HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

Press Release on September 16, 2014

Special Announcements

(1) Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has uploaded the full set of video record of the “August 17 Rally” onto the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk). People can download the videos from the ‘Video of August 17 “Walk for Peace and Democracy” Rally Feature Page’, and do their own headcount of the Rally. Together with the video records of July 1 Rallies from 2011 to 2014 and New Year Rallies of 2013 and 2014, there are a total of 7 free sets of videos available for public consumption. Video clips at higher resolutions are also available for purchase at production cost. Details available at the feature page.

(2) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 54 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 55th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP will soon put up a “POP Education Page” to centralize all raw data and educational material as a one-stop service.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong people between 4 and 11 September, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung drops below the 45 alert level again, to 42.0 marks. This is the third time in 2014, fifth time since he took office, and also a new low since November 2013. CE’s net approval rate now stands at negative 39 percentage points, which is the worst figure since December 2013. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 55.2 marks, her approval rate 46%, disapproval rate 17%, giving a net popularity of positive 29 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 54.8 marks, approval rate 45%, disapproval rate 15%, and net popularity positive 29 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 45.0 marks, approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 23%, giving a net popularity of positive 4 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, Carrie Lam becomes the most popular Secretary of Department again. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 7 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 5 have gone down. Among them, only Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Development Paul Chan registered significant changes in net approval rates, up by 9 percentage points and down by 7 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 2, 31 and 36 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 75 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Matthew Cheung falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Lai Tung-kwok, Carrie Lam, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, Tsang Tak-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 64%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung dropped below the warning line of 45 again, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 63.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
4-11/9/2014	1,000	63.8%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^{^{^[7]}} (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^{^{^[7]}} (maximum values)
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^{^{^[7]}} (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^{^{^[7]}} (maximum values)
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	16-19/6/14	7-10/7/14	21-24/7/14	31/7-6/8/14	14-20/8/14	4-11/9/14	Latest change
Sample base	1,018	1,008	1,017	1,012	1,018	1,000	--
Overall response rate	68.4%	67.9%	68.3%	64.7%	66.5%	63.8%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error ^[8]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	45.6	42.7^[9]	46.1 ^[9]	44.1 ^[9]	45.0	42.0+/-1.8	-3.0^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	26%	23%	26%	24%	25%	22+/-3%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	57%	61%^[9]	55%^[9]	56%	58%	61+/-3%	+3%
Net approval rate	-31%	-38%^[9]	-29%^[9]	-32%	-33%	-39+/-5%	-6% ^[9]

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	5-8/5/14	3-6/6/14	7-10/7/14	31/7-6/8/14	4-11/9/14	Latest change
Sample base^[10]	522-542	521-554	675-698	568-660	554-632	--
Overall response rate	64.3%	68.4%	67.9%	64.7%	63.8%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[11]	--
Rating of CS Carrie Lam	61.9	59.1^[12]	55.9^[12]	54.9	55.2+/-1.9	+0.3
Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam	57%	52%^[12]	45%^[12]	44%	46+/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam	9%	12%	18%^[12]	18%	17+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	48%	40%^[12]	27%^[12]	26%	29+/-6%	+3%
Rating of FS John Tsang	56.4	55.5	53.8	56.3^[12]	54.8+/-1.7	-1.5
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	50%	43%^[12]	43%	48%^[12]	45+/-4%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	16%	16%	20%^[12]	15%^[12]	15+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	34%	27%^[12]	23%	33%^[12]	29+/-6%	-4%
Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen	51.8	51.9	46.6^[12]	49.4^[12]	45.0+/-2.3	-4.4^[12]
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen	29%	31%	26%^[12]	28%	27+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen	17%	16%	27%^[12]	20%^[12]	23+/-4%	+3%
Net approval rate	12%	15%	-1%^[12]	7%^[12]	4+/-6%	-3%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

Date of survey	7-10/7/14		31/7-6/8/14		4-11/9/14		Latest change
Sample base ^[13]	577-631		575-654		576-613		--
Overall response rate	67.9%		64.7%		63.8%		--
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	% & error ^[14]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man	622	76%^[15]	604	75%	580	80+/-3%	+5%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man	622	5%	604	5%	580	6+/-2%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	71%^[15]	--	70%	--	75+/-5%	+5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	631	46%	622	45%	601	53+/-4%	+8%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	631	16%	622	14%	601	12+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	--	30%	--	32%	--	41+/-6%	+9%^[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok	602	40%^[15]	600	40%	585	46+/-4%	+6%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok	602	25%^[15]	600	19%^[15]	585	19+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	15%^[15]	--	21%	--	27+/-6%	+6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	612	36%	611	35%	613	36+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	612	9%	611	10%	613	11+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	27%	--	26%	--	25+/-5%	-1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang	589	27%	575	26%	592	26+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang	589	10%	575	10%	592	11+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	18%	--	16%	--	15+/-5%	-1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung	598	33%	654	32%	576	35+/-4%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung	598	25%	654	21%^[15]	576	21+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	8%	--	11%^[16]	--	13+/-6%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	598	30%	608	33%	590	33+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	598	24%	608	22%	590	24+/-4%	+2%
Net approval rate	--	6%	--	11%^[16]	--	9+/-6%	-2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	577	30%	594	27%	600	32+/-4%	+5%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	577	27%	594	25%	600	27+/-4%	+2%
Net approval rate	--	4%	--	3%^[17]	--	5+/-6%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	590	26%	611	26%	602	27+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	590	22%	611	23%	602	25+/-4%	+2%
Net approval rate	--	3%	--	3%^[17]	--	2+/-6%	-1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	614	24%^[15]	621	24%	587	26+/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	614	30%	621	29%	587	28+/-4%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	-6%^[15]	--	-5%	--	-2+/-6%	+3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng	623	17%	590	16%	596	20+/-3%	+4%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng	623	50%	590	50%	596	50+/-4%	--
Net approval rate	--	-33%	--	-35%	--	-31+/-6%	+4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan	595	17%	626	20%	578	18+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan	595	54%	626	49%^[15]	578	54+/-4%	+5%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	-37%	--	-29%^[15]	--	-36+/-6%	-7%^[15]

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] In one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing are 11.1 and 10.7 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked sixth and seventh this time.
[17] In two decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam are 2.61 and 2.57 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked eighth and ninth this time.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 42.0 marks, and 22% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 39 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 55.2, 54.8 and 45.0 marks, and 46%, 45% and 27% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 29, positive 29 and positive 4 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 75 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok with net approval rates of positive 41 and 27 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan ranked 4th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 25, positive 15, positive 13, positive 9, positive 5, positive 2, negative 2, negative 31 and negative 36 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 31 July to 6 August, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 11 September, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

8/9/14	Students plan to boycott of classes to protest against Beijing's election reform proposal, anti-Occupy Central group unveils hotline for the public to report striking school students.
5/9/14	Taiwan's tainted oil was sold to the market.
3/9/14	Tung Chee-hwa and Christopher Francis Patten share their opinions on Hong Kong's political reform.
2/9/14	Li Fei meets with Hong Kong legal professionals to explain the decision on Hong Kong's political reform.
31/8/14	The National People’s Congress Standing Committee approves electing Hong Kong’s chief executive in 2017 proposal by vote.
29/8/14	The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will make decision on political reform soon, founders of Occupy Central said there will be a series of protest activities.
28/8/14	The Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) searches home of Jimmy Lai Chee-yin and Lee Cheuk-yan.
20/8/14	Nelson Chow Wing-sun proposes a retirement pension scheme for the elderly funded by an old-age payroll tax.
18/8/14	The Alliance for Peace and Democracy announces that 250,000 people participated in “8.17 Peace and Democracy Day”.
15/8/14	Zhang Xiaoming meets with the Democratic Party and addresses 4 points on political reform.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

Our latest survey conducted in the first half of September shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung drops below the 45 alert level again, to 42.0 marks. This is the third time in 2014, fifth time since he took office, and also a new low since November 2013. CE’s net approval rate now stands at negative 39 percentage points, which is the worst figure since December 2013.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 55.2 marks, her approval rate 46%, disapproval rate 17%, giving a net popularity of positive 29 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 54.8 marks, approval rate 45%, disapproval rate 15%, and net popularity positive 29 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 45.0 marks, approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 23%, giving a net popularity of positive 4 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, Carrie Lam becomes the most popular Secretary of Department again.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 7 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 5 have gone down. Among them, only Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Development Paul Chan registered significant changes in net approval rates, up by 9 percentage points and down by 7 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 2, 31 and 36 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 75 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Matthew Cheung falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Lai Tung-kwok, Carrie Lam, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, Tsang Tak-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (80%)

“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (53%)

“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (46%) ^[18]; CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (46%)^[18]; FS John Tsang Chun-wah (45%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (35%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (33%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (32%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (27%)^[19]; Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (27%) ^[19] ; Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (26%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (36%, 47%); Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai (26%, 37%)

“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Leung Chun-ying (61%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (50%); Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (54%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

[18] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok and CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor are 46.3% and 46.0%.
[19] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen are 27.1% and 26.7%.

As the support rating of CE CY Leung dropped below the warning line of 45 again, I reprint once more the abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”

Future Release (Tentative)

September 23, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Trust and confidence indicators