HKU POP releases the latest figures of the 2013 year-end and 2014 forecast surveyBack

(1) "New Year Civil Referendum"

 

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong (POP) and Centre for Social Policy Studies at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University are commissioned by the Secretariat of the "Occupy Central with Love and Peace" (OCLP) to organize the "New Year Civil Referendum", to let people express their views on the "Principles of CE Election", and to get familiar with the e-voting operation. Voting will be held tomorrow (January 1, 2014), with 3 propositions. Please see website http://popvote.hk and facebok page "Popvote for OCLP" for details.

 

(2) "New Year Rally" headcount

 

POP will conduct some headcounts of mass rallies tomorrow (January 1, 2014), and release its preliminary results via the "HKU POP SITE" in the evening, around 2 to 4 hours after the rallies. To read the figures, one can go to the POP Site, click on "Special Features", then "Research on Mass Gatherings and Rallies", and then choose the appropriate link.

 

POP interviewed 1,018 Hong Kong people between 16 and 19 December 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our annual survey shows that compared to a year ago, people's net satisfaction of Hong Kong's development in the year past has slightly imporved from last year's negative 21 percentage points to negative 14 percentage points. Close to 60% said they lived a happy life in the year past, with a net happiness of positive 43 percentage points, similar to that registered a year ago. However, those who expected next year's development to get better on personal and societal levels have gone down by 4 and 2 percentage points respectively. This shows that although people are not quite satisified with Hong Kong's development in the year past and not optimistic about the future, they still lived a happy life. Besides, if people had to choose between having a prosperous, bribery-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for bribery-free, which is a record high figure since this survey series started in 1993, possibly due to the entanglement of the former CE, principal officials and public office bearers in scandals of conflicts or transfers of interest. Looking ahead, though remains on top, the percentage of those who consider housing to be the most important problem to be tackled has gone down significantly by 6 percentage points to 35% compared to a year ago, while that of constitutional reform has increased significantly by 7 percentage points to 20%, which is a new high since 1994. As for people's New Year wishes, without explicit prompting, close to 40% each made a wish on personal matters and society-related issue. Nearly 10% wished for world peace. Further analysis shows that the citizens aged between 18 and 29 are most dissatisfied with HK's development in 2013 and most pessimistic about the future. The maximum sampling error of the survey is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values need another calculation, response rate being 69%.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of the 2013 review and 2014 forecast survey. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2013. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]
16-19/12/2013	1,018	68.6%	+/-3%

[6]  Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Herewith the figures of 2013 review and 2014 forecast, compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:

Date of survey	17-22/12/10	12-20/12/11	14-17/12/12	16-19/12/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,017	1,007	1,019	1,018	--
Overall response rate	66.4%	69.3%	67.5%	68.6%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error[7]	--
Satisfied with HK's development in the year past[8]	44%	33%[10]	25%[10]	27+/-3%	+2%
Dissatisfied with HK's development in the year past[8]	23%	35%[10]	46%[10]	41+/-3%	-5%[10]
Net satisfaction rate	21%	-2%[10]	-21%[10]	-14+/-5%	+7%[10]
Mean value[8]	3.2+/-0.1 (Base =982)	2.9+/-0.1[10] (Base=972)	2.6+/-0.1[10] (Base=985)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=976)	+0.1
Expected HK's development to be better next year	46%[10]	27%[10]	30%	28+/-3%	-2%
Expected HK's development to be worse next year	20%[10]	48%[10]	32%[10]	35+/-3%	+3%
Perceived housing to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	19%[10]	37%[10]	41%[10]	35+/-3%	-6%[10]
Perceived constitutional development ?to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	4%	5%	13%[10]	20+/-3%	+7%[10]
Perceived economy to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	27%[10]	24%	14%[10]	18+/-2%	+4%[10]
Perceived welfare to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	14%[10]	9%[10]	10%	9+/-2%	-1%
Wished HK to become a corruption-free society[9]	23%	27%[10]	31%[10]	33+/-3%	+2%
Wished HK to become a fair society	27%[10]	28%	23%[10]	23+/-3%	--
Wished HK to become a prosperous society	22%[10]	21%	18%[10]	20+/-3%	+2%
Respondents who were happy in the year past[8]	56%	61%[10]	58%	56+/-3%	-2%
Respondents who were unhappy in the year past[8]	13%	11%	12%	13+/-2%	+1%
Net happiness value	43%	50%[10]	46%	43+/-4%	-3%
Mean value[8]	3.5+/-0.1 (Base =1,011)	3.6+/-0.1 (Base =1,003)	3.5+/-0.1 (Base=1,013)	3.5+/-0.1 (Base=1,012)	--
Expected personal development to become better next year	46%[10]	40%[10]	44%[10]	40+/-3%	-4%[10]
Expected personal development to become worse next year	12%	19%[10]	13%[10]	13+/-2%	--
New Year wishes: Society-related (e.g.? economic related, people's livelihood, political related and others)	41%[10]	34%[10]	29%[10]	41+/-3%	+12%[10]
New Year wishes: Personal matters (e.g. health, career, studies, wealth, family, love, marriage, friendship and other personal issues)	37%[10]	40%	39%	38+/-3%	-1%
New Year wishes: World peace-related	9%	11%	17%[10]	9+/-2%	-8%[10]
No special wish	12%	12%	10%	8+/-2%	-2%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% and of net values not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] The expression "clean society" was used in 2006 and before. In 2007, it was changed to "corruption-free society" to highlight the original meaning of the question.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Looking back at the year past, 27% said they were satisfied with Hong Kong's development, 41% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.7, which is between "quite dissatisfied" and "half-half" in general. Meanwhile, 28% expected Hong Kong's development in general to become "better" next year, 35% said it would be worse. Besides, 35% considered "housing" to be the most important problem that the government should tackle next year, 20% thought "constitutional development" was the most pressing problem, while 18% and 9% thought "economy" and "welfare" should be tackled respectively. If one had to choose between a "prosperous", "corruption-free", "fair", "free", and "welfare" society, 33% of the respondents would wish Hong Kong to become a "corruption-free" society, while 23% and 20% opted for a "fair" and "prosperous" society respectively.

 

Findings also showed that 56% of the respondents said they were happy in the year past, 13% were not. The mean score is 3.5, which is between "quite happy" and "half-half" in general. As for the coming year, 40% believed their personal development would become better, 13% thought they would be worse off. With respect to people's New Year wishes, 41% were society-related, 38% were related to personal matters, 9% were world peace-related, 8% did not have any New Year wish.

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of the satisfaction of HK's development in year 2013 and the expectation of HK's development in year 2014 by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 16-19/12/2013		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction of HK's development in year 2013 [11]	Satisfied	17+/-5% (30)	27+/-5% (102)	32+/-4% (139)	27+/-3% (272)
	Half-half	34+/-7% (63)	30+/-5% (114)	25+/-4% (109)	29+/-3% (286)
	Dissatisfied	49+/-7% (91)	42+/-5% (160)	38+/-5% (165)	42+/-3% (415)
	Not sure	0+/-0% (0)	1+/-1% (2)	6+/-2% (25)	3+/-1% (27)
	Total	100% (184)	100% (378)	100% (438)	100% (1,001)
	Mean value	2.6+/-0.1 (184)	2.7+/-0.1 (376)	2.8+/-0.1 (413)	2.7+/-0.1 (973)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 16-19/12/2013		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Expectation of HK's development in year 2014 [12]	Better	26+/-6% (48)	27+/-5% (103)	31+/-4% (139)	29+/-3% (289)
	Half-half	26+/-6% (49)	30+/-5% (113)	20+/-4% (90)	25+/-3% (253)
	Worse	45+/-7% (84)	35+/-5% (133)	31+/-4% (137)	35+/-3% (353)
	Don't know / hard to say	3+/-2% (5)	9+/-3% (34)	18+/-4% (78)	12+/-2% (118)
	Total	100% (186)	100% (383)	100% (444)	100% (1,013)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This release is an exception, because the surveys invovled were one year apart, and any of the significant events listed in our "Opinion Daily" in between might have affected people's comments for the year past. Thus, this release has not highlighted any event from "Opinion Daily", but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records listed in our webpage.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our annual survey completed in mid-December shows that compared to a year ago, people's net satisfaction of Hong Kong's development in the year past has slightly imporved from last year's negative 21 percentage points to negative 14 percentage points. Close to 60% said they lived a happy life in the year past, with a net happiness of positive 43 percentage points, similar to that registered a year ago. However, those who expected next year's development to get better on personal and societal levels have gone down by 4 and 2 percentage points respectively. This shows that although people are not quite satisified with Hong Kong's development in the year past and not optimistic about the future, they still lived a happy life. Besides, if people had to choose between having a prosperous, bribery-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for bribery-free, which is a record high figure since this survey series started in 1993, possibly due to the entanglement of the former CE, principal officials and public office bearers in scandals of conflicts or transfers of interest. Looking ahead, though remains on top, the percentage of those who consider housing to be the most important problem to be tackled has gone down significantly by 6 percentage points to 35% compared to a year ago, while that of constitutional reform has increased significantly by 7 percentage points to 20%, which is a new high since 1994. As for people's New Year wishes, without explicit prompting, close to 40% each made a wish on personal matters and society-related issue. Nearly 10% wished for world peace. Further analysis shows that the citizens aged between 18 and 29 are most dissatisfied with HK's development in 2013 and most pessimistic about the future."

• January 2, 2014 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government

• January 7, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People's appraisal of society's conditions