HKU POP releases ratings of top 10 political groups Back

Press Release on July 3, 2014

Special Announcements

(1) Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong conducted a headcount of July 1 Rally participants on July 1, and released its preliminary results via the “HKU POP SITE” in the evening on the same day. Same as last year, to facilitate the public to do their own headcount of the Rally, POP will upload the full version of video record of the Rally to the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk) 10 days after the Rally.

(2) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 50 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP is planning to put up a “POP Education Page” to centralize all raw data and educational material as a one-stop service.

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on the rankings of the top 10 political groups in June 2014 by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the support ratings of all political groups which were also rated last time have gone up significantly. However only 4 out of the top 10 have reached 50 marks or above. They are NWS, FTU, Civic Party and Labour Party, while Labour Party and Scholarism both pass the recognition benchmark for the first time to enter the “top 10” at the 4th and 8th places. Compared to the last survey, 7 of the top 10 political groups in the last survey have managed to maintain their place in the “top 10”, while NWS, Labour Party and Scholarism enter the list to replace HKCTU, ADPL and NPP. In terms of relative rankings, NWS re-enters the list again since November 2012 to rank first. FTU goes up one position to rank second, while Civic Party goes up three positions to rank third. Labour Party enters the list for the first time since its establishment in December 2011 to rank 4th. LP remains at the 5th place. DP and DAB each goes up one position to rank the 6th and 7th. Meanwhile, Scholarism enters the list for the first time since it established in May 2011 to rank the 8th. LSD and PP remain at the 9th and 10th positions respectively. It should be noted, however, that our “Top 10 Political Groups” only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings of top ten political groups registered fall between +/-1.7 and +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 67%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey of top 10 political groups is 1,018 successful interviews, not 1,018 x 68.4% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is other 1,009 successful interviews, not 1,009 x 67.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2013 and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings^[6]
16-19/6/2014 (First stage naming survey)	1,018	68.4%	+/-3%
25-30/6/2014 (Second stage rating survey)	1,009	67.1%	+/-2.8

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our “Top ten political groups” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from June 16 to 19. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), People Power (PP), Civic Party (CP) and Liberal Party (LP) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from June 25 to 30, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:

Date of survey	20-25/6/2013	12-18/10/2013	17-20/2/2014	25-30/6/2014		Latest change
Sample base	574-698	518-584	538-647	552-609		--
Overall response rate	66.9%	66.6%	67.8%	67.1%		--
Finding / Recog rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	Recog %	--
NWS	--	48.6 ^[8]	49.8 ^[8]	55.9+/-1.9{1}	72.0%	+6.1^[9]
FTU	48.7{5}	48.9{2}	46.6{3}^[9]	50.8+/-2.1{2}	90.9%	+4.2^[9]
CP	50.4{3}^[9]	47.0{4}^[9]^[10]	45.2{6}	50.7+/-2.1{3}	79.4%	+5.5^[9]
Labour Party	49.6 ^[8] ^[9]	47.2^[8]^[9]	46.4 ^[8]	50.0+/-2.0{4}	73.2%	+3.6^[9]
LP	45.9{7}	45.9{6}	45.9{5}	49.7+/-1.7{5}	83.9%	+3.8^[9]
DP	48.1{6}	45.8{7}^[9]	43.8{7}^[9]	48.5+/-1.8{6}	90.1%	+4.7^[9]
DAB	43.7{8}	45.0{8}	43.3{8}^[9]	46.2+/-2.5{7}	88.7%	+2.9^[9]
Scholarism	--	--	--	45.1+/-2.8{8}	81.3%	--
LSD	38.9{9}	37.8{9}	37.5{9}	42.3+/-2.4{9}	83.6%	+4.8^[9]
PP	36.7{10}	36.3{10}	35.2{10}	41.3+/-2.4{10}	87.9%	+6.1^[9]
ADPL	52.1{1}^[9]	46.8{5}^[9]	48.5{2}	54.0+/-1.8 ^[8]	71.7%	+5.5^[9]
NPP	46.5 ^[8]	47.0{3}^[10]	46.2{4}	49.8+/-2.0^[8]	69.9%	+3.6^[9]
HKCTU	49.7{4}	49.3{1}	48.7{1}	--	--	--
HKASPDMC	51.7{2}	--	--	--	--	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] In two decimal places, the ratings of NPP and CP are 46.98 and 46.97 respectively. Therefore, NPP and CP ranked at 3rd and 4th places respectively.

Findings obtained in late-June showed that, the most popular political group was Neighbourhood and Worker’s Service Centre (NWS) which attained 55.9 marks. Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Civic Party (CP) and Labour Party scored 50.8, 50.7 and 50.0 marks respectively and ranked 2nd to 4th. The 5th to 10th places went to Liberal Party (LP), Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Scholarism, League of Social Democrats (LSD) and People Power (PP), attaining 49.7, 48.5, 46.2, 45.1, 42.3 and 41.3 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 51.4 marks. For this latest survey, Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People’s Livelihood (ADPL) and New People’s Party (NPP) obtained a support rating of 54.0 and 49.8 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	20-25/6/13	12-18/10/13	17-20/2/14	25-30/6/14	No. of times on top 10	Average rating ^[11]	Overall ranking^[12]
FTU	48.7	48.9	46.6	50.8	4	48.8	{1}
CP	50.4	47.0	45.2	50.7	4	48.3	{2}
LP	45.9	45.9	45.9	49.7	4	46.9	{3}
DP	48.1	45.8	43.8	48.5	4	46.6	{4}
DAB	43.7	45.0	43.3	46.2	4	44.6	{5}
LSD	38.9	37.8	37.5	42.3	4	39.1	{6}
PP	36.7	36.3	35.2	41.3	4	37.4	{7}
HKCTU	49.7	49.3	48.7	--	3	49.2	{8}
ADPL	52.1	46.8	48.5	--	3	49.1	{9}
NPP	--	47.0	46.2	--	2	46.6	{10}
NWS	--	--	--	55.9	1	55.9	{11}
HKASPDMC	51.7	--	--	--	1	51.7	{12}
Labour Party	--	--	--	50.0	1	50.0	{13}
Scholarism	--	--	--	45.1	1	45.1	{14}

[11] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
[12] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, seven political groups were listed for four times, FTU and CP achieved an average rating of 48.8 and 48.3 marks, and came first and second respectively. Meanwhile, the 3rd to 7th ranks fell to LP, DP, DAB, LSD and PP, with respective average ratings of 46.9, 46.6, 44.6, 39.1, and 37.4 marks. HKCTU and ADPL were listed three times while NPP was listed twice, now ranked the 8th to 10th with 49.2, 49.1 and 46.6 marks respectively. Furthermore, NWS, HKASPDMC, Labour Party and Scholarism were listed once with 55.9, 51.7, 50.0 and 45.1 marks respectively, now ranking the 11th to 14th.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from February 17 to 20, 2014 while this survey was conducted from June 25 to 30, 2014. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

30/6/14	Many newspapers report the news of July 1 March on the next day.
29/6/14	Over 790,000 people cast votes in “6.22 Civil Referendum”.
20/6/14	Over 400,000 people vote for reform plebiscite.
13/6/14	The Legislative Council’s Finance Committee meeting is forced to end due to the storming by the North East New Territories New Development Areas concern groups to Legislative Council building.
10/6/14	The Central government announces a white paper to reaffirm the relationship between China and HKSAR.
7/6/14	Different groups react to the action of Occupying Central.
4/6/14	HKASPDMC announces that around 180,000 people participate in the June Fourth candlelight vigil.
22/5/14	Legislative councilors protest at the question-and-answer session with Chief Executive, the meeting is adjourned.
7/5/14	Occupy Central with Love and Peace held the third deliberation day yesterday.
30/4/14	Legislative Council discusses Appropriation Bill of The 2014-2015 Budget.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey of ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ conducted in June shows that the support ratings of all political groups which were also rated last time have gone up significantly. However only 4 out of the top 10 have reached 50 marks or above. They are NWS, FTU, Civic Party and Labour Party, while Labour Party and Scholarism both pass the recognition benchmark for the first time to enter the ‘top 10’ at the 4th and 8th places. Compared to the last survey, 7 of the top 10 political groups in the last survey have managed to maintain their place in the ‘top 10’, while NWS, Labour Party and Scholarism enter the list to replace HKCTU, ADPL and NPP. In terms of relative rankings, NWS re-enters the list again since November 2012 to rank first. FTU goes up one position to rank second, while Civic Party goes up three positions to rank third. Labour Party enters the list for the first time since its establishment in December 2011 to rank 4th. LP remains at the 5th place. DP and DAB each goes up one position to rank the 6th and 7th. Meanwhile, Scholarism enters the list for the first time since it established in May 2011 to rank the 8th. LSD and PP remain at the 9th and 10th positions respectively. It should be noted, however, that our ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

July 8, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of disciplinary forces