HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between December 3 and 5, 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that although the support rating of CE CY Leung has somewhat recovered, it is still significantly below the warning line of 45. Leung’s approval rate now drops to 20%, disapproval rate rises to 66%, giving a net popularity of negative 46 percentage points, which are the worst figures since he took office. The credibility crisis continues. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 59.0 marks, her approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 11%, giving a net popularity of positive 46 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his latest support rating is 55.7 marks, approval rate 45%, disapproval rate 15%, and net popularity positive 29 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 49.6 marks, approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 17%, giving a net popularity of positive 10 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 9 among the 12 Directors have gone up, 2 remained unchanged and 1 has gone down. Among them, only that of Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok registered significant change in net approval rate, up by 7 percentage points. Among all the Directors, Gregory So, Eddie Ng, and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 6, 38 and 42 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, at positive 80 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam now falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, Lai Tung-kwok, Ceajer Chan, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, Tsang Tak-sing and Gregory So can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Paul Tang, Raymond Tam and Rimsky Yuen can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Eddie Ng and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while CY Leung falls into that of “disastrous” for the first time. Because this survey has started before the government launched the political reform consultation, the popularity effect of the exercise is yet to be seen. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%.

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

 

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

 

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

 

Date of survey	3-8/10/13		4-7/11/13		3-5/12/13		Latest change
Sample base [13]	570-627		588-646		579-627		--
Overall response rate	63.5%		66.8%		69.3%		--
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	% & error [14]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man	604	77%	590	81%[15]	627	84+/-3%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man	604	3%	590	3%	627	3+/-1%	--
Net approval rate	--	74%	--	79%[15]	--	80+/-4%	+1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	597	49%	594	50%	593	48+/-4%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	597	14%	594	16%	593	15+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	35%	--	35%	--	32+/-6%[18]	-3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	627	41%	624	40%	619	42+/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	627	10%[15]	624	9%	619	10+/-2%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	31%	--	30%	--	32+/-5%[18]	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok	597	46%	646	42%	612	44+/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok	597	18%	646	20%	612	14+/-3%	-6%[15]
Net approval rate	--	29%	--	22%[15] [17]	--	29+/-6%	+7%[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung	595	42%	636	41%	580	42+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung	595	17%	636	18%	580	18+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	25%	--	22%[17]	--	24+/-6%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang	570	29%	619	28%	604	28+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang	570	8%[15]	619	11%	604	10+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	21%	--	17%	--	17+/-5%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	602	28%	643	25%	579	27+/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	602	16%	643	19%	579	17+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	--	12%[16]	--	6%[15]	--	10+/-6%	+4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	592	28%	605	33%[15]	591	31+/-4%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	592	25%	605	25%	591	23+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	--	3%	--	8%	--	8+/-6%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	624	31%	588	29%	600	30+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	624	24%	588	29%[15]	600	27+/-4%	-2%
Net approval rate	--	7%	--	0%[15]	--	2+/-6%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	600	30%[15]	596	22%[15]	598	25+/-4%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	600	17%	596	34%[15]	598	32+/-4%	-2%
Net approval rate	--	12%[16]	--	-12%[15]	--	-6+/-6%	+6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng	626	19%[15]	623	14%[15]	608	16+/-3%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng	626	47%[15]	623	57%[15]	608	54+/-4%	-3%
Net approval rate	--	-28%[15]	--	-43%[15]	--	-38+/-6%	+5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan	602	15%	622	16%	589	15+/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan	602	53%[15]	622	61%[15]	589	57+/-4%	-4%
Net approval rate	--	-38%[15]	--	-45%[15]	--	-42+/-6%	+3%

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] Based on the figures of October survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So were 12.5 and 12.4 percentage points. Thus, they were ranked seventh and eighth respectively at that time.
[17] Based on the figures of November survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung and Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok were 22.1 and 21.9 percentage points. Thus, they were ranked fourth and fifth respectively at that time.
[18] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan are 32.5 and 31.7 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked second and third respectively this time.

 

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 42.0 marks, and 20% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 46 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 59.0, 55.7 and 49.6 marks, and 57%, 45% and 27% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 46, 29 and 10 percentage points respectively.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 80 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan both with net approval rate positive 32 percentage points. Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan ranked 4th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 29, positive 24, positive 17, positive 10, positive 8, positive 2, negative 6, negative 38 and negative 42 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

 

 

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

 

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 4 to 7 November, 2013 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 5 December, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

 

5/12/13	The government starts the consultation on political reform.
3/12/13	The first confirmed case of human infected H7N9 flu virus is diagnosed in Hong Kong.
2/12/13	The mother of abducted baby girl in Kowloon City admits unlawful disposal of her dead body.
28/11/13	Li Ka-shing denies his plan of investment withdrawal in an interview with mainland media.
27/11/13	The Public Accounts Committee of Legislative Council condemns former ICAC commissioner Timothy Tong Hin-ming.
22/11/13	Li Fei, deputy secretary general of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, expresses his views on basic requirements of the Chief Executive election by universal suffrage.
8/11/13	The Communications Authority states that the government ignored their advice before they made the decision on issuing free television licenses.
7/11/13	Legislative Council vetoes the use of the Privilege act to investigate the government’s decision on issuing free television licenses.
6/11/13	Thousands of people demonstrate outside the Government Headquarters to protest against its decision on issuing free television licenses.
5/11/13	Government releases a six page statement to explain its decision on issuing free television licenses.

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

 

Our latest survey conducted in early December shows that although the support rating of CE CY Leung has somewhat recovered, it is still significantly below the warning line of 45. Leung’s approval rate now drops to 20%, disapproval rate rises to 66%, giving a net popularity of negative 46 percentage points, which are the worst figures since he took office. The credibility crisis continues.

 

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 59.0 marks, her approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 11%, giving a net popularity of positive 46 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his latest support rating is 55.7 marks, approval rate 45%, disapproval rate 15%, and net popularity positive 29 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 49.6 marks, approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 17%, giving a net popularity of positive 10 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 9 among the 12 Directors have gone up, 2 remained unchanged and 1 has gone down. Among them, only that of Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok registered significant change in net approval rate, up by 7 percentage points. Among all the Directors, Gregory So, Eddie Ng, and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 6, 38 and 42 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, at positive 80 percentage points.

 

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam now falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, Lai Tung-kwok, Ceajer Chan, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, Tsang Tak-sing and Gregory So can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Paul Tang, Raymond Tam and Rimsky Yuen can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Eddie Ng and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while CY Leung falls into that of “disastrous” for the first time. Because this survey has started before the government launched the political reform consultation, the popularity effect of the exercise is yet to be seen.

 

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

 

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (84%)

“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (57%)

“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (48%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (45%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (44%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (42%[19]); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (42%[19]); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (31%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (30%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (25%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai (28%, 38%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (27%[20], 44%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (27%[20], 44%)

“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (57%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (54%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Leung Chun-ying (66%)

[19] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung and Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung are 41.8% and 41.6%.
[20] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen and SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung are 27.0% and 26.9%.

 

• December 17, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Latest trust and confidence indicators