HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,026 Hong Kong people between 14 and 21 November 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to drop, the latest figure stands at 40.0 marks, which is another record low since he took office as CE. Compared to two weeks ago, his net approval rate has recovered slightly by 2 percentage points to negative 39 percentage points. On the whole, although CE’s popularity drop has slowed down, he is still facing a credibility crisis. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, satisfaction rate drops significantly by 4 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate remains unchanged, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 31 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%.

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 mid-year.

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 653.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 40.0 marks, and 22% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 39 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 21% were satisfied, whereas 52% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 31 percentage points. The mean score is 2.4, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive by respondents’ age, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-by-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 18 to 24 October, 2013 while this survey was conducted from 14 to 21 November, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our survey conducted at the second half of November shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to drop, the latest figure stands at 40.0 marks, which is another record low since he took office as CE. Compared to two weeks ago, his net approval rate has recovered slightly by 2 percentage points to negative 39 percentage points. On the whole, although CE’s popularity drop has slowed down, he is still facing a credibility crisis. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, satisfaction rate drops significantly by 4 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate remains unchanged, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 31 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’. When the support rating of CE CY Leung first dropped below the warning line of 45 in mid-August, I compiled abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. Today I reprint the two abstracts again for public reference. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.”

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”

• December 3, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People's feelings towards different governments and peoples