HKU POP releases ratings of top 10 political groups Back

Press Release on March 6, 2014

Special Announcement

In response to the remarks made by some members of the community regarding the methodology of some polls conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong, Director of POP Robert Chung yesterday republished via press release and the “HKU POP SITE” two column articles written by him 11 years ago, entitled “New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” and “Accountability of Principal Officials to Public Opinion”. The articles have already discussed in details various methods and limitations of measuring the popularity of government officials. Serious discussions at intellectual and professional levels welcome.

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on the rankings of the top 10 political groups in February 2014 by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that all top 10 political groups in the last survey have managed to surpass the recognition benchmark to remain in the “top 10” list this time. In terms of support ratings, compared to four months ago, the ratings of 8 out of 10 political groups have gone down. Among them, FTU, DP and DAB register drops beyond sampling error, down by 2.3, 2.0 and 1.7 marks respectively. The rating of FTU drops to a record low since this survey series started in 1991, while that of DP drops to a record low since its establishment in 1994. No political groups score more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, HKCTU remains at the top, ADPL goes up three positions to rank second. FTU and NPP each goes down one position to rank the 3rd and 4th. LP goes up one position to rank 5th while CP down two positions to rank 6th. DP, DAB, LSD and PP remain at the 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th positions respectively. It should be noted, however, that our “Top 10 Political Groups” only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings of top ten political groups registered fall between +/-1.6 and +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 68%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey of top 10 political groups is 1,031 successful interviews, not 1,031 x 68.0% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is other 1,031 successful interviews, not 1,031 x 67.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level". Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2013 and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings^[5]
7-12/2/2014 (First stage naming survey)	1,031	68.0%	+/-3%
17-20/2/2014 (Second stage rating survey)	1,031	67.8%	+/-2.3

[5] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[6] The figures shown in the “latest change” column of this press release have been tested after “rim weighted” data collected in this and last survey. The structural effect of using the new weighting method is small, around -0.4 to +2.0 for rating figures, while statistical significance tests are not affected.

The research design of our "Top ten political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from February 7 to 12. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), Liberal Party (LP), Civic Party (CP) and League of Social Democrats (LSD) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from February 17 to 20, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:

Date of survey	22-25/2/2013	20-25/6/2013	12-18/10/2013	17-20/2/2014		Latest change
Sample base	506-631	574-698	518-584	538-647		--
Overall response rate	65.2%	66.9%	66.6%	67.8%		--
Finding / Recog rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	Recog %	--
HKCTU	49.5{2}	49.7{4}	49.3{1}	48.7+/-2.0{1}	73.9%	-0.6
ADPL	49.9{1}	52.1{1}^[9]	46.8{5}^[9]	48.5+/-1.6{2}	68.6%	+1.7
FTU	49.0{3}	48.7{5}	48.9{2}	46.6+/-2.0{3}	85.5%	-2.3^[9]
NPP	46.8{5}	46.5 ^[8]	47.0{3}^[10]	46.2+/-2.1{4}	68.0%	-0.8
LP	44.4{7}	45.9{7}	45.9{6}	45.9+/-1.8{5}	79.0%	--
CP	48.1{4}	50.4{3}^[9]	47.0{4}^[9]^[10]	45.2+/-2.1{6}	76.8%	-1.8
DP	46.6{6}	48.1{6}	45.8{7}^[9]	43.8+/-1.7{7}	87.1%	-2.0^[9]
DAB	41.9{8}^[9]	43.7{8}	45.0{8}	43.3+/-2.2{8}	89.0%	-1.7^[9]
LSD	37.2{10}	38.9{9}	37.8{9}	37.5+/-2.2{9}	82.2%	-0.3
PP	37.6{9}	36.7{10}	36.3{10}	35.2+/-2.3{10}	82.2%	-1.1
NWS	52.0 ^[8]	--	48.6 ^[8]	49.8+/-1.9^[8]	66.0%	+1.2
Labour Party	46.4 ^[8]	49.6 ^[8] ^[9]	47.2^[8]^[9]	46.4+/-2.0^[8]	62.5%	-0.8
HKASPDMC	--	51.7{2}	--	--	--	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] In two decimal places, the ratings of NPP and CP are 46.98 and 46.97 respectively. Therefore, NPP and CP ranked at 3rd and 4th places respectively.

Findings obtained in mid-February showed that, the most popular political group was Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU) which attained 48.7 marks. Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People’s Livelihood (ADPL) scored 48.5 marks and ranked 2nd. The 3rd to 8th places went to Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), New People’s Party (NPP), Liberal Party (LP), Civic Party (CP), Democratic Party (DP) and Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), attaining 46.6, 46.2, 45.9, 45.2, 43.8 and 43.3 marks respectively. The 9th and 10th places fell to League of Social Democrats (LSD) and People Power (PP) with respective scores of 37.5 and 35.2. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 47.2 marks. For this latest survey, Neighbourhood and Worker’s Service Centre (NWS) and Labour Party obtained a support rating of 49.8 and 46.4 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	22-25/2/13	20-25/6/13	12-18/10/13	17-20/2/14	No. of times on top 10	Average rating ^[11]	Overall ranking^[12]
ADPL	49.9	52.1	46.8	48.5	4	49.3^[13]	{1}
HKCTU	49.5	49.7	49.3	48.7	4	49.3^[13]	{2}
FTU	49.0	48.7	48.9	46.6	4	48.3	{3}
CP	48.1	50.4	47.0	45.2	4	47.7	{4}
DP	46.6	48.1	45.8	43.8	4	46.1	{5}
LP	44.4	45.9	45.9	45.9	4	45.5	{6}
DAB	41.9	43.7	45.0	43.3	4	43.5	{7}
LSD	37.2	38.9	37.8	37.5	4	37.8	{8}
PP	37.6	36.7	36.3	35.2	4	36.5	{9}
NPP	46.8	--	47.0	46.2	3	46.7	{10}
HKASPDMC	--	51.7	--	--	1	51.7	{11}

[11] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
[12] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[13] The average ratings of ADPL and HKCTU are 49.31 and 49.29 respectively in 2 decimal places. Therefore, ADPL and HKCTU ranked at 1st and 2nd places respectively.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, nine political groups were listed for four times, ADPL and HKCTU both achieved an average rating of 49.3 marks, but ranked first and second respectively in terms of two decimal places. Meanwhile, the 3rd to 9th ranks fell to FTU, CP, DP, LP, DAB, LSD and PP, with respective average ratings of 48.3, 47.7, 46.1, 45.5, 43.5, 37.8 and 36.5 marks. NPP was listed three times while HKASPDMC was listed once, now ranked the 10th to 11th with 46.7 and 51.7 marks.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from October 12 to 18, 2013 while this survey was conducted from February 17 to 20, 2014. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

18/2/14	Government officials and the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council condemn the anti-mainland-tourists demonstration in Tsim Sha Tsui.
13/2/14	Li Wei-ling accuses Commercial Radio at the press conference for unfair dismissal due to renewal of license.
6/2/14	Passengers of a holiday cruise are dissatisfied with compensation arrangements of the travel agency.
29/1/14	The Hong Kong government suspends the 14-day visa-free arrangement for Philippine diplomatic and official passport holders.
28/1/14	The government destroys twenty thousand live chickens at Cheung Sha Wan Temporary Wholesale Poultry Market.
15/1/14	The Chief Executive CY Leung delivers 2014 Policy Address.
1/1/14	The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around thirty thousand people participate in the New Year's Day rally and over sixty thousand people participate in the Civil Referendum.
7/12/13	Tsang Chun-wah got an egg thrown at him at the North Point regional consultation forum.
4/12/13	The government starts the consultation on political reform.
27/11/13	The Public Accounts Committee of Legislative Council condemns former ICAC commissioner Timothy Tong Hin-ming.
7/11/13	Legislative Council vetoes the use of the Privilege act to investigate the government’s decision on issuing free television licenses
4/11/13	Michael Tien Puk-sun reveals that HKTV scored the lowest marks among the three new television license applicants in terms of financial ability.
20/10/13	People demonstrate to protest against the Government's decision on rejecting HKTV's application to free television license.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey of ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ completed in mid-February shows that all top 10 political groups in the last survey have managed to surpass the recognition benchmark to remain in the ‘top 10’ list this time. In terms of support ratings, compared to four months ago, the ratings of 8 out of 10 political groups have gone down. Among them, FTU, DP and DAB register drops beyond sampling error, down by 2.3, 2.0 and 1.7 marks respectively. The rating of FTU drops to a record low since this survey series started in 1991, while that of DP drops to a record low since its establishment in 1994. No political groups score more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, HKCTU remains at the top, ADPL goes up three positions to rank second. FTU and NPP each goes down one position to rank the 3rd and 4th. LP goes up one position to rank 5th while CP down two positions to rank 6th. DP, DAB, LSD and PP remain at the 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th positions respectively. It should be noted, however, that our ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

March 11, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials