	38%^[13]	31%^[13]	36%	36%	34+/-4%	-2%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	36%^[13]	39%	38%	37%	40+/-4%	+3%
Net satisfaction rate	2%^[13]	-8%^[13]	-2%	-1%	-6+/-7%	-5%
Mean value^[12]	2.9+/-0.1^[13] (Base=572)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=668)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=585)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=627)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=621)	-0.1
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[12]	37%^[13]	29%^[13]	29%	32%	29+/-4%	-3%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	35%^[13]	49%^[13]	47%	50%	45+/-4%	-5%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	2%^[13]	-20%^[13]	-18%	-18%	-15+/-7%	+3%
Mean value^[12]	2.9+/-0.1^[13] (Base=530)	2.6+/-0.1^[13] (Base=571)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=528)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=678)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=602)	--
Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[12]	34%^[13]	26%^[13]	33%^[13]	27%^[13]	27+/-4%	--
Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	44%^[13]	48%	43%^[13]	52%^[13]	48+/-4%	-4%
Net satisfaction rate	-10%^[13]	-23%^[13]	-10%^[13]	-25%^[13]	-21+/-7%	+4%
Mean value^[12]	2.8+/-0.1^[13] (Base=571)	2.6+/-0.1^[13] (Base=576)	2.8+/-0.1^[13] (Base=556)	2.6+/-0.1^[13] (Base=649)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=617)	--
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[12]	28%	25%	24%	23%	27+/-4%	+4%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	48%	52%	50%	52%	49+/-4%	-3%
Net satisfaction rate	-20%	-27%	-27%	-29%	-22+/-7%	+7%
Mean value^[12]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=532)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=526)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=549)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=608)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=570)	--

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government’s handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a net satisfaction rate of negative 3 percentage points. The Government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity and protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a net satisfaction rate of negative 6 and negative 15 percentage points respectively. That in improving people’s livelihood attained a net satisfaction rate of negative 21 percentage points. Finally, the net satisfaction rate of the Government’s performance in developing democracy stands at negative 22 percentage points. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 2.8, 2.8, 2.6, 2.6 and 2.5 respectively, which are in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 16 to 19 June, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 22 September, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

22/9/14	Xi Jinping meets with a delegation of business leaders from Hong Kong.
21/9/14	Students start a 5 day long boycott of classes.
17/9/14	The government announces the future railway development blueprint.
8/9/14	Students plan to boycott of classes to protest against Beijing's election reform proposal, anti-Occupy Central group unveils hotline for the public to report striking school students.
5/9/14	Taiwan's tainted oil was sold to the market.
3/9/14	Tung Chee-hwa and Christopher Francis Patten share their opinions on Hong Kong's political reform.
31/8/14	The National People’s Congress Standing Committee approves electing Hong Kong’s chief executive in 2017 's proposal by vote.
28/8/14	The Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) searches home of Jimmy Lai Chee-yin and Lee Cheuk-yan.
18/8/14	The Alliance for Peace and Democracy announces that 250,000 people participated in “8.17 Peace and Democracy Day”.
7/8/14	Director of LOCPG Zhang Xiaoming says the implementation of universal suffrage in Hong Kong must be viewed from the perspective of national security.
15/7/14	CE CY Leung states in the report on political reform that mainstream opinion in Hong Kong holds that only a nominating committee should have the power to put up chief executive candidates.
8/7/14	People in the financial sector fear that Occupy Central will harm Hong Kong's economy.
1/7/14	Many newspapers report the news of July 1 March.
29/6/14	Over 790,000 people cast votes in “6.22 Civil Referendum”.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our survey completed just when the students go on strike shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 43.2 marks, still below the 45 mark alert level. His approval rate is 21%, disapproval rate 57%, giving a net popularity of negative 35 percentage points, not yet challenged by the new wave of mass movement. For the SAR Government, compared to the last survey, its popularity has not changed much, with net satisfaction rate at negative 20 percentage points, also not yet challenged by the ongoing mass movement. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all five items have registered negative values again. They are relations with the Central Government at negative 3 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at negative 6 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 15 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 21 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 22 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, all five indicators have remained stable. The net popularity of how the SAR Government handles its relations with the Central Government has registered the worst figure since July 1997, probably related to the political reform. As for the other reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’. Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45 again, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.”

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”

Future Release (Tentative)

October 7, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Media Performance