HKU POP releases the latest trust and confidence indicators Back

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 49 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP is planning to put up a “POP Education Page” to centralize all raw data and educational material as a one-stop service.

POP interviewed 1,026 Hong Kong people between 6 and 12 June 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that all government trust and confidence indicators have remained stable, except that people’s net trust in Central Government has dropped significantly to negative 8 percentage points. People’s latest net trust in the HKSAR and Taiwan Governments now stand at positive 5 and negative 13 percentage points respectively, almost the same as those 3 months ago. As for the confidence indicators, people’s confidence in the future of China is still the highest among the three, with a net confidence of positive 34 percentage points, while people’s net confidence in the future of Hong Kong and “one country, two systems” now stand at positive 7 percentage points and positive 1 percentage point. Further analysis shows the younger the respondent, the more one distrusts the HKSAR and Central Governments. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,026 successful interviews, not 1,026 x 67.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8%”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people’s trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong’s future, China’s future and “one country, two systems”. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:

[7] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 603 to 658, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated. 
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 41% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 34% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 19% trusted the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are positive 5, negative 8 and negative 13 percentage points, while the mean scores of these trust indicators are 3.0, 2.8 and 2.7 respectively, meaning close to “half-half” in general. On the other hand, 49% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong’s future, 63% had confidence in China’s future, while 47% of the respondents were confident in “one country, two systems”. The three net confidence values are positive 7, positive 34 and positive 1 percentage points.

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ trust in HKSAR Government and Beijing Central Government by age:

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from March 17 to 20, 2014 while this survey was conducted from June 6 to 12, 2014. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey conducted in the first half of June shows that all government trust and confidence indicators have remained stable, except that people’s net trust in Central Government has dropped significantly to negative 8 percentage points. People’s latest net trust in the HKSAR and Taiwan Governments now stand at positive 5 and negative 13 percentage points respectively, almost the same as those 3 months ago. As for the confidence indicators, people’s confidence in the future of China is still the highest among the three, with a net confidence of positive 34 percentage points, while people’s net confidence in the future of Hong Kong and ‘one country, two systems’ now stand at positive 7 percentage points and positive 1 percentage point. Further analysis shows the younger the respondent, the more one distrusts the HKSAR and Central Governments. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

• June 24, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government

• June 26, 2014 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s appraisal of society’s conditions