HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 44 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 45th CE rating survey. Because the raw data is already open, POP will simply follow its usual practice of releasing the following statistics in it press release: mean scores, sampling errors at 95% confidence level, latest change in value, whether such change is statistically significant, as well as other basic contact information. Readers are welcome to compile other statistics at will, preferably covering all 45 datasets. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. POP intends to release the raw data of about 180 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang in a few weeks, and then extend it to cover former CE CH Tung. Please stay tuned.

POP interviewed 1,015 Hong Kong people between April 7 and 10, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 47.6 marks, his approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 56%, giving a net popularity of negative 28 percentage points. The figures did not change much as compared to two weeks ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 60.7 marks, her approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 14%, giving a net popularity of positive 40 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 54.8 marks, approval rate 45%, disapproval rate 20%, and net popularity positive 25 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 50.5 marks, approval rate 31%, disapproval rate 21%, giving a net popularity of positive 10 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 5 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 4 have gone down, 3 remained unchanged. Among them, only that of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So registered significant changes in net approval rate, up by 10 and 7 percentage points, and down by 7 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 6, 25 and 34 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 74 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Lai Tung-kwok, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Tsang Tak-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Gregory So and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 26/2/2014 was the instant survey after the Budget Speech and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] Based on the figures of February survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok are 36.4 and 35.5 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked second and third this time.
[17] Based on the figures of February survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing are 16.9 and 16.5 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked sixth and seventh this time.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 47.6 marks, and 28% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 28 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 60.7, 54.8 and 50.5 marks, and 54%, 45% and 31% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 40, 25 and 10 percentage points respectively.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 3 to 6 March, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 7 to 10 April, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

Our latest survey conducted in early April shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 47.6 marks, his approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 56%, giving a net popularity of negative 28 percentage points. The figures did not change much as compared to two weeks ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 60.7 marks, her approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 14%, giving a net popularity of positive 40 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 54.8 marks, approval rate 45%, disapproval rate 20%, and net popularity positive 25 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 50.5 marks, approval rate 31%, disapproval rate 21%, giving a net popularity of positive 10 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 5 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 4 have gone down, 3 remained unchanged. Among them, only that of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So registered significant changes in net approval rate, up by 10 and 7 percentage points, and down by 7 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 6, 25 and 34 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 74 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Lai Tung-kwok, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Tsang Tak-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Gregory So and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

• April 22, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Media Performance