HKU POP releases HKSAR Anniversary survey and forecasts July 1 rally study arrangementsBack

(1) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 50 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP is planning to put up a “POP Education Page” to centralize all raw data and educational material as a one-stop service.

(2) POP’s usual practice is to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also end point of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. Recently, POP issues a number of releases under the “HKSAR anniversary” survey series. Please see POP Site and also the “Future Releases” section of this press release for more information. Since the figures released today by POP come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted before July 2014, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for HKSAR anniversary stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running HKSAR anniversary reviews.

(3) Moreover, as in previous years, POP will conduct a headcount of July 1 Rally participants tomorrow, and releases its preliminary results via the “HKU POP SITE” in the evening, around 2 to 4 hours after the rally.

POP interviewed 1,018 Hong Kong people between 16 and 19 June, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. As the 17th Handover Anniversary draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has not changed much, remaining at the low point since 1998. Regarding people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s Hong Kong policies, this year’s overall figures are similar to those of last year, as net appraisal remains at negative 2 percentage points. However, negative appraisal has increased to 33% which is record high since this survey began in 1999. Indepth analyses show that the younger the respondent, the less proud one feels of becoming a Chinese national citizen, and also more negative about the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of net values needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP SITE the latest survey results related to the handover anniversary. The two questions are “people’s feeling of becoming a national citizen of China” and “people’s appraisal of the policy of Central Government on Hong Kong”. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

The survey results are tabulated below:

Results of the latest anniversary survey revealed that, 33% of the respondents were proud of becoming a national citizen of China after the handover, while 62% said they did not have any special feeling. As for the policy of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 31% of the respondents evaluated it positively, whereas 33% gave negative appraisal, giving a net appraisal of negative 2 percentage points. The mean score is 2.9 marks, meaning close to “half-half”.

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondent being proud of becoming a national citizen of China and Central Government’s policy on Hong Kong by age:

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. Yet, this press release is an exception. It is because for the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 20 to 25, 2013 while this survey was conducted from June 16 to 19, 2014. The two surveys were one year apart, and any of the significant events inside “Opinion Daily” in between might have affected people’s comments for the year past. Thus, this press release would not further select the events from “Opinion Daily”, but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records in the respective online section.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “As the 17th Handover Anniversary draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has not changed much, remaining at the low point since 1998. Regarding people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s Hong Kong policies, this year’s overall figures are similar to those of last year, as net appraisal remains at negative 2 percentage points. However, negative appraisal has increased to 33% which is record high since this survey began in 1999. Indepth analyses show that the younger the respondent, the less proud one feels of becoming a Chinese national citizen, and also more negative about the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong. Over the years, it has been our practice to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also end point of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption.”

• July 3, 2014 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 political groups

• July 8, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of disciplinary forces