HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) interviewed 1,030 Hong Kong people between February 4 and 6, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 47.9 marks, while his net popularity stands at negative 31 percentage points, sort of back to the level registered before the Policy Address. In other words, the popularity effect of the Policy Address has receded. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 61.7 marks, her approval rate 59%, disapproval rate 8%, giving a net popularity of positive 51 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his latest support rating is 56.7 marks, approval rate 48%, disapproval rate 16%, and net popularity positive 33 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 51.7 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 15%, giving a net popularity of positive 13 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 among the 12 Directors have gone down, 5 have gone up and 1 remained unchanged. Among them, only those of Secretary for Education Eddie Ng, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man registered significant changes in net approval rate, down by 9, 8 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 31 and 35 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 71 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Lai Tung-kwok, Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, Tsang Tak-sing, Gregory So and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

[8] This survey was the instant survey after the Policy Address and only asked rating of CE as well as his vote of confidence.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[11] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

[14] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[15] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[17] Based on the figures of December survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan were 32.5 and 31.7 percentage points. Thus, they were ranked second and third respectively at that time.
[18] Based on the figures of January survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang were 18.2 and 18.0 percentage points. Thus, they were ranked sixth and seventh respectively at that time.
[19] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok are 36.4 and 35.5 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked second and third this time.
[20] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing are 16.9 and 16.5 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked sixth and seventh this time.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 47.9 marks, and 25% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 32 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 61.7, 56.7 and 51.7 marks, and 59%, 48% and 28% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 51, 33 and 13 percentage points respectively.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 2 to 6 January, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 6 February, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

Our latest survey conducted in early February shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 47.9 marks, while his net popularity stands at negative 31 percentage points, sort of back to the level registered before the Policy Address. In other words, the popularity effect of the Policy Address has receded.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 61.7 marks, her approval rate 59%, disapproval rate 8%, giving a net popularity of positive 51 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his latest support rating is 56.7 marks, approval rate 48%, disapproval rate 16%, and net popularity positive 33 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 51.7 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 15%, giving a net popularity of positive 13 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 among the 12 Directors have gone down, 5 have gone up and 1 remained unchanged. Among them, only those of Secretary for Education Eddie Ng, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man registered significant changes in net approval rate, down by 9, 8 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 31 and 35 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 71 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Lai Tung-kwok, Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, Tsang Tak-sing, Gregory So and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

[21] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung are 49.1% and 48.9%.

• February 18, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Social, freedom and legal indicators