HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on February 25, 2014

Special Announcement

POP will conduct instant survey on FS’s Budget Talk

As in previous years, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will conduct an instant survey after the Financial Secretary John Tsang gives his Budget Talk tomorrow (February 26, 2014). Results will be announced on the next day (February 27), after which POP will conduct follow-up surveys which would be released in due course. If individual media would like to obtain the results of our instant survey through sponsorship on the day that the Budget is announced, please contact us today, so that we can make special arrangements.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,031 Hong Kong people between 17 and 20 February 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 46.4 marks. His approval rate stands at 23% while his disapproval rate stands at 56%, giving a net approval rate of negative 33 percentage points. The figures did not change much as compared to two weeks ago. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE. The satisfaction rate of the SAR Government, on the other hand, stands at 24%, while dissatisfaction rate stands at 45%, giving a net satisfaction of negative 21 percentage points, meaning deterioration over the month past. The SAR Government will face another test tomorrow, after the Financial Secretary John Tsang gives his Budget Talk. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,031 successful interviews, not 1,031 x 67.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2013 and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
17-20/2/2014	1,031	67.8%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	16-19/12/13	2-6/1/14	15/1/14^[7]	18-22/1/14	4-6/2/14	17-20/2/14	Latest change
Sample base	1,018	1,018	1,017	1,014	1,030	1,031	--
Overall response rate	68.6%	66.5%	66.7%	67.6%	65.5%	67.8%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error ^[8]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	45.0^[9]	45.6	48.9^[9]	47.0^[9]	47.9	46.4+/-1.6	-1.5
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	23%	27%	29%	29%	25%^[9]	23+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	60%^[9]	58%	53%^[9]	54%	56%	56+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	-37%^[9]	-31%	-24%^[9]	-26%	-32%^[9]	-33+/-5%	-1%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[10]	25%	--	--	26%	--	24+/-4%	-2%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[10]	49%	--	--	43%	--	45+/-4%	+2%
Net satisfaction rate	-24%	--	--	-16%	--	-21+/-7%	-5%
Mean value^[10]	2.6+/-0.1^[9] (Base=604)	--	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=551)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=567)	-0.1

[7] This survey was the instant survey after the Policy Address and only asked rating of CE as well as his vote of confidence.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 578.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 46.4 marks, and 23% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 33 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 24% were satisfied, whereas 45% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 21 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive by respondents’ age, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

Date of survey: 17-20/2/2014		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE[11]	Support	14+/-5% (26)	23+/-4% (90)	27+/-4% (122)	23+/-3% (238)
	Oppose	77+/-6% (145)	57+/-5% (220)	47+/-5% (210)	56+/-3% (575)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	9+/-4% (17)	20+/-4% (76)	26+/-4% (116)	21+/-3% (210)
	Total	100% (188)	100% (387)	100% (448)	100% (1,023)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 18 to 22 January, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 20 February, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

17/2/14	Government officials condemn the anti-mainlanders demonstration in Tsim Sha Tsui.
13/2/14	Li Wei-ling accuses Commercial Radio at the press conference for unfair dismissal due to renewal of license.
7/2/14	Norman Chan Tak-Lam attends the Legislative Council Panel on Financial Affairs to review the delisting of U.S. Fed and the Hong Kong property market.
6/2/14	Passengers of a holiday cruise are dissatisfied with compensation arrangements of the travel agency.
5/2/14	Aquino talks about the territorial dispute in the South China Sea and reiterate not apologize for the bus hostage tragedy in an interview with The New York Times.
1/2/14	Lau Wong-fat asks for the divination about Hong Kong's future in the Year of the Horse in Che Kung.
31/1/14	Chicken breeders and traders criticize the government's ban on the sale and the cull decision of live chickens.
29/1/14	The Hong Kong government suspends the 14-day visa-free arrangement for Philippine diplomatic and official passport holders.
28/1/14	The government destroys twenty thousand live chickens at Cheung Sha Wan Temporary Wholesale Poultry Market.
27/1/14	Mainland live chickens are tested to have H7N9 bird flu virus.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 46.4 marks. His approval rate stands at 23% while his disapproval rate stands at 56%, giving a net approval rate of negative 33 percentage points. The figures did not change much as compared to two weeks ago. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE. The satisfaction rate of the SAR Government, on the other hand, stands at 24%, while dissatisfaction rate stands at 45%, giving a net satisfaction of negative 21 percentage points, meaning deterioration over the month past. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’. The SAR Government will face another test tomorrow, after the Financial Secretary John Tsang gives his Budget Talk.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

February 27, 2014 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Budget instant survey
March 4, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Budget First follow-up survey