HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

(1)  The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has decided to conduct a headcount of the “August 17 Rally” being organized by the Alliance for Peace and Democracy (The Alliance). The headcount and release protocol will be exactly the same as that of July 1 Rallies, details to be announced at the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk). Same as POP’s “July 1 Headcount Projects”, to facilitate the public to do their own headcount of the rally, POP will upload the full version of the headcount video to the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk) within 10 days after the rally. POP thanks the Alliance for inviting academic institutes to conduct headcounts, in order to promote scientific investigation.

(2) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of 52 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 53rd CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP will soon put up a “POP Education Page” to centralize all raw data and educational material as a one-stop service.

POP interviewed 1,012 Hong Kong people between July 31 and August 6, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung drops below the 45 alert level again, to 44.1 marks. This is the second time in 2014 and fourth time since he took office. CE’s net approval rate now stands at negative 32 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 54.9 marks, her approval rate 44%, disapproval rate 18%, giving a net popularity of positive 26 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 56.3 marks, approval rate 48%, disapproval rate 15%, and net popularity positive 33 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 49.4 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 20%, giving a net popularity of positive 7 percentage points. The support rating and net approval rate of Carrie Lam again hit record low since she took office, while John Tsang becomes the most popular Secretary of Department for the first time. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 5 have gone down and 1 remained unchanged. Among them, only Secretary for Development Paul Chan registered significant change in net approval rate, up by 8 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Gregory So, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng registered negative popularities, at negative 5, 29 and 35 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 70 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, no one falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of John Tsang, Matthew Cheung, Carrie Lam, Lai Tung-kwok, Wong Kam-sing, Anthony Cheung, Tsang Tak-sing, Gregory So and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan, Rimsky Yuen, Paul Tang and Raymond Tam can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Eddie Ng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung dropped below the warning line of 45 again, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing are 11.1 and 10.7 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked sixth and seventh this time.
[17] Based on the figures of latest survey, in two decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam are 2.61 and 2.57 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked eighth and ninth this time.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 44.1 marks, and 24% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 32 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 54.9, 56.3 and 49.4 marks, and 44%, 48% and 28% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 26, positive 33 and positive 7 percentage points respectively.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 7 to 10 July, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 31 July to 6 August, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

Our latest survey conducted in early August shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung drops below the 45 alert level again, to 44.1 marks. This is the second time in 2014 and fourth time since he took office. CE’s net approval rate now stands at negative 32 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 54.9 marks, her approval rate 44%, disapproval rate 18%, giving a net popularity of positive 26 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 56.3 marks, approval rate 48%, disapproval rate 15%, and net popularity positive 33 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 49.4 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 20%, giving a net popularity of positive 7 percentage points. The support rating and net approval rate of Carrie Lam again hit record low since she took office, while John Tsang becomes the most popular Secretary of Department for the first time.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 5 have gone down and 1 remained unchanged. Among them, only Secretary for Development Paul Chan registered significant change in net approval rate, up by 8 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Gregory So, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng registered negative popularities, at negative 5, 29 and 35 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 70 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, no one falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of John Tsang, Matthew Cheung, Carrie Lam, Lai Tung-kwok, Wong Kam-sing, Anthony Cheung, Tsang Tak-sing, Gregory So and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan, Rimsky Yuen, Paul Tang and Raymond Tam can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Eddie Ng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

• August 19, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Taiwan issues