HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on August 26, 2014

Special Announcements

(1) The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong conducted a headcount of the “August 17 Rally” participants on August 17, and released its preliminary results via the “HKU POP SITE” in the evening on the same day. Same as the July 1 rally, to facilitate the public to do their own headcount of the Rally, POP uploaded the full version of video record of the Rally to the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk) on August 22, together with the video records of July 1 Rallies from 2011 to 2014 and New Year Rallies of 2013 and 2014, there are a total of 7 free sets of videos available for public consumption. Video clips at higher resolutions are also available for purchase at production cost. Details available at the feature page.

(2) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 53 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 54th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP will soon put up a “POP Education Page” to centralize all raw data and educational material as a one-stop service.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,018 Hong Kong people between 14 and 20 August 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that various popularity figures of CE CY Leung have not changed much compared to two weeks ago. His support rating continues to fluctuate near the 45 mark alert level. CY Leung’s latest support rating stands at 45.0 marks, approval rate 25%, disapproval rate 58%, giving a net popularity of negative 33 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its popularity also has not changed much over the last month. Satisfaction rate now stands at 26%, while dissatisfaction rate at 45%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 18 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,018 successful interviews, not 1,018 x 66.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
14-20/8/2014	1,018	66.5%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	3-6/6/14	16-19/6/14	7-10/7/14	21-24/7/14	31/7-6/8/14	14-20/8/14	Latest change
Sample base	1,052	1,018	1,008	1,017	1,012	1,018	--
Overall response rate	68.4%	68.4%	67.9%	68.3%	64.7%	66.5%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error ^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	45.8^[9]	45.6	42.7^[9]	46.1 ^[9]	44.1 ^[9]	45.0+/-1.6	+0.9
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	24%	26%	23%	26%	24%	25+/-3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	60%^[9]	57%	61%^[9]	55%^[9]	56%	58+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	-35%^[9]	-31%	-38%^[9]	-29%^[9]	-32%	-33+/-5%	-1%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	26%	--	29%	--	26+/-4%	-3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	47%	--	44%	--	45+/-4%	+1%
Net satisfaction rate	--	-21%	--	-15%	--	-18+/-7%	-3%
Mean value^[8]	--	2.6 (Base=616)	--	2.7 (Base =656)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=610)	-0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 619.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 45.0 marks, and 25% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 33 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 26% were satisfied, whereas 45% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 18 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive and the satisfaction rate of SARG performance by respondents’ age, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

Date of survey: 14-20/8/2014		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE^[10]	Support	9+/-4% (17)	22+/-4% (81)	34+/-5% (152)	25+/-3% (250)
	Oppose	86+/-5% (159)	62+/-5% (229)	43+/-5% (191)	58%+/-3% (579)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	5+/-3% (9)	16+/-4% (61)	22+/-4% (99)	17+/-2% (169)
	Total	100% (185)	100% (370)	100% (443)	100% (998)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 14-20/8/2014		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction / dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[11]	Satisfied	11+/-6% (13)	22+/-6% (48)	37+/-6% (99)	26+/-4% (160)
	Half-half	23+/-8% (28)	30+/-6% (65)	28+/-6% (76)	28+/-4% (170)
	Dissatisfied	67+/-8% (83)	49+/-7% (108)	31+/-6% (84)	45+/-4% (275)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	0+/-0% (0)	0+/-0% (0)	4+/-2% (10)	2+/-1% (10)
	Total	100% (125)	100% (222)	100% (268)	100% (615)
	Mean value	2.1+/-0.2 (125)	2.5+/-0.1 (222)	3.0+/-0.1 (259)	2.6+/-0.1 (605)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 21 to 24 July, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 14 to 20 August, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

18/8/14	The Alliance for Peace and Democracy announces that 250,000 people participated in “8.17 Peace and Democracy Day”.
15/8/14	Zhang Xiaoming meets with the Democratic Party and addresses 4 points on political reform.
12/8/14	Zhang Xiaoming will meet the pan-democrat legislative councilors in four small-group meetings to discuss political reform.
7/8/14	Director of LOCPG Zhang Xiaoming says the implementation of universal suffrage in Hong Kong must be viewed from the perspective of national security.
4/8/14	Jimmy Lai Chee-ying donated money to three legislative councillors and spent over three millions on 6.22 Civil Referendum.
29/7/14	China’s former security chief Zhou Yongkang is being investigated by CPC.
23/7/14	Five pan democrats received donations from Jimmy Lai Chee-ying but have not declared by law may face ICAC investigation because of conflict of interests.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that various popularity figures of CE CY Leung have not changed much compared to two weeks ago. His support rating continues to fluctuate near the 45 mark alert level. CY Leung’s latest support rating stands at 45.0 marks, approval rate 25%, disapproval rate 58%, giving a net popularity of negative 33 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its popularity also has not changed much over the last month. Satisfaction rate now stands at 26%, while dissatisfaction rate at 45%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 18 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

September 3, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 cross-strait political figures