HKU POP: PSI continues to improveBack

Press Release on December 12, 2013

Background

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to peoples’ appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to peoples’ appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal, the grading reference of the scores are shown below. For methodological detailed please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.

POP started to pilot study the “Public Sentiment Index” in year 2010 in collaboration with NowTV. The first survey was conducted in June 2010, followed by a series of monthly tracking surveys in 2011. There were altogether 13 surveys, covered by 11 releases from March 2011 to January 2012. All results have been uploaded to the POP Site.

At the end of June 2012, before the 15th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong, POP officially released a “PSI analysis” with figures dating back to 1992, spanning over 20 years. Moreover, the frequency of the study was set at twice a month. In October 2012, echoing the start of a new Legislative Council, POP decided to set the cut-off date of all PSI analyses at the Sunday proceeding every 15th and last day of month, whereas the release date was set at the first Thursday following the cut-off date, except under special circumstances.

Cut-off date of the PSI figures released by POP today is December 8, 2013, while that of the next round of release will be December 29, 2013. The tentative release date for the next release will be January 3, 2014 (Friday).

Latest Figures

The PSI released by POP today shows that as of December 8, 2013, the latest Public Sentiment Index (PSI) is 66.2, up 2.9 from late-November. As for the Government Appraisal (GA) and Society Appraisal (SA), the scores are 75.2 and 76.1, up 3.1 and 1.1 respectively. The monthly average charts of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:

Latest figure	Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 66.2 (+2.9)	Government Appraisal (GA): 75.2 (+3.1)	Society Appraisal (SA): 76.1 (+1.1)
Monthly average (Interim figure)	Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 66.2 (+5.4)	Government Appraisal (GA): 75.2 (+3.1)	Society Appraisal (SA): 76.1 (+4.8)

As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:

Score value	Percentile	Score value	Percentile
140-200	Highest 1%	0-60	Lowest 1%
125	Highest 5%	75	Lowest 5%
120	Highest 10%	80	Lowest 10%
110	Highest 25%	90	Lowest 25%
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below

The latest PSI of 66.2 can be considered as among the worst 1% across the past 20 years, while the GA and SA scores of 75.2 and 76.1 can be considered as among the worst 5% and 6% respectively.

Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:

Release date	3/10/13	17/10/13	31/10/13	14/11/13	28/11/13	12/12/13	Latest change
Cut-off date	29/9/13	13/10/13	27/10/13	10/11/13	24/11/13	8/12/13	---
Public Sentiment Index (PSI)	82.4	74.1	62.2	58.3	63.3	66.2	+2.9
Government Appraisal (GA)	91.1	86.8	74.8	72.1	72.1	75.2	+3.1
Rating of CE	49.4	48.1	44.0	41.2	40.0	42.0	+2.0
Net approval rate of CE	-15%	-24%	-38%	-41%	-39%	-46%	-7%
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG	2.7	2.7	2.5	2.4	2.4	2.5	--
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG	3.1	3.0	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.9	+0.1
Society Appraisal (SA)	84.4	76.3	70.7	67.6	75.0	76.1	+1.1
People’s satisfaction with political condition	2.3	2.2	2.0	1.9	2.1	2.1	--
Weighting index of political condition	0.30^[1]	0.30^[1]	0.30^[1]	0.30^[1]	0.30^[1]	0.30^[1]	--
People’s satisfaction with economic condition	2.8	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.8	2.8	--
Weighting index of economic condition	0.35^[1]	0.35^[1]	0.35^[1]	0.35^[1]	0.35^[1]	0.35^[1]	--
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition	2.6	2.5	2.4	2.4	2.5	2.5	--
Weighting index of livelihood condition	0.35^[1]	0.35^[1]	0.35^[1]	0.35^[1]	0.35^[1]	0.35^[1]	--

[1] POP will adopt the latest published weighting index figures when there are no respective updates.

Recent average PSI, GA and SA figures per month are tabulated as follows:

Per month figure	10/13	11/13	12/13 (Interim figure)	Latest change
Public Sentiment Index (PSI)	68.1	60.8	66.2	+5.4
Government Appraisal (GA)	80.8	72.1	75.2	+3.1
Society Appraisal (SA)	73.5	71.3	76.1	+4.8

Commentary

Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Hong Kong’s Public Sentiment Index has increased 2.9 points since the last release, up to 66.2 in early December, but is still among the worst 1% across the past 20 years. Both the Government Appraisal (GA) and Society Appraisal (SA) scores have gone up, to 75.2 and 76.1 respectively, and can be considered as among the worst 5% and 6% across the past 20 years. All in all, after public discontent boiled in early November, public sentiment seems to have improved. However, as political reform consultation has officially kicked off, and the New Year Rally in the pipeline, what happens next remains to be seen. As for the other reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in the ‘Opinion Daily’ of our POP Site.”

Next PSI Release (Tentative)

January 3, 2014 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm

Reference Materials on Survey on PSI

Please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.

Online resource: “PSI” methodological notes (Chinese Only)
Online resource: PSI scores and their percentiles
Online chart: PSI (per month) (1992-2013)
Online chart: PSI (half-yearly average) (1992-2013)
Online table: PSI (per release) (2012 – 2013)
Online table: PSI (per month) (1992-2013)
Online table: PSI (half-yearly average) (1992-2013)