HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 45 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 46th CE rating survey. Because the raw data is already open, POP will simply follow its usual practice of releasing the following statistics in its press release: mean scores, sampling errors at 95% confidence level, latest change in value, whether such change is statistically significant, as well as other basic contact information. Readers are welcome to compile other statistics at will, preferably covering all 46 datasets. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP intends to release the raw data of about 180 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang next week, and then extend it to cover former CE CH Tung. Please stay tuned.

POP interviewed 1,020 Hong Kong people between 16 and 23 April 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 47.8 marks, representing a small increase of 0.2 mark from the last survey. Because the sampling error calculated at 95% confidence level is plus/minus 1.6 marks, the change is considered not significant. CY Leung’s latest approval rate stands at 28% while his disapproval rate stands at 55%, giving a net approval rate of negative 26 percentage points, which is also considered to be stable compared to two weeks ago using the same method. The satisfaction rate of the SAR Government, on the other hand, stands at 29%, while dissatisfaction rate stands at 44%, giving a net satisfaction of negative 15 percentage points, which is again considered to be stable compared to a month ago using the same method. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census.

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 628.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 47.8 marks, and 28% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 26 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 29% were satisfied, whereas 44% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 15 percentage points. The mean score is 2.7, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive and the satisfaction rate of SARG performance by respondents’ age, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 24 to 27 March, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 16 to 23 April, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 47.8 marks, representing a small increase of 0.2 mark from the last survey. Because the sampling error calculated at 95% confidence level is plus/minus 1.6 marks, the change is considered not significant. CY Leung’s latest approval rate stands at 28% while his disapproval rate stands at 55%, giving a net approval rate of negative 26 percentage points, which is also considered to be stable compared to two weeks ago using the same method. The satisfaction rate of the SAR Government, on the other hand, stands at 29%, while dissatisfaction rate stands at 44%, giving a net satisfaction of negative 15 percentage points, which is again considered to be stable compared to a month ago using the same method. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

• May 7, 2014 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s most familiar political figures