HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack


Press Release on March 11, 2014

| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |


Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, other than releasing various popularity figures, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong today has uploaded the key data in raw format onto the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk), including CE rating, respondents’ gender, age group, and the weighting factor. This degree of transparency has surpassed normal academic and professional standards, and should be treasured. Citation of findings arising from such data should follow normal academic standards.


Abstract

POP interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong people between March 3 and 6, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 47.5 marks, his approval rate 25%, disapproval rate 56%, giving a net popularity of negative 31 percentage points. The figures did not change much as compared to two weeks ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 61.2 marks, her approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 9%, giving a net popularity of positive 45 percentage points, registering a significant drop of 6 percentage points as compared to one month ago. About one week after the Budget is announced, the latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 55.1 marks, approval rate 42%, disapproval rate 20%, and net popularity positive 22 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 51.8 marks, approval rate 30%, disapproval rate 15%, giving a net popularity of positive 15 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 7 among the 12 Directors have gone down, while 5 have gone up. Among them, only that of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing registered significant change in net approval rate, down by 7 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 25 and 33 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 75 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Lai Tung-kwok, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, Gregory So, Tsang Tak-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,017 successful interviews, not 1,017 x 65.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

 

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

3-6/3/2014

1,017

65.9%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

 

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

 

                   

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

1,300

+/- 2.8 %

1,350

+/- 2.7 %

1,200

+/- 2.9 %

1,250

+/- 2.8 %

1,100

+/- 3.0 %

1,150

+/- 3.0 %

1,000

+/- 3.2 %

1,050

+/- 3.1 %

900

+/- 3.3 %

950

+/- 3.2 %

800

+/- 3.5 %

850

+/- 3.4 %

700

+/- 3.8 %

750

+/- 3.7 %

600

+/- 4.1 %

650

+/- 3.9 %

500

+/- 4.5 %

550

+/- 4.3 %

400

+/- 5.0 %

450

+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

 

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:


Date of survey

2-6/1/14

15/1/14[8]

18-22/1/14

4-6/2/14

17-20/2/14

3-6/3/14

Latest change

Sample base

1,018

1,017

1,014

1,030

1,031

1,017

--

Overall response rate

66.5%

66.7%

67.6%

65.5%

67.8%

65.9%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error [9]

--

Rating of CE CY Leung

45.6

48.9[10]

47.0[10]

47.9

46.4

47.5+/-1.5

+1.1

Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung

27%

29%

29%

25%[10]

23%

25+/-3%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung

58%

53%[10]

54%

56%

56%

56+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

-31%

-24%[10]

-26%

-32%[10]

-33%

-31+/-5%

+2%

[8] This survey was the instant survey after the Policy Address and only asked rating of CE as well as his vote of confidence.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

 

Date of survey

3-5/12/13

2-6/1/14

4-6/2/14

26/2/14 [11]

3-6/3/14

Latest change [11]

Sample base[11]

565-598

523-589

551-597

1,005

582-622

--

Overall response rate

69.3%

66.5%

65.5%

62.7%

65.9%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error [12]

--

Rating of CS Carrie Lam

59.0[13]

62.0[13]

61.7

--

61.2+/-1.5

-0.5

Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam

57%

60%

59%

--

54+/-4%

-5%[13]

Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam

11%

9%

8%

--

9+/-2%

+1%

Net approval rate

46%

51%

51%

--

45+/-5%

-6%[13]

Rating of FS John Tsang

55.7[13]

57.7[13]

56.7

54.0

55.1+/-1.7

+1.1

Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang

45%

51%[13]

48%

44%

42+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang

15%

12%

16%[13]

17%

20+-3%

+3%

Net approval rate

29%

39%[13]

33%

27%

22+/-6%

-5%

Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen

49.6

51.3

51.7

--

51.8+/-1.8

+0.1

Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

27%

29%[13]

28%

--

30+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

17%

17%

15%

--

15+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

10%

12%

13%

--

15+/-5%

+2%

[11] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 26/2/2014 was the instant survey after the Budget Speech and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

 

 

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

 

Date of survey

2-6/1/14

4-6/2/14

3-6/3/14

Latest change

Sample base [14]

586-636

577-644

580-638

--

Overall response rate

66.5%

65.5%

65.9%

--

Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer

Base

%

Base

--

Base

% &
error [15]

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

636

80%

625

77%

598

79+/-3%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

636

2%

625

6%[16]

598

4+/-2%

-2%

Net approval rate

--

77%

--

71%[16]

--

75+/-4%

+4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

631

50%

644

49%

588

53+/-4%

+4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

631

14%

644

12%

588

13+/-3%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

36%

--

36%[18]

--

40+/-6%

+4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

600

48%[16]

602

49%

638

45+/-4%

-4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

600

15%

602

14%

638

13+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

32%

--

36%[18]

--

32+/-5%

-4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

599

42%

622

38%

580

37+/-4%

-1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

599

8%

622

10%

580

11+/-3%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

34%

--

29%

--

26+/-5%

-3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

608

40%

640

42%

602

40+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

608

16%

640

16%

602

15+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

24%

--

26%

--

25+/-6%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

624

34%[16]

630

30%

581

32+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

624

16%

630

19%

581

17+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

--

18%[16] [17]

--

10%[16]

--

15+/-6%

+5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

610

26%

603

24%

625

23+/-3%

-1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

610

8%

603

8%

625

11+/-3%

+3%

Net approval rate

--

18%[17]

--

17%[19]

--

12+/-5%

-5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

623

35%

626

36%

599

32+/-4%

-4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

623

19%

626

19%

599

22+/-3%

+3%

Net approval rate

--

16%

--

17%[19]

--

10+/-6%

-7%[16]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

612

34%[16]

633

34%

605

28+/-4%

-6%[16]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

612

22%[16]

633

25%

605

23+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

--

12%[16]

--

9%

--

6+/-6%

-3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

586

29%

606

31%

614

29+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

586

27%

606

25%

614

24+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

2%

--

6%

--

4+/-6%

-2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

588

24%[16]

618

18%[16]

618

20+/-3%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

588

46%[16]

618

49%

618

45+/-4%

-4%

Net approval rate

--

-22%[16]

--

-31%[16]

--

-25+/-6%

+6%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

591

15%

577

15%

595

17+/-3%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

591

53%

577

51%

595

50+/-4%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

-37%

--

-35%

--

-33+/-6%

+2%

[14] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[15] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[17] Based on the figures of January survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang were 18.2 and 18.0 percentage points. Thus, they were ranked sixth and seventh respectively at that time.
[18] Based on the figures of February survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok are 36.4 and 35.5 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked second and third this time.

[19] Based on the figures of February survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing are 16.9 and 16.5 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked sixth and seventh this time.

 

 

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 47.5 marks, and 25% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 31 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 61.2, 55.1 and 51.8 marks, and 54%, 42% and 30% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 45, 22 and 15 percentage points respectively.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 75 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok with net approval rates of positive 40 and 32 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan ranked 4th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 26, positive 25, positive 15, positive 12, positive 10, positive 6, positive 4, negative 25 and negative 33 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

 

 

 


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

 

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 4 to 6 February, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 6 March, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

 

5/3/14

Premier Li Keqiang delivers his first Government Work Report in the National People's Congress.

4/3/14

Zhang Dejiang and Lee Ka-kit express their opinions at a meeting with Hong Kong and Macao members of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

2/3/14

The Press Coalition against Violence initiates march.

27/2/14

The Development Bureau releases the 2014-2015 Land Sale programme.

26/2/14

Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah releases the 2014-2015 Budget.

26/2/14

Former Ming Pao Chief Editor Kevin Lau Chun-to is attacked in Sai Wan Ho.

25/2/14

The central government changes the venue of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting of finance ministers to Beijing.

22/2/14

Legislative Council passes the third reading of the Stamp Duty (Amendment) Bill.

17/2/14

Government officials condemn the anti-mainland-tourists demonstration in Tsim Sha Tsui.

13/2/14

Li Wei-ling accuses Commercial Radio at the press conference for unfair dismissal due to renewal of license.



Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

 

Our latest survey conducted in early March shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 47.5 marks, his approval rate 25%, disapproval rate 56%, giving a net popularity of negative 31 percentage points. The figures did not change much as compared to two weeks ago.

 

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 61.2 marks, her approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 9%, giving a net popularity of positive 45 percentage points, registering a significant drop of 6 percentage points as compared to one month ago. About one week after the Budget is announced, the latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 55.1 marks, approval rate 42%, disapproval rate 20%, and net popularity positive 22 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 51.8 marks, approval rate 30%, disapproval rate 15%, giving a net popularity of positive 15 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 7 among the 12 Directors have gone down, while 5 have gone up. Among them, only that of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing registered significant change in net approval rate, down by 7 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 25 and 33 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 75 percentage points.

 

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Lai Tung-kwok, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, Gregory So, Tsang Tak-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

 

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

 

Ideal: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (79%)

 

Successful: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (54%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (53%)

 

Mediocre: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (45%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (42%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (40%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (32%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (29%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (28%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (20%)

 

Inconspicuous: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (37%, 48%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (32%, 49%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (30%, 45%); Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai (23%, 35%)

 

Depressing: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Leung Chun-ying (56%); Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (50%);

 

Disastrous: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

 


Future Release (Tentative)

  • March 18, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Taiwan issues



| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |