HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on October 29, 2013

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,018 Hong Kong people between 18 and 24 October 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung plunge significantly, his support rating drops below the warning line of 45 again to stand at 44.0 marks. Compared to two weeks ago, his net popularity has dropped by 14 percentage points to negative 38 percentage points, which is a record low since he took office as CE. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, dissatisfaction rate shoots up by 10 percentage points, while satisfaction rate drops by 4 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 27 percentage points, which is a new low since June this year. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, readers can form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”, but the controversies surrounding the issue of free television licenses are bound to be relevant. Because the support rating of CE CY Leung drops again below the warning line of 45, POP Director Robert Chung reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. Robert Chung observed, “After CY Leung encountered his popularity crisis in August, he had spent quite some efforts to overcome the problem. However, all previous efforts are apparently wasted by the issuing of television licenses, which is totally incomprehensible.” The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,018 successful interviews, not 1,018 x 69.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 mid-year.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
18-24/10/2013	1,018	69.3%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	1-8/8/13	15-20/8/13	3-5/9/13	23-26/9/13	3-8/10/13	18-24/10/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,002	1,015	1,006	1,013	1,009	1,018	--
Overall response rate	65.2%	65.7%	64.5%	63.8%	63.5%	69.3%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	45.7	43.7	45.7^[9]	49.4^[9]	48.1	44.0+/-1.6	-4.1^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	26%	25%	28%	34%^[9]	31%	22+/-3%	-9%^[9]
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	57%	56%	56%	49%^[9]	55%^[9]	60+/-3%	+5%^[9]
Net approval rate	-31%	-31%	-28%	-15%^[9]	-24%^[9]	-38+/-5%	-14%^[9]
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	26%	--	29%	--	25+/-3%	-4%^[9]
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	49%	--	42%^[9]	--	52+/-4%	+10%^[9]
Net satisfaction rate	--	-23%	--	-13%^[9]	--	-27+/-6%	-14%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=652)	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=574)	--	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=651)	-0.2^[9]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 663.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 44.0 marks, and 22% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 38 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 25% were satisfied, whereas 52% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 27 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive by respondents’ age, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

Date of survey: 18-24/10/2013		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE[10]	Support	11+/-5% (21)	19+/-4% (74)	29+/-4% (131)	22+/-3% (225)
	Oppose	71+/-7% (133)	64+/-5% (240)	53+/-5% (233)	60+/-3% (606)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	17+/-6% (32)	17+/-4% (64)	18+/-4% (80)	17+/-2% (175)
	Total	100% (186)	100% (378)	100% (443)	100% (1,006)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-by-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 23 to 26 September, 2013 while this survey was conducted from 18 to 24 October, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

22/10/13	Ricky Wong Wai-kay applies judicial review on the Government's decision of rejecting HKTV application to free television license.
21/10/13	Staff of Hong Kong Television remains to stay at the podium outside the government headquarters to protest against the Government's decision.
20/10/13	120,000 people demonstrate to protest against the Government's decision on rejecting HKTV's application to free television license.
17/10/13	Leung Chun-ying announces that public consultation on political reform will begin by year-end.
15/10/13	Government issues two new free television licenses, Wong Wai-kay's application is rejected.
11/10/13	Leung Chun Ying clarifies that the Government did not put Manila bus hostage crisis behind.
10/10/13	Li Keqiang urges Aquino to settle Manila bus hostage crisis as soon as possible.
8/10/13	Aquino refuses to apologize on Manila bus hostage crisis.
6/10/13	Xi Jinping instructs Leung Chun-ying to follow the Basic Law on political reform.
28/9/13	Government defines poverty line.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our survey conducted at the second half of October shows that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung plunge significantly, his support rating drops below the warning line of 45 again to stand at 44.0 marks. Compared to two weeks ago, his net popularity has dropped by 14 percentage points to negative 38 percentage points, which is a record low since he took office as CE. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, dissatisfaction rate shoots up by 10 percentage points, while satisfaction rate drops by 4 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 27 percentage points, which is a new low since June this year. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’, but the controversies surrounding the issue of free television licenses are bound to be relevant. When the support rating of CE CY Leung first dropped below the warning line of 45 in mid-August, I compiled abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. Today I reprint the two abstracts again for public reference. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site. After CE’s popularity crisis happened in August, CY Leung has spent quite some efforts to overcome the problem. However, all previous efforts are apparently wasted by the issuing of television licenses, which is totally incomprehensible.”

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”

Future Release (Tentative)

November 5, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Media Performance