HKU POP releases findings on people’s feeling towards different governments and peoplesBack

Press Release on June 5, 2014

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 48 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP is planning to put up a “POP Education Page” to centralize all raw data and educational material as a one-stop service.

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on Hong Kong citizens’ feeling towards different governments and peoples in May, by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that in terms of net affinity Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hong Kong people is 55 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 43 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 24 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 7 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. It should be noted that the net value of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards Mainland Chinese people has turned from negative to positive over the past 6 months, back to the level registered in late 2012, whereas Hong Kong people’s net affinity towards the Macau government has dropped significantly from positive 43 percentage points 6 months ago to positive 22 percentage points this time. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Russia, the United States, Thailand and Japan whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Moreover, compared to 6 months ago, Hong Kong people’s positive feelings towards the people of Taiwan, France and Italy, in terms of net values, are all at their new highs since 2007. As for other reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level while the sampling error of net values need another calculation. The response rate of the second stage opinion survey is 66%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 66.8% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,018 successful interviews, not 1,018 x 66.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the survey findings on Hong Kong people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples. These surveys on governments are conducted at least once a year since 1997, while the surveys on peoples only began in 2007, this being the fourteenth time. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages ^[6]
17-22/5/2014 (First stage naming survey)	1,005	66.8%	+/-3%
27-30/5/2014 (Second stage opinion survey)	1,018	66.1%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. For this survey, the sub-sample size of all questions has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have been reported in the statistical tables.
[7] The figures shown in the “latest change” column of this press release have been tested after “rim weighting” data collected in this and last surveys. The structural effect of using the new weighting method is small, around -5% to +2% for percentage figures, while statistical significance tests are not affected.

The research design of our survey on “people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. For many years, POP have selected 15 regions and countries that are best known to Hong Kong people, and conducted surveys to measure people’s feeling towards the governments of these places. Our primary objective was to map Hong Kong people’s cosmopolitan view over time. In 2007, we improved our research design. Our mid-2007 survey was divided into two stages, namely, a naming survey and an opinion survey. In the 2007 year-end survey, we further added the people module to the survey. In specific terms, in our naming survey, other than Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau, respondents can name, unaided, up to ten regions or countries which they know best. The four cross-strait regions together with 12 other regions and countries most frequently mentioned in the naming stage were then shortlisted into the second stage, with their governments and peoples rated by respondents as “very positive”, “quite positive”, “half-half”, “quite negative” or “very negative”. In our first stage survey conducted on May 17 to 22, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia and France were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Our second stage survey was conducted on May 27 to 30. The following table summarizes the findings of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards the governments and peoples of the four cross-strait regions.

Date of survey		16-20/11/12	25-27/5/13	22-28/11/13	27-30/5/14
Sample base		1,024	1,031	1,030	1,018
Overall response rate		65.9%	67.3%	66.3%	66.1%
Feeling towards different governments / peoples ^[9]		Finding	Finding	Finding	Base^[10]	Finding and error ^[8]	Latest change^[11]	Net difference with gov’ts / peoples
Hong Kong	People Positive	44%^[12]	46%	56%^[12]	561	51+/-4%	-5%	+55%
	People Negative	8%	9%	11%	561	9+/-2%	-2%
	Net value	36%^[12]	37%	45%^[12]	--	43+/-5%	-2%
	Government Positive	27%	19%^[12]	27%^[12]	561	25+/-4%	-2%	-55%
	Government Negative	23%^[12]	35%^[12]	40%^[12]	561	37+/-4%	-3%
	Net value	4%^[12]	-16%^[12]	-13%	--	-12+/-7%	+1%
Mainland	People Positive	27%	21%^[12]	27%^[12]	534	28+/-4%	+1%	+7%
	People Negative	26%	36%^[12]	32%	534	24+/-4%	-8%^[12]
	Net value	1%	-15%^[12]	-5%^[12]	--	4+/-6%	+9%^[12]
	Government Positive	29%	20%^[12]	28%^[12]	534	30+/-4%	+2%	-7%
	Government Negative	25%^[12]	37%^[12]	37%	534	33+/-4%	-4%
	Net value	4%^[12]	-17%^[12]	-9%^[12]	--	-3+/-7%	+6%
Taiwan	People Positive	51%^[12]	57%^[12]	60%	562	63+/-4%	+3%^[12]	+43%
	People Negative	2%^[12]	3%^[12]	4%	562	3+/-1%	-1%
	Net value	49%	54%	56%	--	60+/-5%	+4%^[12]
	Government Positive	31%^[12]	35%	37%	562	32+/-4%	-5%	-43%
	Government Negative	8%^[12]	8%	15%^[12]	562	15+/-3%	--
	Net value	23%	27%	22%	--	17+/-6%	-5%
Macau	People Positive	48%	48%	57%^[12]	546	49+/-4%	-8%^[12]	+24%
	People Negative	1%	1%	3%^[12]	546	3+/-1%	--
	Net value	47%	47%	54%^[12]	--	46+/-5%	-8%^[12]
	Government Positive	51%	45%^[12]	52%^[12]	546	39+/-4%	-13%^[12]	-24%
	Government Negative	7%^[12]	7%	9%	546	17+/-3%	+8%^[12]
	Net value	44%	38%^[12]	43%	--	22+/-6%	-21%^[12]

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[10] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[11] Comparison made with survey findings of 22-28/11/13.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Herewith the findings of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards the governments and peoples of 12 regions and countries other than the four cross-strait regions. They are ranked according to the net values of Hong Kong people's feelings towards their people, in descending order:

Date of survey			16-20/11/12	25-27/5/13	22-28/11/13	27-30/5/14
Sample base			1,024	1,031	1,030	1,018
Overall response rate			65.9%	67.3%	66.3%	66.1%
Feeling towards different governments / peoples ^[14]			Finding	Finding	Finding	Base^[15]	Finding and error^[13]	Latest change^[16]	Net difference with gov’ts / peoples
Singapore	People Positive		58%	62%	71%^[17]	555	65+/-4%	-6%^[17]	+7%
	People Negative		1%^[17]	3%^[17]	2%	555	2+/-1%	--
	Net value		57%	59%	70%^[17]	--	63+/-4%	-7%^[17]
	Government Positive		58%	59%	70%^[17]	555	62+/-4%	-8%^[17]	-7%
	Government Negative		6%	7%	4%^[17]	555	7+/-2%	+3%^[17]
	Net value		52%	52%	66%^[17]	--	55+/-5%	-11%^[17]
Canada	People Positive	49%		51%	60%^[17]	575	56+/-4%	-4%	+5%
	People Negative	1%		2%	1%	575	1+/-1%	--
	Net value	48%		49%	59%^[17]	--	54+/-4%	-5%
	Government Positive	49%		51%	55%	575	52+/-4%	-3%	-5%
	Government Negative	1%^[17]		2%	2%	575	3+/-1%	+1%
	Net value	48%		49%	54%^[17]	--	50+/-5%	-4%
Australia	People Positive		47%	49%	58%^[17]	566	50+/-4%	-8%^[17]	+9%
	People Negative		2%	3%	1%^[17]	566	2+/-1%	+1%
	Net value		45%	46%	57%^[17]	--	48+/-5%	-9%^[17]
	Government Positive		41%	46%^[17]	48%	566	42+/-4%	-6%	-9%
	Government Negative		2%^[17]	3%	3%	566	4+/-2%	+1%
	Net value		39%	43%	45%	--	38+/-5%	-7%
United Kingdom	People Positive		41%	44%	54%^[17]	557	49+/-4%	-5%	+10%
	People Negative		4%	4%	4%	557	4+/-2%	--
	Net value		37%	40%	49%^[17]	--	45+/-5%	-4%
	Government Positive		39%^[17]	41%	50%^[17]	557	45+/-4%	-5%^[17]	-10%
	Government Negative		6%^[17]	9%^[17]	10%	557	9+/-2%	-1%
	Net value		33%	32%	40%^[17]	--	35+/-5%	-5%
South Korea	People Positive		39%^[17]	45%^[17]	52%^[17]	554	50+/-4%	-2%	+17%
	People Negative		7%	7%	7%	554	8+/-2%	+1%
	Net value		32%^[17]	38%^[17]	45%^[17]	--	43+/-5%	-2%
	Government Positive		32%	40%^[17]	47%^[17]	554	38+/-4%	-9%^[17]	-17%
	Government Negative		10%^[17]	10%	7%^[17]	554	13+/-3%	+6%^[17]
	Net value		22%	30%^[17]	39%^[17]	--	25+/-6%	-14%^[17]
Japan	People Positive		42%^[17]	43%	49%^[17]	565	50+/-4%	+1%	+81%
	People Negative		13%^[17]	15%	15%	565	14+/-3%	-1%
	Net value		29%^[17]	28%	34%	--	36+/-6%	+2%
	Government Positive		11%^[17]	11%	12%	565	13+/-3%	+1%	-81%
	Government Negative		56%^[17]	59%	63%	565	57+/-4%	-6%^[17]
	Net value		-45%^[17]	-48%	-51%	--	-44+/-6%	+7%
Germany	People Positive		33%^[17]	39%^[17]	43%	549	38+/-4%	-5%	+5%
	People Negative		2%^[17]	3%	3%	549	2+/-1%	-1%
	Net value		31%	36%^[17]	41%^[17]	--	35+/-4%	-6%
	Government Positive		31%^[17]	34%	42%^[17]	549	34+/-4%	-8%^[17]	-5%
	Government Negative		3%^[17]	5%	3%^[17]	549	4+/-2%	+1%
	Net value		28%	29%	39%^[17]	--	30+/-5%	-9%^[17]
USA	People Positive		35%	33%	47%^[17]	563	41+/-4%	-6%	+54%
	People Negative		11%	12%	11%	563	7+/-2%	-4%
	Net value		24%	21%	36%^[17]	--	34+/-5%	-2%
	Government Positive		23%	21%	24%	563	18+/-3%	-6%^[17]	-54%
	Government Negative		32%^[17]	32%	36%	563	39+/-4%	+3%
	Net value		-9%^[17]	-11%	-12%	--	-21+/-6%	-9%^[17]
France	People Positive		26%^[17]	27%	33%^[17]	596	35+/-4%	+2%	+13%
	People Negative		6%^[17]	7%	7%	596	5+/-2%	-2%
	Net value		20%	20%	26%^[17]	--	31+/-5%	+5%^[17]
	Government Positive		16%	18%	24%^[17]	596	24+/-3%	--	-13%
	Government Negative		8%^[17]	9%	9%	596	6+/-2%	-3%^[17]
	Net value		8%^[17]	9%	15%^[17]	--	17+/-4%	+2%^[17]
Italy	People Positive		22%	26%^[17]	30%	546	32+/-4%	+2%	+14%
	People Negative		6%	7%	6%	546	4+/-2%	-2%
	Net value		16%	19%	24%^[17]	--	28+/-5%	+4%^[17]
	Government Positive		14%	18%^[17]	20%	546	22+/-4%	+2%	-14%
	Government Negative		13%	11%	10%	546	8+/-2%	-2%
	Net value		1%	7%^[17]	9%	--	15+/-5%	+6%^[17]
Thailand	People Positive		39%	35%	38%	578	33+/-4%	-5%	+58%
	People Negative		8%^[17]	9%	12%	578	17+/-3%	+5%^[17]
	Net value		31%	26%	26%	--	17+/-6%	-9%^[17]
	Government Positive		23%	19%^[17]	20%	578	11+/-3%	-9%^[17]	-58%
	Government Negative		19%^[17]	24%^[17]	32%^[17]	578	52+/-4%	+20%^[17]
	Net value		4%^[17]	-5%^[17]	-11%	--	-41+/-6%	-30%^[17]
Russia	People Positive	--		--	--	555	25+/-4%	--	+24%
	People Negative	--		--	--	555	9+/-2%	--
	Net value	--		--	--	--	16+/-5%	--
	Government Positive	--		--	--	555	20+/-3%	--	-24%
	Government Negative	--		--	--	555	28+/-4%	--
	Net value	--		--	--	--	-8+/-6%	--

[13] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[14] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[15] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[16] Comparison made with survey findings of 22-28/11/13.
[17] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Our latest findings showed that, as regards the results of people’s feeling towards different peoples, 51% felt positive towards Hong Kong people themselves while the net value is positive 43 percentage points. For the other cross-strait regions, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau peoples were 28%, 63% and 49% while their net values are positive 4, 60 and 46 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on peoples of other regions and countries, the net values for Singapore, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and South Korea were highest, with positive 63, 54, 48, 45 and 43 percentage points respectively, while those for Japan, Germany, the United States, France and Italy were positive 36, 35, 34, 31 and 28 percentage points correspondingly. Lastly, the net value of feeling towards the people of Thailand and Russia are positive 17 and 16 percentage points only.

Regarding the results of people’s feeling towards different governments, 25% felt positive towards the HKSAR government while the net value is negative 12 percentage points. For the other cross-strait governments, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau governments were 30%, 32% and 39% while their net values are negative 3, positive 17 and 22 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on other governments, the net values for Singapore and Canada were the highest, with positive 55 and 50 percentage points correspondingly, while those for Australia, the United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea, France and Italy were positive 38, 35, 30, 25, 17 and 15 percentage points correspondingly, those for Russia, the United States, Thailand and Japan were negative 8, 21, 41 and 44 percentage points correspondingly.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from November 22 to 28 2013 while this survey was conducted from May 27 to 30, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

18/5/14	China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs raises travel alert for Vietnam.
17/5/14	Vietnamese people plan to launch the nationwide anti-China protest.
15/5/14	The anti-China riot in Vietnam spreads to whole nation.
14/5/14	Anti-China riot erupts due to the South China Sea dispute between China and Vietnam.
9/5/14	The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences publishes the "City Competitiveness Blue Book: China City Competitiveness Report No.12".
23/4/14	Hong Kong and the Philippines resolve Manila hostage row.
25/3/14	Relatives of Malaysia Airlines missing airliner's passenger march to the Malaysian Embassy in China to protest.
23/3/14	Taipei Police launches clearance operation at the Executive Yuan.
21/3/14	Singapore sovereign fund Temasek Holdings purchases Watson share.
8/3/14	Malaysia Airlines airliner disappears on the ocean bordering Vietnam and Malaysia.
25/2/14	The central government changes the venue of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting of finance ministers to Beijing.
5/2/14	Aquino talks about the territorial dispute in the South China Sea and reiterate not apologize for the bus hostage tragedy in an interview with The New York Times.
29/1/14	The Hong Kong government suspends the 14-day visa-free arrangement for Philippine diplomatic and official passport holders.
26/12/13	Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visits the Yasukuni Shrine.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that in terms of net affinity Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hong Kong people is 55 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 43 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 24 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 7 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. It should be noted that the net value of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards Mainland Chinese people has turned from negative to positive over the past 6 months, back to the level registered in late 2012, whereas Hong Kong people’s net affinity towards the Macau government has dropped significantly from positive 43 percentage points 6 months ago to positive 22 percentage points this time.

As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Russia, the United States, Thailand and Japan whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments.

Moreover, compared to 6 months ago, Hong Kong people’s positive feelings towards the people of Taiwan, France and Italy, in terms of net values, are all at their new highs since 2007. As for other reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.

Future Release (Tentative)

June 10, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials