HKU POP releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the "HKU POP Site" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 45 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. Because the raw data is already open, POP will simply follow its usual practice of releasing the following statistics in its press release: mean scores, sampling errors at 95% confidence level, latest change in value, whether such change is statistically significant, as well as other basic contact information. Readers are welcome to compile other statistics at will, preferably covering all 45 datasets. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP intends to release the raw data of about 180 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang in two weeks, and then extend it to cover former CE CH Tung. Please stay tuned.

POP conducted a double stage survey on the ratings of Legislative Councillors in late March to mid-April, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that compared to three months ago, in terms of familiarity, Michael Tien and Albert Chan who ranked third and eighth last time have dropped out of the 'top 10' list and replaced by Alan Leong and Tam Yiu-chung. In terms of absolute ratings, the scores of 6 out of the 8 who stayed on the list have gone down, 2 have gone up. Among them, those registered changes in ratings beyond sampling errors include Albert Ho and Lee Cheuk-yan. Both have dropped to their personal record lows since they first appeared on the 'top 10' list in 2003 and 1995 respectively. For Alan Leong and Tam Yiu-chung who re-enter the list this time, they have also dropped to their own record lows since they first appeared on the list in 2006 and 1994 respectively. In terms of relative rankings, Jasper Tsang and Regina Ip continue to rank first and second. James Tien goes up one position to rank third. Alan Leong re-enters the list and ranks fourth. Emily Lau goes up two positions to rank fifth. Tam Yiu-chung re-enters the list and ranks seventh. Albert Ho goes down three positions to rank eighth. The positions of other councillors who stayed on the list remain the same. It should be noted however that our list of "top 10" only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 60 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'top 10' list by design. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.6 and +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the rating survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 66.7% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,025 successful interviews, not 1,025 x 67.1% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling errors of various ratings are not more than +/-2.3. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling errors of various ratings not more than +/-2.3, at 95% confidence level". Because POP introduced "rim weighting" in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of the top ten Legislative Councillors. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to "rim weighting" based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from March 28 to April 2. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. As a result, Leung Kwok-hung, Albert Ho, Wong Yuk-man, Emily Lau and Jasper Tsang were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted from April 14 to 17, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. Starting from 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, with variable sub-sample size for each question. In latest survey, the sub-sample size of the questions varies between 562 and 666, and its effect has already been reflected in the sampling errors.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not counted.
[10] In two decimal places, the rating of Regina Ip is 56.45 and that of Michael Tien is 56.35.
[11] In two decimal places, the rating of James Tien is 53.13 and that of Alan Leong is 53.08.

The latest survey showed that Jasper Tsang was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 58.1 marks. Regina Ip, James Tien and Alan Leong ranked the 2nd to 4th with 51.8, 50.9 and 49.7 marks correspondingly. The 5th to 7th ranks went to Emily Lau, Lee Cheuk-yan and Tam Yiu-chung who attained 46.6, 45.7 and 45.3 marks respectively. Albert Ho, Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man ranked the 8th to 10th, attaining 39.0, 35.7 and 35.4 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 51.4 marks, while that for the top 10 was 45.8 marks. For this latest survey, Cyd Ho and Albert Chan obtained support ratings of 49.2 and 37.6 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

[12] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
[13] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
[14] In three decimal places, the rating of Emily Lau is 48.781 and that of Lee Cheuk-yan is 48.778.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that 8 Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Jasper Tsang at the top rank achieving an average rating of 58.7 marks, Regina Ip, James Tien, Emily Lau, Lee Cheuk-yan, Albert Ho, Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man who ranked the 2nd to 8th and attained 54.3, 52.6, 48.8, 48.8, 45.2, 35.7 and 35.3 marks correspondingly. Alan Leong has been on the list for three times and ranked the 9th, with 52.4 marks. Michael Tien and Albert Chan have been on the list twice and ranked the 10th and 11th, with 54.5 and 38.3 marks. Tam Yiu-chung has been on the list once and ranked the 12th attaining 45.3 marks.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from January 16 to 19, 2014, while this survey was conducted from April 14 to 17, 2014. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The latest survey of top 10 Legislative Councillors shows that compared to three months ago, in terms of familiarity, Michael Tien and Albert Chan who ranked third and eighth last time have dropped out of the 'top 10' list and replaced by Alan Leong and Tam Yiu-chung. In terms of absolute ratings, the scores of 6 out of the 8 who stayed on the list have gone down, 2 have gone up. Among them, those registered changes in ratings beyond sampling errors include Albert Ho and Lee Cheuk-yan. Both have dropped to their personal record lows since they first appeared on the 'top 10' list in 2003 and 1995 respectively. For Alan Leong and Tam Yiu-chung who re-enter the list this time, they have also dropped to their own record lows since they first appeared on the list in 2006 and 1994 respectively. In terms of relative rankings, Jasper Tsang and Regina Ip continue to rank first and second. James Tien goes up one position to rank third. Alan Leong re-enters the list and ranks fourth. Emily Lau goes up two positions to rank fifth. Tam Yiu-chung re-enters the list and ranks seventh. Albert Ho goes down three positions to rank eighth. The positions of other councillors who stayed on the list remain the same. It should be noted however that our list of 'top 10' only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 60 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'top 10' list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page."

• April 29, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government