HKU POP releases first part of Macau annual survey 2013Back

Press Release on December 19, 2013

Abstract

Hong Kong and Macau differ a lot, the figures of their public sentiments cannot be directly compared. However, within the survey series conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong in Macau, they themselves can be compared. Between 6 and 12 December 2013, POP interviewed 511 Macau people by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers, and found that the popularity of Macau CE Chui Sai On has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year. His support rating now stands at 61.1 marks and net popularity plunged to zero. For the Macau SAR Government, compared to one year ago, its net satisfaction rate has also dropped significantly to positive 15 percentage points. As for the specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, five out of six areas register positive figure. Their rankings are: Relation with the Central Government at positive 60 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 47 percentage points, performance of Macau law enforcement departments at positive 23 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 20 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at positive 3 percentage points, and developing democracy down to negative 3 percentage points. Looking back at 2013, Macau people generally give a positive appraisal on the city’s overall development in the year past, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 50 percentage points. Meanwhile, 66% said they lived a happy life in the year past, giving a net happiness of positive 59 percentage points. Those who expected next year’s development on personal and societal levels to get better are 51% and 55% respectively. This shows that not only people are satisfied with Macau’s development, they lived a happy life and are optimistic about the future. Besides, if people had to choose between having a prosperous, corruption-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for corruption-free. Looking ahead, housing is considered the most important problem to be tackled by the government in the coming year. The percentage is at its highest since 2005. As for people’s New Year wishes, without explicit prompting, half made a wish on personal matters, while 30% made a wish on a society-related issue. Finally, with respect to the subsidy arrangement next year by the Macau government, 61% were satisfied while 21% were not, giving a net satisfaction of positive 41 percentage points. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 70%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 511 successful interviews, not 511 x 69.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Background Information

Since 1992, POP has been conducting onsite studies in Macau in order to study the development of its public sentiment. Among them, most are related to election studies and opinion testing. Up to now, these research projects include Macau Legislative Assembly Exit Polls (1992, 1996, 2001, 2005 and 2009), Macau handover and year-end review surveys (since 1999), and other feature studies.

After the sovereignty of Hong Kong and Macau returned to China, the development of public sentiment in the two cities has become more inter-related. One can expect that Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Macau, Zhuhai and the whole Pearl River Delta will soon merge to become one entity both economically and culturally. Therefore, in the long run, establishing a common social indicator in this region is a “multiple-win situation” for all. POP’s research in Macau in the last 21 years is aimed at gradually building up a regional system on scientific public opinion polling, and to provide useful data for comparative studies in future.

Latest Figures

POP today releases via the “POP SITE” the first part of the Macau annual survey 2013, while the second part will be released on January 9, 2014. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to figures obtained from the Statistics and Census Service of Macau government regarding the gender-age distribution of the Macau population in 2012 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
6-12/12/2013	511	69.6%	+/-4%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

I. Popularity figures of Macau CE and the Government

Recent popularity figures of Macau CE Chui Sai On and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the MSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	29-30/12/09	24-26/1/11	17/11-9/12/11	23-28/12/12	6-12/12/13	Latest change
Sample base	506	508	1,022	519	511	--
Overall response rate	77.6%	72.7%	71.7%	70.6%	69.6%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE Chui Sai On	60.1	55.5	62.7	64.5^[8]	61.1+/-1.7	-3.4^[8]
Vote of confidence in CE Chui Sai On	46%	32%	44%	51%^[8]	39+/-4%	-12%^[8]
Vote of no confidence in CE Chui Sai On	29%	48%	36%	28%^[8]	39+/-4%	+11%^[8]
Net approval rate	17%	-16%	8%	23%^[8]	0+/-8%	-23%^[8]
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[9]	52%	34%	50%	49%	41+/-4%	-8%^[8]
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[9]	14%	23%	17%	14%	26+/-4%	+12%^[8]
Net satisfaction rate	38%	11%	33%	35%	15+/-7%	-20%^[8]
Mean value^[9]	3.40+/-0.1 (Base=498)	3.08+/-0.1 (Base=506)	3.3+/-0.1 (Base=1,015)	3.4+/-0.1 (Base=519)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=511)	-0.3^[8]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Changes between 2011-2012/2012-2013 have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

The latest survey showed that, CE Chui Sai On scored 61.1 marks, and 39% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is zero. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the Macau SAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 41% were satisfied, whereas 26% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at positive 15 percentage points. The mean score is 3.1, which is close to “half-half”.

Recent figures on Macau people's appraisal of the six specific policy areas of the Macau SAR Government, and towards Central Government’s policy on Macau since the Handover are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey^[10]	29-30/12/09	24-26/1/11	17/11-9/12/11	23-28/12/12	6-12/12/13	Latest Change
Sample base	506	508	1,022	519	511	--
Overall response rate	77.6%	72.7%	71.7%	70.6%	69.6%	--
Finding^[11]	Finding	Finding]	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[12]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate	67%	63%	--	62%	66+/-4%	+4%
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate	4%	8%	--	6%	6+/-2%	--
Net satisfaction rate	63%	55%	--	56%	60+/-5%	+4%
Mean value	3.9+/-0.1 (Base=447)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=457)	--	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=446)	3.8+/-0.1 (Base=449)	+0.1
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate	66%	51%	--	62%	61+/-4%	-1%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate	9%	17%	--	11%	13+/-3%	+2%
Net satisfaction rate	57%	34%	--	51%	47+/-6%	-4%
Mean value	3.6+/-0.1 (Base=500)	3.3+/-0.1 (Base=502)	--	3.6+/-0.1 (Base=510)	3.5+/-0.1 (Base=508)	-0.1
Performance of Macau law enforcement departments (including the Judicial Police): Satisfaction rate	47%	42%	--	51%	47+/-4%	-4%
Performance of Macau law enforcement departments (including the Judicial Police): Dissatisfaction rate	17%	28%	--	17%	24+/4%	+7%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	30%	14%	--	34%	23+/-7%	-11%^[13]
Mean value	3.3+/-0.1 (Base=484)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=500)	--	3.3+/-0.1 (Base=511)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=499)	-0.1
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate	45%	36%	--	39%	41+/-4%	+2%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate	19%	24%	--	18%	21+/-4%	+3%
Net satisfaction rate	26%	12%	--	21%	20+/-7%	-1%
Mean value	3.3+/-0.1 (Base=462)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=478)	--	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=473)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=482)	--
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate	38%	30%	--	44%	37+/-4%	-7%^[13]
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate	26%	38%	--	23%	34+/-4%	+11%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	12%	-8%	--	21%	3+/-7%	-18%^[13]
Mean value	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=494)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=502)	--	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=504)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=507)	-0.2^[13]
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate	38%	30%	--	33%	28+/-4%	-5%^[13]
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate	25%	32%	--	23%	31+/-4%	+8%^[13]
Net satisfaction rate	13%	-2%	--	10%	-3+/-7%	-13%^[13]
Mean value	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=449)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=480)	--	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=463)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=458)	-0.2^[13]
Central Government’s policy on Macau since the Handover: positive evaluation	76%	66%	--	72%	66+/-4%	-6%^[13]
Central Government’s policy on Macau since the Handover: negative evaluation	1%	6%	--	3%	7+/-2%	+4%^[13]
Net evaluation rate	75%	60%	--	69%	60+/-5%	-9%^[13]
Mean value	4.0+/-0.1 (Base=480)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=494)	--	3.9+/-0.1 (Base=502)	3.8+/-0.1 (Base=491)	-0.1

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] Changes between 2012-2013 have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Of the 6 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 60 percentage points. The government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity followed, attaining a net satisfaction rate of positive 47 percentage points. The performance of Macau law enforcement departments (including the Judicial Police) attained a net satisfaction rate of positive 23 percentage points, while the government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom as well as improving people's livelihood attained a net satisfaction rate of positive 20 and positive 3 percentage points respectively. Finally, the net satisfaction rate of the government's performance in developing democracy stands at negative 3 percentage points. The mean scores of these 6 specific areas are 3.8, 3.5, 3.2, 3.2, 3.0 and 2.9 respectively, meaning in between “half-half” and “quite satisfied” in general. Meanwhile, 66% of the respondents evaluated the policy of the Central Government on Macau after the handover, whereas 7% gave negative evaluations giving net value of positive 60 percentage points. The mean score is 3.8 marks, meaning close to “quite satisfied”.

II. Macau people’s 2013 review and 2014 forecast

Herewith the figures of Macau people’s 2013 year-end review and 2014 forecast, compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:

Date of survey	29-30/12/09	24-26/1/11	17/11-9/12/11	23-28/12/12	6-12/12/13	Latest change
Sample base^[14]	506	508	1,022	519	511	--
Overall response rate	77.6%	72.7%	71.7%	70.6%	69.6%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[15]	--
Satisfied with Macau’s development in the year past^[16]	73%	61%	70%	69%	62+/-4%	-7%^[17]
Dissatisfied with Macau’s development in the year past^[16]	5%	11%	7%	8%	12+/-3%	+4%^[17]
Net satisfaction rate	68%	50%	63%	61%	50+/-6%	-11%^[17]
Mean value^[16]	3.8+/-0.1 (Base=498)	3.5+/-0.1 (Base=498)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=566)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=513)	3.5+/-0.1 (Base=508)	-0.2^[17]
Expected Macau’s development to be better next year	59%	60%	--	55%	55+/-4%	--
Expected Macau’s development to be worse next year	8%	11%	--	11%	7+/-2%	-4%^[17]
Most important problem to be tackled by the government next year:
Housing	44%	43%	--	54%	59+/-4%	+5%^[17]
Economy	19%	25%	--	14%	10+/-3%	-4%^[17]
Transport	2%	6%	--	5%	9+/-2%	+4%^[17]
Medical/hygiene	4%	4%	--	4%	4+/-2%	--
Inflation	1%	6%	--	3%	2+/-1%	-1%
Political system	1%	1%	--	2%	2+/-1%	--
Wished Macau to become a:
Corruption-free society	42%	34%	28%	33%^[17]	40+/-4%	+7%^[17]
Fair society	18%	20%	22%	22%	20+/-4%	-2%
Prosperous society	20%	15%	17%	17%	17+/-3%	--
Welfare society	12%	21%	21%	20%	15+/-3%	-5%^[17]
Free society	7%	7%	9%	5%^[17]	6+/-2%	+1%
Respondents who were happy in the year past^[16]	70%	64%	65%	72%^[17]	66+/-4%	-6%^[17]
Respondents who were unhappy in the year past^[16]	7%	8%	10%	6%^[17]	8+/-2%	+2%
Net happiness value	63%	56%	55%	66%^[17]	59+/-6%	-7%^[17]
Mean value^[16]	3.8+/-0.1 (Base=503)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=507)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=578)	3.8+/-0.1 (Base=518)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=508)	-0.1
Expected personal development to become better next year	55%	54%	--	59%	51+/-4%	-8%^[17]
Expected personal development to become worse next year	8%	10%	--	6%	5+/-2%	-1%
New Year wishes: Personal matters (e.g. health, career, studies, wealth, family, love, marriage, friendship and other personal issues)	42%	49%	--	49%	51+/-4%	+2%
New Year wishes: Society-related (e.g. economic related, people’s livelihood, political related and others)	41%	37%	--	30%	29+/-4%	-1%
New Year wishes: World peace-related	7%	5%	--	12%	8+/-2%	-4%^[17]
No special wish	8%	8%	--	9%	12+/-3%	+3%

[14] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
[15] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[16] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[17] Changes between 2011-2012/2012-2013 have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Looking back at the year past, 62% said they were satisfied with Macau’s development, 12% were dissatisfied, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 50 percentage points. The mean score is 3.5, which is in between “quite satisfied” and “half-half”. Meanwhile, 55% expected Macau’s development in general to become “better” next year, 7% said it would be worse. Besides, 59% considered “housing” to be the most important problem that the government should tackle next year, while 10% thought “economy” was the most pressing problem. If one had to choose between a “prosperous”, “corruption-free”, “fair”, “free”, and “welfare” society, 40% of the respondents would wish Macau to become a “corruption-free” society, while 20% and 17% opted for a “fair” and “prosperous” society respectively.

Findings also showed that 66% of the respondents said they were happy in the year past, 8% were not, with a net value of positive 59 percentage points. The mean score is 3.7, meaning close to “quite happy” in general. As for the coming year, 51% believed their personal development would become better, 5% thought they would be worse off. With respect to people's New Year wishes, 51% were related to personal matters, 29% were society-related, 8% were world peace-related, 12% did not have any New Year wish.

III. Other topics

Date of survey		6-12/12/13
Sample base		511
Overall response rate		69.6%
Finding		Finding and error ^[18]
The Macau government has decided to subsidize $9,000 to each eligible Macau permanent resident and $5,400 to each non-permanent resident. Are you satisfied with this arrangement? ^[19]	Satisfaction rate	61+/-4%
	Dissatisfaction rate	21+/-4%
	Net satisfaction rate	41+/-7%
	Mean value	3.5+/-0.1 (Base=497)

[18] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[19] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

With respect to the fact that the Macau government has decided to subsidize $9,000 to each eligible Macau permanent resident and $5,400 to each non-permanent resident, our survey results showed that 61% of the respondents are satisfied with this arrangement while 21% are dissatisfied. The net satisfaction rate is positive 41 percentage points and the mean score is 3.5, meaning in between “quite satisfied” and “half-half”.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Hong Kong and Macau differ a lot, the figures of their public sentiments cannot be directly compared. However, within the survey series conducted by POP in Macau, they themselves can be compared. According to our annual survey completed in early December, the popularity of Macau CE Chui Sai On has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year. His support rating now stands at 61.1 marks and net popularity plunged to zero. For the Macau SAR Government, compared to one year ago, its net satisfaction rate has also dropped significantly to positive 15 percentage points. As for the specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, five out of six areas register positive figure. Their rankings are: Relation with the Central Government at positive 60 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 47 percentage points, performance of Macau law enforcement departments at positive 23 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 20 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at positive 3 percentage points, and developing democracy down to negative 3 percentage points. Looking back at 2013, Macau people generally give a positive appraisal on the city’s overall development in the year past, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 50 percentage points. Meanwhile, 66% said they lived a happy life in the year past, giving a net happiness of positive 59 percentage points. Those who expected next year’s development on personal and societal levels to get better are 51% and 55% respectively. This shows that not only people are satisfied with Macau’s development, they lived a happy life and are optimistic about the future. Besides, if people had to choose between having a prosperous, corruption-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for corruption-free. Looking ahead, housing is considered the most important problem to be tackled by the government in the coming year. The percentage is at its highest since 2005. As for people’s New Year wishes, without explicit prompting, half made a wish on personal matters, while 30% made a wish on a society-related issue. Finally, with respect to the subsidy arrangement next year by the Macau government, 61% were satisfied while 21% were not, giving a net satisfaction of positive 41 percentage points.”

Future Release (Tentative)

December 23, 2013 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people's ethnic identity