HKU POP releases the latest trust and confidence indicators Back

Since the figures released by Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong at the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2013, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

POP interviewed 1,015 Hong Kong people between 9 and 12 December 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that all government trust indicators have remained stable, but people’s net confidence in the future of Hong Kong and “one country, two systems” have both dropped to positive 7 percentage points. People’s net confidence in Hong Kong’s future has even dropped to a new low since June 2003. Our local government’s poor popularity, coupled with our central government’s proactive approach to constitutional reform, might have contributed to these changes. According to our latest survey, people’s confidence in the future of China has stayed high, with a net confidence increased to positive 45 percentage points. People’s net trust in the HKSAR, Central and Taiwan Governments now stand at positive 9, negative 1 and negative 17 percentage points respectively. Further analysis shows the younger the respondent, the more one distrusts the HKSAR and Central Governments. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,015 successful interviews, not 1,015 x 68.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people’s trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong’s future, China’s future and “one country, two systems”. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 mid-year. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:

[7] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 532 to 641, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated. 
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 44% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 37% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 19% trusted the Taiwan Government. The mean scores of these trust indicators are 3.1, 2.9 and 2.7 respectively, meaning close to “half-half” in general. On the other hand, 50% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong’s future and 68% had confidence in China’s future, while 49% of the respondents were confident in “one country, two systems”.

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ trust in HKSAR Government and Beijing Central Government by age:

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from September 15 to 17, 2013 while this survey was conducted from December 9 to 12, 2013. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey conducted in mid-December shows that all government trust indicators have remained stable, but people’s net confidence in the future of Hong Kong and ‘one country, two systems’ have both dropped to positive 7 percentage points. People’s net confidence in Hong Kong’s future has even dropped to a new low since June 2003. Our local government’s poor popularity, coupled with our central government’s proactive approach to constitutional reform, might have contributed to these changes. According to our latest survey, people’s confidence in the future of China has stayed high, with a net confidence increased to positive 45 percentage points. People’s net trust in the HKSAR, Central and Taiwan Governments now stand at positive 9, negative 1 and negative 17 percentage points respectively. Further analysis shows the younger the respondent, the more one distrusts the HKSAR and Central Governments. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

• December 19, 2013 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Macau year-end survey 2013

• December 23, 2013 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity