HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on January 2, 2014

Year-end Review

Since the figures released by Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong at the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2013, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,018 Hong Kong people between 16 and 19 December 2013 before Christmas holidays by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung remains low, but has improved significantly as compared to early December. His support rating goes up by 3 marks to 45.0 marks while his net popularity increases by 9 percentage points to negative 37 percentage points. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its popularity has slightly improved. Satisfaction rate goes up by 4 percentages points, while dissatisfaction rate goes down by 3 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 24 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, only one item has registered a positive value, which is relations with the Central Government at positive 9 percentage points. The other four items that have registered negative values are maintaining economic prosperity at negative 8 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 20 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 23 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 27 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction rates of all five items have dropped. All except developing democracy have registered significant drops, while that of protection of human rights and freedom has even dropped to its new low since April 2004. The effect of the January 1st rallies can only be seen in the next survey. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,018 successful interviews, not 1,018 x 68.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2013.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
16-19/12/2013	1,018	68.6%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	3-8/10/13	18-24/10/13	4-7/11/13	14-21/11/13	3-5/12/13	16-19/12/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,009	1,018	1,008	1,026	1,006	1,018	--
Overall response rate	63.5%	69.3%	66.8%	68.7%	69.3%	68.6%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	48.1	44.0^[8]	41.2^[8]	40.0	42.0 ^[8]	45.0+/-1.7	+3.0^[8]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	31%	22%^[8]	22%	22%	20%	23+/-3%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	55%^[8]	60%^[8]	63%	61%	66%^[8]	60+/-3%	-6%^[8]
Net approval rate	-24%^[8]	-38%^[8]	-41%	-39%	-46%^[8]	-37+/-5%	+9%^[8]
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[9]	--	25%^[8]	--	21%^[8]	--	25+/-4%	+4%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[9]	--	52%^[8]	--	52%	--	49+/-4%	-3%
Net satisfaction rate	--	-27%^[8]	--	-31%	--	-24+/-7%	+7%
Mean value^[9]	--	2.5+/-0.1^[8] (Base=651)	--	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=641)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=604)	+0.2^[8]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 609.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 45.0 marks, and 23% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 37 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 25% were satisfied, whereas 49% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 24 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	18-28/12/12	21-27/3/13	13-19/6/13	23-26/9/13	16-19/12/13	Latest Change^[10]
Sample base^[10]	633-661	605-681	568-688	566-589	545-691	--
Overall response rate	65.7%	67.1%	68.0%	63.8%	68.6%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[11]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[12]	37%^[13]	44%^[13]	39%^[13]	44%^[13]	41+/-4%	-3%
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	28%^[13]	25%	30%^[13]	26%	32+/-4%	+6%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	9%^[13]	19%^[13]	9%^[13]	18%^[13]	9+/-7%	-9%^[13]
Mean value^[12]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=559)	3.2+/-0.1^[13] (Base=600)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=590)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=507)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=489)	-0.2^[13]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[12]	35%	36%	28%^[13]	38%^[13]	31+/-4%	-7%^[13]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	33%	33%	41%^[13]	36%^[13]	39+/-4%	+3%
Net satisfaction rate	2%^[13]	3%	-13%^[13]	2%^[13]	-8+/-6%	-10%^[13]
Mean value^[12]	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=610)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=603)	2.7+/-0.1^[13] (Base=552)	2.9+/-0.1^[13] (Base=572)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=668)	-0.1
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[12]	35%^[13]	28%^[13]	31%	37%^[13]	29+/-4%	-8%^[13]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	36%^[13]	43%^[13]	43%	35%^[13]	49+/-4%	+14%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	-1%^[13]	-15%^[13]	-12%	2%^[13]	-20+/-7%	-22%^[13]
Mean value^[12]	2.9+/-0.1^[13] (Base=590)	2.7+/-0.1^[13] (Base=646)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=663)	2.9+/-0.1^[13] (Base=530)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=571)	-0.3^[13]
Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[12]	32%^[13]	27%^[13]	27%	34%^[13]	26+/-4%	-8%^[13]
Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	39%^[13]	42%	51%^[13]	44%^[13]	48+/-4%	+4%
Net satisfaction rate	-7%^[13]	-15%^[13]	-24%^[13]	-10%^[13]	-23+/-7%	-13%^[13]
Mean value^[12]	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=634)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=589)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=650)	2.8+/-0.1^[13] (Base=571)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=576)	-0.2^[13]
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[12]	21%	22%	25%	28%	25+/-4%	-3%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[12]	45%^[13]	50%^[13]	50%	48%	52+/-4%	+4%
Net satisfaction rate	-24%^[13]	-28%	-25%	-20%	-27+/-7%	-7%
Mean value^[12]	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=587)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=604)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=634)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=532)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=526)	-0.1

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government’s handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 9 percentage points. The government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity and protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a net satisfaction rate of negative 8 and negative 20 percentage points respectively. The government’s performance in improving people’s livelihood attained a net satisfaction rate of negative 23 percentage points. Finally, the net satisfaction rate of the government’s performance in developing democracy stands at negative 27 percentage points. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.0, 2.8, 2.6, 2.6 and 2.5 respectively, which are close to “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 23 to 26 September, 2013 while this survey was conducted from 16 to 19 December, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

18/12/13	Xi Jin-ping mentions Hong Kong economy and constitutional reform in meeting with Leung Chun-ying.
17/12/13	The Court of Final Appeal rules that a seven-year residence requirement for applicants of Comprehensive Social Security Assistance is unconstitutional.
4/12/13	The government starts the consultation on political reform.
25/11/13	The annual co-operation meeting between Hong Kong and Shenzhen makes an agreement on increasing the admission quota of primary school in Shenzhen for mainland children born in HK.
22/11/13	Li Fei, deputy secretary general of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, expresses his views on basic requirements of the Chief Executive election by universal suffrage.
12/11/13	The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee ends.
24/10/13	The Government launches consultation on population policies.
20/10/13	People demonstrate to protest against the Government’s decision on rejecting HKTV’s application to free television license.
6/10/13	Xi Jinping instructs Leung Chun-ying to follow the Basic Law on political reform.
28/9/13	Government defines poverty line.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our survey conducted before Christmas holidays shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung remains low, but has improved significantly as compared to early December. His support rating goes up by 3 marks to 45.0 marks while his net popularity increases by 9 percentage points to negative 37 percentage points. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its popularity has slightly improved. Satisfaction rate goes up by 4 percentages points, while dissatisfaction rate goes down by 3 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 24 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, only one item has registered a positive value, which is relations with the Central Government at positive 9 percentage points. The other four items that have registered negative values are maintaining economic prosperity at negative 8 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 20 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 23 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 27 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction rates of all five items have dropped. All except developing democracy have registered significant drops, while that of protection of human rights and freedom has even dropped to its new low since April 2004. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’. The effect of the January 1st rallies can only be seen in the next survey.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

January 7, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s appraisal of society’s conditions
January 9, 2014 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Second part of Macau annual survey 2013