HKU POP releases society appraisal Back

Press Release on January 7, 2014

Year-end Review

Since the figures released by Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong at the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2013, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,019 Hong Kong people from December 20 to 30, 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that using a one-in-three choices method, livelihood issues continue for many years to be people’s most concerned issues followed by economic and then political issues. However, the percentage for political issues has reached record high since April 1996, probably due to the political reform consultation. In terms of absolute ratings of importance, the order of people’s concern across three broad areas is exactly the same, and the respective rating scores have not changed much as compared with six months ago. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 37, negative 10 and negative 62 percentage points. People are still least satisfied with the current political condition, with a net satisfaction dropping to all-time low since this survey began in 1992. In-depth analysis shows that the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current political condition. The maximum sampling error of all percentages in the survey mentioned is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 67.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.15 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest findings of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2013. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]
20-30/12/2013	1,019	67.3%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	28-29/12/11	19-25/6/12	27/12/12-3/1/13	13-19/6/13	20-30/12/13	Latest change
Sample base	509	1,048^[7]	1,007	1,040	1,019	--
Overall response rate	62.8%	69.6%	65.3%	68.0%	67.3%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[8]	--
Most concerned with livelihood problems^[9]	64%^[10]	61%	63%	60%	58+/-3%	-2%
Most concerned with economic problems	30%^[10]	26%	22%^[10]	24%	24+/-3%	--
Most concerned with political problems	4%^[10]	10%^[10]	12%	13%	16+/-2%	+3%^[10]
Rating on concern for livelihood problems^[9]	--	7.13^[10]	7.30^[10]	7.32	7.24+/-0.12	-0.08
Rating on concern for economic problems	--	7.07	7.20^[10]	7.02^[10]	6.98+/-0.12	-0.04
Rating on concern for political problems	--	5.92^[10]	5.79	5.77	5.77+/-0.15	--

Date of survey^[11]	19-29/12/11	19-25/6/12	27/12/12-3/1/13	13-19/6/13	20-30/12/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,027	1,048^[7]	1,007	1,040	1,019	--
Overall response rate	62.9%	69.6%	65.3%	68.0%	67.3%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[8]	--
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate^[9] ^[12]	19%^[10]	19%	19%	22%	19+/-2%	-3%^[10]
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[9] ^[12]	54%^[10]	59%^[10]	49%^[10]	50%	56+/-3%	+6%^[10]
Net satisfaction rate	-35%^[10]	-40%	-30%^[10]	-28%	-37+/-5%	-9%^[10]
Mean value^[12]	2.5+/-0.1^[10] (Base=1,002)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=500)	2.6+/-0.1^[10] (Base=991)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=1,025)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=1,010)	-0.2^[10]
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate^[12]	31%	24%^[10]	29%^[10]	30%	30+/-3%	--
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	42%^[10]	44%	37%^[10]	39%	40+/-3%	+1%
Net satisfaction rate	-11%^[10]	-20%^[10]	-8%^[10]	-9%	-10+/-5%	-1%
Mean value^[12]	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,015)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=498)	2.9+/-0.1^[10] (Base=987)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,016)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,004)	--
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate^[12]	24%	17%^[10]	14%^[10]	13%	7+/-2%	-6%^[10]
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	45%	55%^[10]	55%	56%	69+/-3%	+13%^[10]
Net satisfaction rate	-21%	-38%^[10]	-41%	-43%	-62+/-4%	-19%^[10]
Mean value^[12]	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=982)	2.4+/-0.1^[10] (Base=490)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=965)	2.3+/-0.1 (Base=941)	2.0+/-0.1 (Base=952)	-0.3^[10]

[7] These questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned in the June 2012 survey, sub-sample sizes range from 501 to 532.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.15 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] The wordings used before the June 2010 survey were “social problems” and “social condition”. We take them to mean the same as “livelihood problems” and “livelihood condition” in the survey context.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[11] Some questions in this part were sponsored by “now news channel” in 2011 and the last survey results have been announced in the programme “News Magazine” and in the “now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" segment on 9 Jan 2012.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

Latest survey showed that 58% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, 24% with economic problems, while 16% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems were 7.24, 6.98 and 5.77 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people’s satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions were 19%, 30% and 7% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 37, negative 10 and negative 62 percentage points. The mean scores of the livelihood, economic and political conditions were 2.4, 2.8 and 2.0 marks, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their education attainment. According to their answers, we grouped them into primary or below, secondary, and tertiary or above. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ satisfaction with the present political condition in Hong Kong by education attainment:

Date of survey：20-30/12/13		Primary or below	Secondary	Tertiary or above	Overall Sample
Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the present political condition in Hong Kong? ^[13]	Satisfied	12+/-6% (16)	7+/-2% (33)	5+/-2% (21)	7+/-2% (70)
	Half-half	24+/-7% (31)	22+/-4% (105)	12+/-3% (47)	18+/-2% (184)
	Dissatisfied	44+/-9% (57)	66+/-4% (311)	80+/-4% (322)	69+/-3% (689)
	Don't know/ hard to say	20+/-7% (26)	5+/-2% (23)	2+/-2% (10)	6+/-1% (59)
	Total	100% (130)	100% (472)	100% (400)	100% (1,002)
	Mean value	2.4+/-0.2 (104)	2.1+/-0.1 (450)	1.8+/-0.1 (390)	2.0+/-0.1 (943)

[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from June 13 to 19, 2013 while this survey was conducted from December 20 to 30, 2013. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

27/12/13	The police discovers fake HK$1,000 notes.
18/12/13	The Court of Final Appeal's ruling on the seven-year residence requirement for applicants of Comprehensive Social Security Assistance is unconstitutional arouses discussion among the Hong Kong society.
4/12/13	The government starts the consultation on political reform.
27/11/13	The Public Accounts Committee of Legislative Council condemns former ICAC commissioner Timothy Tong Hin-ming.
22/11/13	Li Fei, deputy secretary general of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, expresses his views on basic requirements of the Chief Executive election by universal suffrage.
20/10/13	People demonstrate to protest against the Government's decision on rejecting HKTV's application to free television license.
11/10/13	Leung Chun Ying clarifies that the government did not put Manila bus hostage crisis behind.
28/9/13	Government defines poverty line.
11/8/13	Leung Chun-ying attends a public forum in Tin Shui Wai.
1/8/13	Franklin Lam Fan- keung resigns from the Executive Council.
4/7/13	Government introduces modified plan on new town project in the north-east New Territories.
25/6/13	Government publishes report on its work in the past year.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “According to our latest survey, using a one-in-three choices method, livelihood issues continue for many years to be people’s most concerned issues followed by economic and then political issues. However, the percentage for political issues has reached record high since April 1996, probably due to the political reform consultation. In terms of absolute ratings of importance, the order of people’s concern across three broad areas is exactly the same, and the respective rating scores have not changed much as compared with six months ago. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 37, negative 10 and negative 62 percentage points. People are still least satisfied with the current political condition, with a net satisfaction dropping to all-time low since this survey began in 1992. In-depth analysis shows that the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current political condition. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

January 9, 2014 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Second part of Macau annual survey 2013
January 13, 2014 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s expectation of CE’s Policy Address
January 14, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials