HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 46 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 47th CE rating survey. Together with the raw data of the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang released last week, the public can now download 228 such raw datasets from the POP Site for free. Because the raw data is already open, POP will simply follow its usual practice of releasing the following statistics in it press release: mean scores, sampling errors at 95% confidence level, latest change in value, whether such change is statistically significant, as well as other basic contact information. Readers are welcome to compile other statistics at will, preferably using all datasets together. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP intends to expand the coverage of these datasets in two weeks’ time to about 250 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, meaning that all regular surveys of CE rating since the handover will be covered. Please stay tuned.

POP interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong people between May 5 and 8, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 48.5 marks, his approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 55%, giving a net popularity of negative 27 percentage points. The figures did not change much as compared to two weeks ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 61.9 marks, her approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 9%, giving a net popularity of positive 48 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 56.4 marks, approval rate 50%, disapproval rate 16%, and net popularity positive 34 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 51.8 marks, approval rate 29%, disapproval rate 17%, giving a net popularity of positive 12 percentage points. Carrie Lam and John Tsang both registered significant increase in their net approval rates, while Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 9 among the 12 Directors have gone down, while 2 have gone up, 1 remained unchanged. Among them, only that of Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung registered significant changes in net approval rate, down by 32, 14, 9 and 9 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Anthony Cheung, Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 5, 10, 27 and 29 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 74 percentage points. That of Anthony Cheung has plunged to all-time record low since he took office in July 2012, probably due to the recent incidents of MTR rail service suspension and the delayed High Speed Rail Project. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam now falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of John Tsang, Matthew Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Wong Kam-sing, Tsang Tak-sing, Anthony Cheung, Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 64%.

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 26/2/2014 was the instant survey after the Budget Speech and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 48.5 marks, and 27% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 27 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 61.9, 56.4 and 51.8 marks, and 57%, 50% and 29% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 48, 34 and 12 percentage points respectively.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 7 to 10 April, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 5 to 8 May, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

Our latest survey conducted in early May shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 48.5 marks, his approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 55%, giving a net popularity of negative 27 percentage points. The figures did not change much as compared to two weeks ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 61.9 marks, her approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 9%, giving a net popularity of positive 48 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 56.4 marks, approval rate 50%, disapproval rate 16%, and net popularity positive 34 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 51.8 marks, approval rate 29%, disapproval rate 17%, giving a net popularity of positive 12 percentage points. Carrie Lam and John Tsang both registered significant increase in their net approval rates, while Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 9 among the 12 Directors have gone down, while 2 have gone up, 1 remained unchanged. Among them, only that of Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung registered significant changes in net approval rate, down by 32, 14, 9 and 9 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Anthony Cheung, Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 5, 10, 27 and 29 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 74 percentage points. That of Anthony Cheung has plunged to all-time record low since he took office in July 2012, probably due to the recent incidents of MTR rail service suspension and the delayed High Speed Rail Project.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam now falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of John Tsang, Matthew Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Wong Kam-sing, Tsang Tak-sing, Anthony Cheung, Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

• May 20, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors