HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of Executive CouncillorsBack

(1) Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has uploaded the full set of video record of the “August 17 Rally” onto the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk). People can download the videos from the ‘Video of August 17 “Walk for Peace and Democracy” Rally Feature Page’, and do their own headcount of the Rally. Together with the video records of July 1 Rallies from 2011 to 2014 and New Year Rallies of 2013 and 2014, there are a total of 7 free sets of videos available for public consumption. Video clips at higher resolutions are also available for purchase at production cost. Details available at the feature page.

(2) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 54 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP will soon put up a “POP Education Page” to centralize all raw data and educational material as a one-stop service.

POP conducted a double stage survey on the ratings of Executive Councillors from late August to early September, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that although Regina Ip continues to top the list in the naming survey, Lam Woon-kwong surpasses her in the rating stage. Compared to four months ago, all five Councillors from last survey remain on the “top 5” list, but all their ratings have dropped except for Lam Woon-kwong, probably due to the recent argument on political reform. In terms of absolute ratings, only Lam Woon-kwong on the “top 5” list scores more than 50 marks, while those of Regina Ip, Fanny Law and Starry Lee have dropped to their respective record lows since they became Executive Councillors, and that of Cheng Yiu-tong drops to his record low since July 2003. In terms of relative rankings, Lam Woon-kwong and Regina Ip swap positions to rank first and second, Fanny Law remains at third place, while Cheng Yiu-tong and Starry Lee swap positions to rank fourth and fifth. It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 5” only includes non-official Councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other Councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known Councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.5 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 65%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 5 Executive Councillors is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 65.1% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 65.1% response rate. 
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of Executive Councillors. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census.

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our “Top 5 Executive Councillors” is similar to that of our “Top 10” series, it is explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our web page. The top Councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in late August. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level”, meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site. The sub-sample size for this survey is 646.
[8] The percentages of respondents who could name Bernard Chan, Cheung Chi-kong and Cheng Yiu-tong were 2.1%, 1.9% and 1.8%. Hence Bernard Chan ranked the 6th, Cheung Chi-kong ranked the 7th while Cheng Yiu-tong was placed at the 8th rank.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Anna Wu, Franklin Lam and Jeffrey Lam were 0.9%, 0.7% and 0.6%. Hence Anna Wu ranked the 9th, Franklin Lam ranked the 10th while Jeffrey Lam was placed at the 11th rank.
[10] The percentages of respondents who could name Laura Cha, Arthur Li and Andrew Liao were 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.1%. Hence Laura Cha ranked the 12th, Arthur Li ranked the 13th while Andrew Liao was placed at the 14th rank.
[11] The percentages of respondents who could name Bernard Chan and Starry Lee were 6.2% and 5.9%, so Bernard Chan ranked the 4th, while Starry Lee was placed at the 5th rank.
[12] The percentages of respondents who could name Laura Cha, Jeffrey Lam, Chow Chung-kong and Anna Wu were 1.3%, 0.834%, 0.832% and 0.6%. Hence Laura Cha ranked the 9th, Jeffrey Lam ranked the 10th, Chow Chung-kong ranked the 11th while Anna Wu was placed at the 12th rank.
[13] The percentages of respondents who could name Cheung Chi-kong and Fanny Law were 3.1% and 2.9%, so Cheung Chi-kong ranked the 5th, while Fanny Law was placed at the 6th rank.
[14] The percentages of respondents who could name Cheng Yiu-tong and Laura Cha were 2.4% and 1.5%, so Cheng Yiu-tong ranked the 7th, while Laura Cha was placed at the 8th rank.
[15] The percentages of respondents who could name Jeffrey Lam and Anna Wu were 1.4% and 0.7%, so Jeffrey Lam ranked the 9th, while Anna Wu was placed at the 10th rank.
[16] The percentages of respondents who could name Arthur Li, Chow Chung-kong, Andrew Liao and Cheung Hok-ming were 0.5%, 0.2%, 0.11% and 0.08%. Hence Arthur Li ranked the 11th, Chow Chung-kong ranked the 12th, Andrew Liao ranked the 13th while Cheung Hok-ming was placed at the 14th rank.
[17] The percentages of respondents who could name Cheng Yiu-tong, Fanny Law and Bernard Chan were 3.1%, 2.9% and 2.8%. Hence Cheng Yiu-tong ranked the 4th, Fanny Law ranked the 5th while Bernard Chan was placed at the 6th rank.
[18] The percentages of respondents who could name Chow Chung-kong, Arthur Li, Jeffrey Lam and Laura Cha were 1.2%, 1.1%, 0.8% and 0.7%. Hence Chow Chung-kong ranked the 8th, Arthur Li ranked the 9th, Jeffrey Lam ranked the 10th while Laura Cha was placed at the 11th rank.
[19] The percentages of respondents who could name Andrew Liao, Anna Wu and Cheung Hok-ming were 0.14%, 0.13% and 0.09%. Hence Andrew Liao ranked the 12th, Anna Wu ranked the 13th while Cheung Hok-ming was placed at the 14th rank.
[20] The percentages of respondents who could name Starry Lee and Lam Woon-kwong were 5.8% and 5.6%, so Starry Lee ranked the 3rd, while Lam Woon-kwong was placed at the 4th rank.
[21] The percentages of respondents who could name Laura Cha and Cheung Chi-kong were 2.5% and 1.7%, so Laura Cha ranked the 7th, while Cheung Chi-kong was placed at the 8th rank.
[22] The percentages of respondents who could name Jeffrey Lam, Anna Wu and Arthur Li were 1.2%, 1.1480% and 1.1479%. Hence Jeffrey Lam ranked the 9th, Anna Wu ranked the 10th while Arthur Li was placed at the 11th rank.
[23] The percentages of respondents who could name Chow Chung-kong, Cheung Hok-ming and Andrew Liao were 0.3%, 0.10% and 0.06%. Hence Chow Chung-kong ranked the 12th, Cheung Hok-ming ranked the 13th while Andrew Liao was placed at the 14th rank.

The naming survey conducted in late August showed that Regina Ip was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 14%. Fanny Law, Starry Lee, Lam Woon-kwong, Bernard Chan and Cheng Yiu-tong with recognition rates of 8%, 6%, 6%, 5% and 4%, and ranked the 2nd to 6th. However, 14% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 66% had no clue.

The 6 Councillors who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late August to early September, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed Councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 Councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

[24] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level”, meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.5 marks at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[25] Barry Cheung resigned from the Executive Council on 24 May 2013.
[26] Not a non-official Executive Councillor during the survey period.
[27] Recognition rate fell outside top 5 during rating stage, so per poll rating and related changes are presented only for rough reference and not counted in yearly average.
[28] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest rating survey conducted in late August to early September showed that Lam Woon-kwong was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 52.8 marks. The 2nd rank went to Regina Ip with 49.1 marks respectively. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Fanny Law, Cheng Yiu-tong and Starry Lee with 42.1, 40.7 and 40.6 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 45.1 marks. For this latest survey, Bernard Chan obtained a support rating of 53.1 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

[29] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
[30] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 5, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that four non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. Regina Ip, Lam Woon-kwong, Fanny Law and Starry Lee ranked 1st to 4th places respectively and achieved average ratings of 52.8, 52.0, 45.6 and 44.4 marks. Cheng Yiu-tong has been on the list for three times with an average rating of 41.5 marks, ranked the 5th. Bernard Chan has been on the list once with an average rating of 50.3 marks, ranked the 6th.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from May 12 to 16, 2014 while this survey was conducted from August 28 to September 3, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “The latest ‘top 5 Executive Councillors’ survey shows that although Regina Ip continues to top the list in the naming survey, Lam Woon-kwong surpasses her in the rating stage. Compared to four months ago, all five Councillors from last survey remain on the ‘top 5’ list, but all their ratings have dropped except for Lam Woon-kwong, probably due to the recent argument on political reform. In terms of absolute ratings, only Lam Woon-kwong on the ‘top 5’ list scores more than 50 marks, while those of Regina Ip, Fanny Law and Starry Lee have dropped to their respective record lows since they became Executive Councillors, and that of Cheng Yiu-tong drops to his record low since July 2003. In terms of relative rankings, Lam Woon-kwong and Regina Ip swap positions to rank first and second, Fanny Law remains at third place, while Cheng Yiu-tong and Starry Lee swap positions to rank fourth and fifth. It should be noted, however, that our list of ‘top 5’ only includes non-official Councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other Councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known Councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the ‘Opinion Daily’ of our POP Site.”

• September 16, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials