HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on January 28, 2014

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) interviewed 1,014 Hong Kong people between 18 and 22 January 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that after some discussions of the Policy Address, the popularity figures of CE CY Leung have dropped again, but are still higher than those before he delivered his Policy Address. His support rating went up from 45.6 marks before the address to 48.9 in the evening of the address, then down again to 47.0 now. As for his net approval rate, it improved from negative 31 percentage points before the address, to negative 24 percentage points in the evening of the address, then down again to negative 26 percentage points now. In other words, the popularity effect of the Policy Address has receded very quickly. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago and straddling the Policy Address, satisfaction rate has not changed much, while dissatisfaction rate goes down by 6 percentage points, thereby improving net satisfaction to negative 16 percentage points, back to the level registered at the end of last September. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,014 successful interviews, not 1,014 x 67.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2013 and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
18-22/1/2014	1,014	67.6%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
[7] The figures shown in the “latest change” column of this press release have been tested after “rim weighting” data collected in this and last surveys. The structural effect of using the new weighting method is small, around -2% to +1% for percentage figures, while statistical significance tests are not affected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	14-21/11/13	3-5/12/13	16-19/12/13	2-6/1/14	15/1/14^[8]	18-22/1/14	Latest change
Sample base	1,026	1,006	1,018	1,018	1,017	1,014	--
Overall response rate	68.7%	69.3%	68.6%	66.5%	66.7%	67.6%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error ^[9]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	40.0	42.0 ^[10]	45.0^[10]	45.6	48.9^[10]	47.0+/-1.6	-1.9^[10]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	22%	20%	23%	27%	29%	29+/-3%	--
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	61%	66%^[10]	60%^[10]	58%	53%^[10]	54+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	-39%	-46%^[10]	-37%^[10]	-31%	-24%^[10]	-26+/-6%	-2%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[11]	21%^[10]	--	25%	--	--	26+/-4%	+1%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[11]	52%	--	49%	--	--	43+/-4%	-6%
Net satisfaction rate	-31%	--	-24%	--	--	-16+/-7%	+8%
Mean value^[11]	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=641)	--	2.6+/-0.1^[10] (Base=604)	--	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=551)	+0.1

[8] This survey was the instant survey after the Policy Address and only asked rating of CE as well as his vote of confidence.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 567.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 47.0 marks, and 29% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 26 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 26% were satisfied, whereas 43% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 16 percentage points. The mean score is 2.7, which is in between "quite dissatisfied" and "half-half".

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive by respondents' age, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

Date of survey: 18-22/1/2014		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE^[12]	Support	17+/-6% (32)	27+/-5% (103)	35+/-5% (154)	29+/-3% (288)
	Oppose	74+/-6% (135)	57+/-5% (216)	45+/-5% (195)	55+/-3% (547)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	9+/-4% (16)	15+/-4% (58)	20+/-4% (87)	16+/-2% (161)
	Total	100% (183)	100% (377)	100% (436)	100% (996)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 16 to 19 December, 2013 while this survey was conducted from 18 to 22 January, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

20/1/14	The female employer of abused Indonesian maid is under arrest at the airport.
17/1/14	The Commerce and Economic Development Bureau publishes the Assessment Report on Hong Kong's Capacity to Receive Tourists.
15/1/14	The Chief Executive CY Leung delivers 2014 Policy Address.
7/1/14	Sir Run Run Shaw passed away.
1/1/14	The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around thirty thousand people participate in the New Year's Day rally and over sixty thousand people participate in the Civil Referendum.
27/12/13	The police discovers fake HK$1,000 notes.
20/12/13	Hong Kong Television Network Limited purchases the subsidiary company of China Mobile Limited for developing mobile television business.
18/12/13	Xi Jin-ping mentions Hong Kong economy and constitutional reform in meeting with Leung Chun-ying.
17/12/13	The Court of Final Appeal rules that a seven-year residence requirement for applicants of Comprehensive Social Security Assistance is unconstitutional.
16/12/13	Power failure leads to suspension of railway service on the MTR Tseung Kwan O Line.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that after some discussions of the Policy Address, the popularity figures of CE CY Leung have dropped again, but are still higher than those before he delivered his Policy Address. His support rating went up from 45.6 marks before the address to 48.9 in the evening of the address, then down again to 47.0 now. As for his net approval rate, it improved from negative 31 percentage points before the address, to negative 24 percentage points in the evening of the address, then down again to negative 26 percentage points now. In other words, the popularity effect of the Policy Address has receded very quickly. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago and straddling the Policy Address, satisfaction rate has not changed much, while dissatisfaction rate goes down by 6 percentage points, thereby improving net satisfaction to negative 16 percentage points, back to the level registered at the end of last September. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures other than the Policy Address, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

February 4, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors