HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 48 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 49th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP is planning to put up a “POP Education Page” to centralize all raw data and educational material as a one-stop service.

POP interviewed 1,052 Hong Kong people between June 3 and 6, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has dropped as compared to two weeks ago, his latest support rating drops significantly by 2.1 marks to 45.8 marks, again dropping near the 45 alert level, first time in 2014 and second time since he took office. CE’s net approval rate now stands at negative 35 percentage points, and recent events which might have affected his popularity include the question-and-answer session at Legco, and the public sentiment of June 4. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 59.1 marks, her approval rate 52%, disapproval rate 12%, giving a net popularity of positive 40 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 55.5 marks, approval rate 43%, disapproval rate 16%, and net popularity positive 27 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 51.9 marks, approval rate 31%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 15 percentage points. Carrie Lam and John Tsang both registered significant decreases in their net approval rates, while Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 7 among the 12 Directors have gone down, while 5 have gone up. Among them, only that of Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok and Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung registered significant changes in net approval rate, up by 17 and 11 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 15, 31 and 33 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 77 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Lai Tung-kwok and Carrie Lam now fall under the category of “successful”. The performance of Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, Tsang Tak-sing, Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Rimsky Yuen, Raymond Tam and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 26/2/2014 was the instant survey after the Budget Speech and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 45.8 marks, and 24% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 35 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 59.1, 55.5 and 51.9 marks, and 52%, 43% and 31% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 40, 27 and 15 percentage points respectively.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 5 to 8 May, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 6 June, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

Our latest survey conducted in early June shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has dropped as compared to two weeks ago, his latest support rating drops significantly by 2.1 marks to 45.8 marks, again dropping near the 45 alert level, first time in 2014 and second time since he took office. CE’s net approval rate now stands at negative 35 percentage points, and recent events which might have affected his popularity include the question-and-answer session at Legco, and the public sentiment of June 4.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 59.1 marks, her approval rate 52%, disapproval rate 12%, giving a net popularity of positive 40 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 55.5 marks, approval rate 43%, disapproval rate 16%, and net popularity positive 27 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 51.9 marks, approval rate 31%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 15 percentage points. Carrie Lam and John Tsang both registered significant decreases in their net approval rates, while Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 7 among the 12 Directors have gone down, while 5 have gone up. Among them, only that of Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok and Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung registered significant changes in net approval rate, up by 17 and 11 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 15, 31 and 33 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 77 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Lai Tung-kwok and Carrie Lam now fall under the category of “successful”. The performance of Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, Tsang Tak-sing, Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Rimsky Yuen, Raymond Tam and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

• June 17, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity