HKU POP: PSI at 20-year low but turning betterBack

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to peoples’ appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to peoples’ appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a variety of opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal, the grading reference of the scores are shown below. For methodological detailed please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.

POP started to pilot study the “Public Sentiment Index” in year 2010 in collaboration with NowTV. The first survey was conducted in June 2010, followed by a series of monthly tracking surveys in 2011. There were altogether 13 surveys, covered by 11 releases from March 2011 to January 2012. All results have been uploaded to the POP Site.

At the end of June 2012, before the 15th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong, POP officially released a “PSI analysis” with figures dating back to 1992, spanning over 20 years. Moreover, the frequency of the study was set at twice a month. In October 2012, echoing the start of a new Legislative Council, POP decided to set the cut-off date of all PSI analyses at the Sunday proceeding every 15th and last day of month, whereas the release date was set at the first Thursday following the cut-off date, except under special circumstances.

The PSI released by POP today shows that as of November 24, 2013, the latest Public Sentiment Index (PSI) is 63.3, up 4.9 from early-November. As for the Government Appraisal (GA), the score remains unchanged at 72.1, while that of the Society Appraisal (SA) is 75.0, up 7.3 from early-November. The monthly average charts of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:

As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:

The latest PSI of 63.3 can be considered as among the worst 1% across the past 20 years, while the GA and SA scores of 72.1 and 75.0 can be considered as among the worst 3% and 5% respectively.

Recent PSI, GA and SA figures are tabulated as follows:

Recent average PSI, GA and SA figures per month are tabulated as follows:

Winnie Wing-Yi Lee, Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Compared to early November, Hong Kong’s Public Sentiment Index (PSI) rebounds 4.9 points to 63.3 near the end of November. Its Government Appraisal (GA) score remains unchanged at 72.1, while the Society Appraisal (SA) score rises by 7.3 to reach 75.0. However, in terms of monthly figures, both PSI and SA are at their worst over the past 20 years, while GA is at its worst over the past 10 years. The average figures are 60.8, 71.3 and 72.1 respectively. During its previous record low in July 2003, PSI was 63.8, SA 80.6 and GA 67.2. All in all, public discontent is boiling in November, but improves a bit near the end of the month, and what happens next remains to be seen. When making comparisons, it should be noted that there are only monthly PSI figures before July 2012, instead of taking two separate measurements per month. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in the ‘Opinion Daily’ of our POP Site.”

• December 12, 2013 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm

Please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.

• Online resource: “PSI” methodological notes (Chinese Only)

• Online resource: PSI scores and their percentiles

• Online chart: PSI (per month) (1992-2013)

• Online chart: PSI (half-yearly average) (1992-2013)

• Online table: PSI (per release) (2012 – 2013)

• Online table: PSI (per month) (1992-2013)

• Online table: PSI (half-yearly average) (1992-2013)