HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on July 29, 2014

Special Announcements

(1) Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has uploaded the full set of video record of the July 1 Rally onto the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk). People can download the videos from the “July 1 Rally Feature page”, and do their own headcount of the Rally. Video clips at higher resolutions are also available for purchase at production cost. Details available at the feature page.

(2) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 51 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 52nd CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP will soon put up a “POP Education Page” to centralize all raw data and educational material as a one-stop service.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong people between 21 and 24 July 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has rebounded significantly compared to two weeks ago. His support rating goes up by 3.4 marks to 46.1 marks, while his approval rate is 26%, disapproval rate 55%, his net popularity increases by 9 percentage points to negative 29 percentage points, both better than those registered in June. The satisfaction rate of the SAR Government, on the other hand, stands at 29%, while dissatisfaction rate stands at 44%, giving a net satisfaction of negative 15 percentage points. The figures are also better than those of June. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,017 successful interviews, not 1,017 x 68.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
21-24/7/2014	1,017	68.3%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	5-8/5/14	17-22/5/14	3-6/6/14	16-19/6/14	7-10/7/14	21-24/7/14	Latest change
Sample base	1,005	1,005	1,052	1,018	1,008	1,017	--
Overall response rate	64.3%	66.8%	68.4%	68.4%	67.9%	68.3%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error ^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	48.5	47.9	45.8^[9]	45.6	42.7^[9]	46.1+/-1.7	+3.4^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	27%	27%	24%	26%	23%	26+/-3%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	55%	52%	60%^[9]	57%	61%^[9]	55+/-3%	-6%^[9]
Net approval rate	-27%	-25%	-35%^[9]	-31%	-38%^[9]	-29+/-5%	+9%^[9]
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^{^[8]}	--	29%	--	26%	--	29+/-3%	+3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^{^[8]}	--	43%	--	47%	--	44+/-4%	-3%
Net satisfaction rate	--	-14%	--	-21%	--	-15+/-6%	+6%
Mean value^{^[8]}	--	2.7 (Base=678)	--	2.6 (Base=616)	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=656)	+0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 670.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 46.1 marks, and 26% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 29 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 29% were satisfied, whereas 44% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 15 percentage points. The mean score is 2.7, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive and the satisfaction rate of SARG performance by respondents’ age, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

Date of survey: 21-24/7/2014		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE^[10]	Support	11+/-5% (20)	26+/-5% (97)	33+/-4% (147)	26+/-3% (264)
	Oppose	81+/-6% (150)	58+/-5% (219)	42+/-5% (187)	55+/-3% (557)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	8+/-4% (14)	16+/-4% (61)	24+/-4% (108)	18+/-2% (183)
	Total	100% (185)	100% (377)	100% (442)	100% (1,003)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 21-24/7/2014		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction / dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[11]	Satisfied	12+/-6% (15)	30+/-6% (71)	36+/-6% (105)	29+/-4% (192)
	Half-half	22+/-7% (29)	22+/-5% (54)	30+/-5% (89)	26+/-3% (172)
	Dissatisfied	66+/-8% (88)	47+/-6% (112)	31+/-5% (90)	43+/-4% (290)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	0+/-0% (0)	2+/-2% (4)	3+/-2% (10)	2+/-1% (14)
	Total	100% (133)	100% (241)	100% (294)	100% (668)
	Mean value	2.2+/-0.2 (133)	2.6+/-0.2 (237)	2.9+/-0.1 (283)	2.7+/-0.1 (653)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 16 to 19 June, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 21 to 24 July, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

23/7/14	Five pan democrats received donations from Jimmy Lai Chee-ying but have not declared by law may face ICAC investigation because of conflict of interests.
22/7/14	Lai Chee-ying made substantial donations to 5 pan-democratic LegCo members.
16/7/14	MTR releases the investigation report on the delay of express railway project, CEO Jay Walder will step down earlier than scheduled.
15/7/14	CE CY Leung states in the report on political reform that mainstream opinion in Hong Kong holds that only a nominating committee should have the power to put up chief executive candidates.
12/7/14	Legislative Council’s Finance Committee has to delay the handling of 17 proposals until the end of summer break.
11/7/14	CE CY Leung will soon submit a report on political reform to the NPCSC.
3/7/14	C.Y. Leung has thrown a tumbler by Raymond Wong in Legislative Council during the question-and-answer session.
1/7/14	Many newspapers report the news of July 1 March.
29/6/14	Over 790,000 people cast votes in “6.22 Civil Referendum”.
24/6/14	MPFA suggest “core fund” and set 0.75% as the maximum administration fee.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has rebounded significantly compared to two weeks ago. His support rating goes up by 3.4 marks to 46.1 marks, while his approval rate is 26%, disapproval rate 55%, his net popularity increases by 9 percentage points to negative 29 percentage points, both better than those registered in June. The satisfaction rate of the SAR Government, on the other hand, stands at 29%, while dissatisfaction rate stands at 44%, giving a net satisfaction of negative 15 percentage points. The figures are also better than those of June. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

August 5, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Social, freedom and legal indicators