HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on June 24, 2014

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 49 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 50th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP is planning to put up a “POP Education Page” to centralize all raw data and educational material as a one-stop service.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,018 Hong Kong people between 16 and 19 June 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 45.6 marks, fluctuating above the 45 mark alert level. His approval rate is 26%, disapproval rate 57%, giving a net popularity of negative 31 percentage points. The figures did not change much as compared to two weeks ago. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its popularity has slightly worsened. Satisfaction rate goes down by 3 percentages points, while dissatisfaction rate goes up by 4 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 21 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all five items have registered negative values, which is the second time since September 2012. They are relations with the Central Government at negative 1 percentage point, maintaining economic prosperity at negative 1 percentage point, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 18 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 25 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 29 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, only the net satisfaction rate of relations with the Central Government and improving people’s livelihood have dropped significantly, while that of the other three remained stable. People’s dissatisfaction at how the SAR Government handles its relations with the Central Government now stands at 38%, which is the worst figures since 1997. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
^[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

^[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,030 successful interviews, not 1,030 x 68.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
^[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
^[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
^[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
16-19/6/2014	1,018	68.4%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	7-10/4/14	16-23/4/14	5-8/5/14	17-22/5/14	3-6/6/14	16-19/6/14	Latest Change
Sample base	1,015	1,020	1,005	1,005	1,052	1,018	--
Overall response rate	68.1%	66.2%	64.3%	66.8%	68.4%	68.4%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	47.6	47.8	48.5	47.9	45.8^[8]	45.6+/-1.7	-0.2
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	28%	28%	27%	27%	24%	26+/-3%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	56%	55%	55%	52%	60%^[8]	57+/-3%	-3%
Net approval rate	-28%	-26%	-27%	-25%	-35%^[8]	-31+/-5%	+4%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[9]	--	29%	--	29%	--	26+/-3%	-3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[9]	--	44%	--	43%	--	47+/-4%	+4%
Net satisfaction rate	--	-15%	--	-14%	--	-21+/-7%	-7%
Mean value^[9]	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=616)	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=678)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=616)	-0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 630.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 45.6 marks, and 26% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 31 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 26% were satisfied, whereas 47% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 21 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	13-19/6/13	23-26/9/13	16-19/12/13	24-27/3/14	16-19/6/14	Latest Change^[10]
Sample base^[10]	568-688	566-589	545-691	555-600	637-713	--
Overall response rate	68.0%	63.8%	68.6%	68.7%	68.4%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[11]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[12]	39%^[13]	44%^[13]	41%	41%	37+/-4%	-4%
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	30%^[13]	26%	32%^[13]	33%	38+/-4%	+5%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	9%^[13]	18%^[13]	9%^[13]	8%	-1+/-7%	-9%^[13]
Mean value^[12]	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=590)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=507)	3.0+/-0.1^[13] (Base=489)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=523)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=599)	-0.1
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[12]	28%^[13]	38%^[13]	31%^[13]	36%	36+/-4%	--
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	41%^[13]	36%^[13]	39%	38%	37+/-4%	-1%
Net satisfaction rate	-13%^[13]	2%^[13]	-8%^[13]	-2%	-1+/-7%	+1%
Mean value^[12]	2.7+/-0.1^[13] (Base=552)	2.9+/-0.1^[13] (Base=572)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=668)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=585)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=627)	--
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[12]	31%	37%^[13]	29%^[13]	29%	32+/-3%	+3%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	43%	35%^[13]	49%^[13]	47%	50+/-4%	+3%
Net satisfaction rate	-12%	2%^[13]	-20%^[13]	-18%	-18+/-7%	--
Mean value^[12]	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=663)	2.9+/-0.1^[13] (Base=530)	2.6+/-0.1^[13] (Base=571)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=528)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=678)	--
Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[12]	27%	34%^[13]	26%^[13]	33%^[13]	27+/-3%	-6%^[13]
Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	51%^[13]	44%^[13]	48%	43%^[13]	52+/-4%	+9%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	-24%^[13]	-10%^[13]	-23%^[13]	-10%^[13]	-25+/-7%	-15%^[13]
Mean value^[12]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=650)	2.8+/-0.1^[13] (Base=571)	2.6+/-0.1^[13] (Base=576)	2.8+/-0.1^[13] (Base=556)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=649)	-0.2^[13]
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[12]	25%	28%	25%	24%	23+/-3%	-1%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	50%	48%	52%	50%	52+/-4%	+2%
Net satisfaction rate	-25%	-20%	-27%	-27%	-29+/-6%	-2%
Mean value^[12]	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=634)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=532)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=526)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=549)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=608)	--

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government’s handling of its relation with the Central Government and maintaining economic prosperity, each with a net satisfaction rate of negative 1 percentage point. The Government’s performance in improving protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a net satisfaction rate of negative 18 percentage points. That in people’s livelihood attained a net satisfaction rate of negative 25 percentage points. Finally, the net satisfaction rate of the Government’s performance in developing democracy stands at negative 29 percentage points. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 2.9, 2.9, 2.6, 2.6 and 2.5 respectively, which are in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 24 to 27 March, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 16 to 19 June, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

13/6/14	The Legislative Council's Finance Committee meeting is forced to end due to the storming by the North East New Territories New Development Areas concern groups to Legislative Council building.
12/6/14	Rimsky Yuen responses to the Barristers' statement on the Central government's announcement of a white paper on "One Country, Two Systems".
10/6/14	The Central government announces a white paper to reaffirm the relationship between China and HKSAR.
4/6/14	HKASPDMC announces that around 180,000 people participate in the June Fourth candlelight vigil.
27/5/14	The Chief Executive CY Leung mentions to review the Individual Visit Scheme at a Commission on Strategic Development meeting.
22/5/14	Legislative councilors protest at the question-and-answer session with Chief Executive, the meeting is adjourned.
7/5/14	Occupy Central with Love and Peace held the third deliberation day yesterday.
5/5/14	Anthony Cheung Bing-leung and senior members of the MTR management apologize for the delayed High Speed Rail project.
23/4/14	Hong Kong and the Philippines resolve Manila hostage row.
10/4/14	Premier Li Keqiang announces the plan of direct share trading between Hong Kong and Shanghai.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 45.6 marks, fluctuating above the 45 mark alert level. His approval rate is 26%, disapproval rate 57%, giving a net popularity of negative 31 percentage points. The figures did not change much as compared to two weeks ago. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its popularity has slightly worsened. Satisfaction rate goes down by 3 percentages points, while dissatisfaction rate goes up by 4 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 21 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all five items have registered negative values, which is the second time since September 2012. They are relations with the Central Government at negative 1 percentage point, maintaining economic prosperity at negative 1 percentage point, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 18 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 25 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 29 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, only the net satisfaction rate of relations with the Central Government and improving people’s livelihood have dropped significantly, while that of the other three remained stable. People’s dissatisfaction at how the SAR Government handles its relations with the Central Government now stands at 38%, which is the worst figures since 1997. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

June 26, 2014 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s appraisal of society’s conditions
June 30, 2014 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR anniversary survey