HKU POP releases society appraisal Back

Press Release on June 26, 2014

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 50 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP is planning to put up a “POP Education Page” to centralize all raw data and educational material as a one-stop service.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,018 Hong Kong people from June 16 to 19, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that using a one-in-three choices method, people concern livelihood issues the most, followed by political and then economic issues. This is the first time since this survey began in 1992 that the percentage of people who concern political issues most goes higher than that of economic issues, probably due to ongoing discussions on political reforms. However, in terms of absolute ratings of importance, people’s concern over political issues is lower than that of economic issues, in-depth analysis shows that those most concerned with political issues also care a lot for other issues. As for the concern over livelihood issues, whether in terms of percentage or rating, it is still at the top. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current livelihood, political and economic conditions continue to be all negative, at negative 25, negative 54 and negative 1 percentage points respectively. People are still least satisfied with the current political condition. In-depth analysis shows that the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current political condition. The maximum sampling error of all percentages in the survey mentioned is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,018 successful interviews, not 1,018 x 68.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2% and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.16 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest findings of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]
16-19/6/2014	1,018	68.4%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[7] The figures shown in the “latest change” column of this press release have been tested after “rim weighting” data collected in this and last surveys. The structural effect of using the new weighting method is small to most figures, around -3% to +4% for percentage figures, around -0.1 to +0.1 for rating figures, while just some statistical significance tests are affected.

Recent figures of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	19-25/6/12	27/12/12-3/1/13	13-19/6/13	20-30/12/13	16-19/6/14	Latest Change
Sample base	1,048^[8]	1,007	1,040	1,019	1,018	--
Overall response rate	69.6%	65.3%	68.0%	67.3%	68.4%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[9]	--
Most concerned with livelihood problems^[10]	61%	63%	60%	58%	56+/-3%	-2%
Most concerned with political problems	10%^[11]	12%	13%	16%^[11]	22+/-3%	+6%^[11]
Most concerned with economic problems	26%	22%^[11]	24%	24%	18+/-2%	-6%^[11]
Rating on concern for livelihood problems^[10]	7.13^[11]	7.30^[11]	7.32	7.24	7.20+/-0.12	-0.04
Rating on concern for political problems	5.92^[11]	5.79	5.77	5.77	5.89+/-0.16	+0.12^[11]
Rating on concern for economic problems	7.07	7.20^[11]	7.02^[11]	6.98	6.76+/-0.12	-0.22^[11]

Date of survey^[11]	19-25/6/12	27/12/12-3/1/13	13-19/6/13	20-30/12/13	16-19/6/14	Latest Change
Sample base	1,048^[8]	1,007	1,040	1,019	1,018	--
Overall response rate	69.6%	65.3%	68.0%	67.3%	68.4%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[9]	--
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate^[10]^[12]	19%	19%	22%	19%	26+/-3%	+7%^[11]
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[10]^[12]	59%^[11]	49%^[11]	50%	56%	50+/-3%	-6%
Net satisfaction rate	-40%	-30%^[11]	-28%	-37%	-25+/-5%	+12%^[11]
Mean value^[12]	2.4+/-0.1 (Base =500)	2.6+/-0.1^[11] (Base =991)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base =1,025)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base =1,010)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=1,009)	+0.2
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate^[12]	17%^[11]	14%^[11]	13%	7%	11+/-2%	+4%^[11]
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	55%^[11]	55%	56%	69%	65+/-3%	-4%
Net satisfaction rate	-38%^[11]	-41%	-43%	-62%	-54+/-4%	+8%
Mean value^[12]	2.4+/-0.1^[11] (Base =490)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base =965)	2.3+/-0.1 (Base =941)	2.0+/-0.1 (Base =952)	2.1+/-0.1 (Base=936)	+0.1
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate^[12]	24%^[11]	29%^[11]	30%	30%	35+/-3%	+5%^[11]
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	44%	37%^[11]	39%	40%	35+/-3%	-5%^[11]
Net satisfaction rate	-20%^[11]	-8%^[11]	-9%	-10%	-1+/-5%	+9%^[11]
Mean value^[12]	2.7+/-0.1 (Base =498)	2.9+/-0.1^[11] (Base =987)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base =1,016)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base =1,004)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=987)	+0.1

[8]These questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned in the June 2012 survey, sub-sample sizes range from 501 to 532.
[9]All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.16 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level " when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10]The wordings used before the June 2010 survey were “social problems” and “social condition”. We take them to mean the same as “livelihood problems” and “livelihood condition” in the survey context.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

Latest survey showed that 56% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, 22% with political problems, while 18% attached their greatest concern to economic problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, political and economic problems were 7.20, 5.89 and 6.76 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people’s satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, political and economic conditions were 26%, 11% and 35% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 25, negative 54 and negative 1 percentage points. The mean scores of the livelihood, political and economic conditions were 2.6, 2.1 and 2.9, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their education attainment. According to their answers, we grouped them into primary or below, secondary, and tertiary or above. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ satisfaction with the present livelihood condition in Hong Kong by education attainment:

Date of survey：16-19/6/14		Primary or below	Secondary	Tertiary or above	Overall Sample
Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the present political condition in Hong Kong? ^[13]	Satisfied	13+/-4% (31)	11+/-3% (52)	9+/-3% (25)	11+/-2% (108)
	Half-half	15+/-5% (36)	20+/-4% (98)	10+/-4% (29)	16+/-2% (163)
	Dissatisfied	55+/-6% (129)	62+/-4% (302)	80+/-5% (227)	66+/-3% (658)
	Don't know / hard to say	17+/-5% (41)	7+/-2% (32)	1+/-1% (3)	8+/-2% (75)
	Total	100% (236)	100% (484)	100% (285)	100% (1,005)
	Mean value	2.2+/-0.2 (195)	2.1+/-0.1 (452)	1.9+/-0.1 (282)	2.1+/-0.1 (929)

[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from December 20 to 30, 2013 while this survey was conducted from June 16 to 19, 2014. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

16/6/14	People Power chairwoman is arrested yesterday. Different groups of people keep comments on the striking of Legislative Council on 13 June.
13/6/14	The Legislative Council’s Finance Committee meeting is forced to end due to the storming by the North East New Territories New Development Areas concern groups to Legislative Council building.
10/6/14	The Central government announces a white paper to reaffirm the relationship between China and HKSAR.
7/6/14	Different groups react to the action of Occupying Central.
4/6/14	HKASPDMC announces that around 180,000 people participate in the June Fourth candlelight vigil.
27/5/14	The Chief Executive CY Leung mentions to review the Individual Visit Scheme at a Commission on Strategic Development meeting.
22/5/14	Legislative councilors protest at the question-and-answer session with Chief Executive, the meeting is adjourned.
13/5/14	The government proposes to relax the restriction of double stamp duty for changing flat within six months and exempt double stamp duty for transaction of residential flat with parking space.
2/5/14	The government and MTR Corporation submit reports delayed High Speed Rail project to the Legislative Council.
26/2/14	Former Ming Pao Chief Editor Kevin Lau Chun-to is attacked in Sai Wan Ho.
17/2/14	Government officials condemn the anti-mainland-tourists demonstration in Tsim Sha Tsui.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “According to our latest survey, using a one-in-three choices method, people concern livelihood issues the most, followed by political and then economic issues. This is the first time since this survey began in 1992 that the percentage of people who concern political issues most goes higher than that of economic issues, probably due to ongoing discussions on political reforms. However, in terms of absolute ratings of importance, people’s concern over political issues is lower than that of economic issues, in-depth analysis shows that those most concerned with political issues also care a lot for other issues. As for the concern over livelihood issues, whether in terms of percentage or rating, it is still at the top. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current livelihood, political and economic conditions continue to be all negative, at negative 25, negative 54 and negative 1 percentage points respectively. People are still least satisfied with the current political condition. In-depth analysis shows that the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current political condition. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

June 30, 2014 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR anniversary survey
July 3, 2013 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 political groups