HKU POP releases the latest rankings of political figuresBack

 
Press Release on May 7, 2014

| Special Announcement| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Most Familiar Political Figures) |


Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 46 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP intends to extend the release to cover the raw data of about 250 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung in a few weeks. Please stay tuned.


Abstract

POP interviewed 1,032 Hong Kong people between April 22 and 30 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. According to this latest survey, Leung Kwok-hung becomes the most visible political figure in Hong Kong for the first time, while Anson Chan and Leung Chun-ying rank 2nd and 3rd. Compared to 6 months ago, 9 people remain on the “top 10” list, only Henry Tang who ranked 9th last time has fallen out of the list after dropping to the 13th position. He is replaced by Martin Lee who has gone up 9 positions from the 18th place to occupy the 9th place. The ups and downs within the latest list should be good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to focus on long term development, we can use the overall rankings accumulated over five years. Figures show that Donald Tsang, Leung Kwok-hung, Wong Yuk-man, Henry Tang and Regina Ip are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those down may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong. The maximum sampling error of percentages of people’s most familiar political figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of this survey is 66%.


Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey on people’s most familiar political figures, the sample size is 1,032 successful cases, not 1,032 x 65.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures. The structural effect of using the new weighting method is small, around -3% to -1% for percentage figures, while statistical significance tests are not affected.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the survey results of people’s most familiar political figures. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2013 and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of survey on people’s most familiar political figures:

 

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Sampling error of percentages [6]

22-30/4/2014

1,032

65.6%

+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.


This survey on people’s most familiar political figures has been conducted for many years, with results initially released through our publication POP Express until October 2006 when we began to release them online. Between 1994 and 2005, the survey was conducted and released in the form of “top 10 political figures” using our usual “top 10” or “top 5” series survey design, which involved both naming and rating stages. Starting from October 2005, we simplified our “top 10 political figures” survey by just recording and analyzing the “naming” results, because we have already developed over time numerous rating surveys covering CE, government officials, members of Legislative and Executive Councils, and so on. As for the rating part, we only conduct supplementary rating surveys to cover those listed in the top 10 political figures but not covered in other rating surveys. Take our latest survey as an example, our supplementary rating survey of Anson Chan, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa and Martin Lee will be conducted later and the results will be uploaded onto our POP Site in due course. Moreover, in our presentation of findings, different from the other “top 10” rating series, we introduced rankings from 1 to 50 for “people’s most familiar political figures”, as well as average accumulative rankings calculated from the past 10 surveys spanning over about five years, in order to indicate the ups-and-downs of these political figures in the long run. Please refer to our POP Site for details. Herewith the result of our latest survey on “people’s most familiar political figures”, other rankings beyond the “Top 10” can be found in the POP Site:

 

Date of survey

20-28/11/12

23/4-1/5/13

4-7/11/13

22-30/4/14

Average ranking over the past 10 surveys [15]

Sample base

1,001[8]

1,002[8]

1,008[8]

1,032[8]

--

Overall response rate

63.6%

68.4%

66.8%

65.6%

--

Sampling error of
percentages (at 95% confidence level)[7]

+/-3%

+/-3%

+/-3%

+/-3%

--

Latest finding / Rank

%

Rank

%

Rank

%

Rank

%

Rank

--

Leung Kwok-hung

33%[9]

3

39%

2

26%[10]

4

28+/-4%[12]

1

3.3

Anson Chan

--

--

25%

5

26%[10]

5

28+/-4%[12]

2

9.6

Leung Chun-ying

66%

1

57%

1

62%

1

25+/-4%

3

11.4

Donald Tsang

26%

5

26%

4

32%

2

23+/-4%

4

2.5

Regina Ip

24%

6

--

--

30%

3

21+/-4%

5

6.7

Tung Chee-hwa

--

--

--

--

26%[10]

6

19+/-3%[13]

6

16.1

Carrie Lam

30%

4

20%

10

20%

8

19+/-3%[13]

7

27.0

Jasper Tsang

20%

8

24%

6

18%[11]

10

18+/-3%[14]

8

8.1

Martin Lee

--

--

--

--

--

--

18+/-3%[14]

9

10.6

Wong Yuk-man

33%[9]

2

32%

3

23%

7

18+/-3%[14]

10

4.7

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] The sub-sample size in November 2012 was 518, while that in April 2013 was 545, that in November 2013 was 594, and that in April 2014 was 547.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung were 32.7% and 32.6% respectively, so Wong Yuk-man ranked the 2nd while Leung Kwok-hung was placed at 3rd rank.
[10] The percentages of respondents who could name Leung Kwok-hung, Anson Chan and Tung Chee-hwa were 26.33%, 25.60% and 25.57% respectively, so Leung Kwok-hung, Anson Chan and Tung Chee-hwa ranked the 4th, 5th and 6th.
[11] The percentages of respondents who could name Henry Tang and Jasper Tsang were 18.5% and 18.3% respectively, so Henry Tang ranked the 9th while Jasper Tsang was placed at 10th rank.
[12] The percentages of respondents who could name Leung Kwok-hung and Anson Chan were 27.9% and 27.8% respectively, so Leung Kwok-hung and Anson Chan ranked the 1st and 2nd.
[13] The percentages of respondents who could name Tung Chee-hwa and Carrie Lam were 19.1% and 18.6% respectively, so Tung Chee-hwa and Carrie Lam ranked the 6th and 7th.
[14] The percentages of respondents who could name Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee and Wong Yuk-man were 18.33%, 18.25% and 17.96% respectively, so Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee and Wong Yuk-man ranked the 8th, 9th and 10th.
[15] The earliest of the past 10 surveys was conducted during November 19 to 23, 2009. For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.

 

In our naming survey conducted in late April, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Leung Kwok-hung, Anson Chan and Leung Chun-ying were the top three. The corresponding percentages of respondents who could name these figures were 28%, 28% and 25%. Donald Tsang and Regina Ip occupied the 4th and 5th places with corresponding recognition rates of 23% and 21%. The 6th to 10th ranks fell to Tung Chee-hwa, Carrie Lam, Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee and Wong Yuk-man respectively. Their corresponding recognition rates were 19%, 19%, 18%, 18% and 18%. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. For easy reference, POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since March 1997.

 

Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:

19-22/5/2009──4-7/11/2013[16]

19-23/11/2009──22-30/4/2014[16]

Overall rank

Political figures

Av. rank for 10 surveys

 

Over all rank

Political figures

Av. rank for 10 surveys

Overall rank

Political figures

Av. rank for 10 surveys

 

Over all rank

Political figures

Av. rank for 10 surveys

1

Donald Tsang

2.2

 

11

Albert Ho

12.3

1

Donald Tsang

2.5

 

11

Lee Cheuk-yan

11.8

2

Leung Kwok-hung

3.4

 

12

Audrey Eu

13.1

2

Leung Kwok-hung

3.3

 

12

Albert Ho

11.9

3

Wong Yuk-man

4.0

 

13

John Tsang

13.2

3

Wong Yuk-man

4.7

 

13

John Tsang

13.3

4

Henry Tang

5.3

 

14

Rita Fan

14.7

4

Henry Tang

6.0

 

14

Audrey Eu

14.1

5

Regina Ip

6.7

 

15

Alan Leong

15.7

5

Regina Ip

6.7

 

15

Rita Fan

14.5

6

Jasper Tsang

8.0

 

16

Leung Chun-ying

16.1

6

Jasper Tsang

8.1

 

16

Alan Leong

15.9

7

Emily Lau

10.6

 

17

Tam Yiu-chung

16.9

7

Anson Chan

9.6

 

17

Tung Chee-hwa

16.1

8

Anson Chan

10.7

 

18

Tung Chee-hwa

18.0

8

Martin Lee

10.6

 

18

Tam Yiu-chung

16.8

9

Martin Lee

10.8

 

19

Albert Chan

18.5

9

Leung Chun-ying

11.4

 

19

Albert Chan

18.0

10

Lee Cheuk-yan

11.0

 

20

James Tien

21.9

10

Emily Lau

11.6

 

20

James Tien

22.3

[16] For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.

 

Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Donald Tsang has the highest overall rank with an average ranking of 2.5. Leung Kwok-hung has the 2nd highest overall rank with an average ranking of 3.3. The overall ranks of Wong Yuk-man and Henry Tang come 3rd and 4th respectively, with average rankings of 4.7 and 6.0. The overall ranks of Regina Ip and Jasper Tsang come 5th and 6th with average rankings of 6.7 and 8.1 respectively. The 7th to 10th overall ranks go to Anson Chan, Martin Lee, Leung Chun-ying and Emily Lau, with corresponding average rankings of 9.6, 10.6, 11.4 and 11.6.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

 

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from November 4 to 7, 2013, while this survey was conducted from April 22 to 30, 2014. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.


23/4/14

Hong Kong and the Philippines resolve Manila hostage row.

16/4/14

Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link project delays for more than nine months.

12/4/14

Media reports the Shanghai duty visit of Legislative Council delegation.

3/4/14

The government launches consultation for extending the retirement age of civil servants.

11/3/14

Communications Authority indicates that mobile TV services of the HKTV violates the Broadcasting Ordinance.

6/3/14

Zhang Dejiang mentions issue of Hong Kong universal suffrage at a group meeting with National People’s Congress deputies from Hong Kong.

2/3/14

The Press Coalition against Violence initiates march.

26/2/14

Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah releases the 2014-2015 Budget.

26/2/14

Former Ming Pao Chief Editor Kevin Lau Chun-to is attacked in Sai Wan Ho.

17/2/14

Government officials condemn the anti-mainland-tourists demonstration in Tsim Sha Tsui.



Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “The purpose of our ranking of political figures is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. According to our latest survey, Leung Kwok-hung becomes the most visible political figure in Hong Kong for the first time, while Anson Chan and Leung Chun-ying rank 2nd and 3rd. Compared to 6 months ago, 9 people remain on the ‘top 10’ list, only Henry Tang who ranked 9th last time has fallen out of the list after dropping to the 13th position. He is replaced by Martin Lee who has gone up 9 positions from the 18th place to occupy the 9th place. The ups and downs within the latest list should be good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to focus on long term development, we can use the overall rankings accumulated over five years. Figures show that Donald Tsang, Leung Kwok-hung, Wong Yuk-man, Henry Tang and Regina Ip are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of ‘people’s most familiar political figures’ is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these rankings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”



Future Release (Tentative)
  • May 13, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials

| Special Announcement| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Most Familiar Political Figures) |