| Press Release on October 15, 2013 |
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| Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |
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Abstract
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,009 Hong Kong people between October 3 and 8, 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that compared to two weeks ago, the popularity figures of CE CY Leung have slightly receded. CE’s support rating stands at 48.1 marks, approval rate at 31%, disapproval rate goes up significantly by 6 percentage points to 55%, giving a net popularity of negative 24 percentage points, and his rating fails to climb above 50. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 62.0 marks, her approval rate 60%, disapproval rate 8%, and net popularity positive 52 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his latest support rating is 56.0 marks, approval rate 45%, disapproval rate 18%, and net popularity positive 27 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 51.5 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 12 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 of the 12 Directors have gone up, 5 have gone down and 1 remained unchanged*. Among them, only Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan registered significant changes in net approval rate, down by 11 percentage points and up by 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Paul Chan and Eddie Ng registered negative popularities, at negative 38 and 28 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, at positive 74 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam now falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Tsang Tak-sing, Wong Kam-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Gregory So, Paul Tang, Rimsky Yuen and Raymond Tam can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 63%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,009 successful interviews, not 1,009 x 63.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages of each survey is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
* Erratum: The description “…5 of the 12 Directors have gone up, 5 have gone down and 2 remained unchanged” in the original release was mistyped, and now corrected with regret.
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Latest Figures
POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2013. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
3-8/10/2013 |
1,009 |
63.5% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values) |
Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values) |
1,300 |
+/- 2.8 % |
1,350 |
+/- 2.7 % |
1,200 |
+/- 2.9 % |
1,250 |
+/- 2.8 % |
1,100 |
+/- 3.0 % |
1,150 |
+/- 3.0 % |
1,000 |
+/- 3.2 % |
1,050 |
+/- 3.1 % |
900 |
+/- 3.3 % |
950 |
+/- 3.2 % |
800 |
+/- 3.5 % |
850 |
+/- 3.4 % |
700 |
+/- 3.8 % |
750 |
+/- 3.7 % |
600 |
+/- 4.1 % |
650 |
+/- 3.9 % |
500 |
+/- 4.5 % |
550 |
+/- 4.3 % |
400 |
+/- 5.0 % |
450 |
+/- 4.7 % |
[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:
Date of survey |
22-25/7/13 |
1-8/8/13 |
15-20/8/13 |
3-5/9/13 |
23-26/9/13 |
3-8/10/13 |
Latest change |
Sample base |
1,032 |
1,002 |
1,015 |
1,006 |
1,013 |
1,009 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
68.2% |
65.2% |
65.7% |
64.5% |
63.8% |
63.5% |
-- |
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[8] |
-- |
Rating of CE CY Leung |
45.1 |
45.7 |
43.7[9] |
45.7 [9] |
49.4[9] |
48.1+/-1.6 |
-1.3 |
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung |
29% |
26% |
25% |
28% |
34%[9] |
31+/-3% |
-3% |
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung |
54% |
57% |
56% |
56% |
49%[9] |
55+/-3% |
+6%[9] |
Net approval rate |
-25% |
-31%[9] |
-31% |
-28% |
-15%[9] |
-24+/-6% |
-9%[9] |
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
Date of survey |
3-5/6/13 |
2-5/7/13 |
1-8/8/13 |
3-5/9/13 |
3-8/10/13 |
Latest change [10] |
Sample base[10] |
595-647 |
615-663 |
605-626 |
586-626 |
605-638 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
65.4% |
68.0% |
65.2% |
64.5% |
63.5% |
-- |
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [11] |
-- |
Rating of CS Carrie Lam |
60.8 |
61.9 |
63.3 |
63.2 |
62.0+/-1.6 |
-1.2 |
Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam |
58% |
57% |
60% |
62% |
60+/-4% |
-2% |
Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam |
8% |
9% |
6%[12] |
7% |
8+/-2% |
+1% |
Net approval rate |
50% |
48% |
54%[12] |
55% |
52+/-5% |
-3% |
Rating of FS John Tsang |
54.9 |
53.2[12] |
56.9[12] |
57.3 |
56.0+/-1.5 |
-1.3 |
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang |
46%[12] |
41%[12] |
51%[12] |
50% |
45+/-4% |
-5%[12] |
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang |
19% |
21% |
17%[12] |
16% |
18+/-3% |
+2% |
Net approval rate |
27% |
20%[12] |
34%[12] |
34% |
27+/-6% |
-7%[12] |
Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen |
49.0 |
52.6[12] |
53.0 |
52.4 |
51.5+/-2.0 |
-0.9 |
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
23% |
28%[12] |
34%[12] |
30% |
28+/-4% |
-2% |
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
15% |
18% |
12%[12] |
13% |
16+/-3% |
+3% |
Net approval rate |
8% |
10% |
22%[12] |
17% |
13+/-5% |
-4% |
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:
Date of survey |
1-8/8/13 |
3-5/9/13 |
3-8/10/13 |
Latest change |
Sample base [13] |
595-633 |
579-630 |
570-627 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
65.2% |
64.5% |
63.5% |
-- |
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer |
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
Base |
% & error [14] |
-- |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man |
627 |
82%[15] |
589 |
80% |
604 |
77+/-3% |
-3% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man |
627 |
2%[15] |
589 |
4% |
604 |
3+/-1% |
-1% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
80%[15] |
-- |
76% |
-- |
74+/-4% |
-2% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung |
622 |
51% |
618 |
50% |
597 |
49+/-4% |
-1% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung |
622 |
15% |
618 |
16% |
597 |
14+/-3% |
-2% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
36% |
-- |
34% |
-- |
35+/-6% |
+1% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan |
605 |
42% |
607 |
40% |
627 |
41+/-4% |
+1% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan |
605 |
7%[15] |
607 |
7% |
627 |
10+/-2% |
+3%[15] |
Net approval rate |
-- |
35%[15] |
-- |
33% |
-- |
31+/-5% |
-2% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok |
597 |
43%[15] |
617 |
44% |
597 |
46+/-4% |
+2% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok |
597 |
17% |
617 |
16% |
597 |
18+/-3% |
+2% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
26%[15] |
-- |
28% |
-- |
29+/-6% |
+1% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung |
600 |
44%[15] |
596 |
40% |
595 |
42+/-4% |
+2% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung |
600 |
14%[15] |
596 |
18%[15] |
595 |
17+/-3% |
-1% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
30%[15] |
-- |
22%[15] |
-- |
25+/-6% |
+3% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang |
603 |
29%[15] |
611 |
28% |
570 |
29+/-4% |
+1% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang |
603 |
7%[15] |
611 |
11%[15] |
570 |
8+/-2% |
-3%[15] |
Net approval rate |
-- |
22%[15] |
-- |
17% |
-- |
21+/-5% |
+4% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam |
633 |
29%[15] |
579 |
28% |
602 |
28+/-4% |
-- |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam |
633 |
15% |
579 |
16% |
602 |
16+/-3% |
-- |
Net approval rate |
-- |
14%[15] |
-- |
12% |
-- |
12[16]+/-5% |
-- |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So |
624 |
34%[15] |
630 |
35% |
600 |
30+/-4% |
-5%[15] |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So |
624 |
17%[15] |
630 |
17% |
600 |
17+/-3% |
-- |
Net approval rate |
-- |
17%[15] |
-- |
18% |
-- |
12[16]+/-6% |
-6% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing |
596 |
33%[15] |
602 |
33% |
624 |
31+/-4% |
-2% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing |
596 |
28% |
602 |
27% |
624 |
24+/-3% |
-3% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
5% |
-- |
6% |
-- |
7+/-6% |
+1% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
607 |
33%[15] |
625 |
31% |
592 |
28+/-4% |
-3% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
607 |
21%[15] |
625 |
22% |
592 |
25+/-4% |
+3% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
12%[15] |
-- |
9% |
-- |
3+/-6% |
-6% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng |
595 |
22%[15] |
593 |
25% |
626 |
19+/-3% |
-6%[15] |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng |
595 |
44% |
593 |
42% |
626 |
47+/-4% |
+5%[15] |
Net approval rate |
-- |
-22% |
-- |
-17% |
-- |
-28+/-6% |
-11%[15] |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan |
599 |
15%[15] |
600 |
14% |
602 |
15+/-3% |
+1% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan |
599 |
60%[15] |
600 |
60% |
602 |
53+/-4% |
-7%[15] |
Net approval rate |
-- |
-45%[15] |
-- |
-46% |
-- |
-38+/-6% |
+8%[15] |
[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] In one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So are 12.5 and 12.4 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked seventh and eighth respectively.
The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 48.1 marks, and 31% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 24 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 62.0, 56.0 and 51.5 marks, and 60%, 45% and 28% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 52, 27 and 12 percentage points respectively.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 74 percentage points. The 2nd to 3rd places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan with net approval rates positive 35 and positive 31 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan ranked 4th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 29, positive 25, positive 21, positive 12, positive 12, positive 7, positive 3, negative 28 and negative 38 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.
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Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 3 to 5 September, 2013 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 8 October, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
8/10/13 |
Aquino refuses to apologize on Manila bus hostage crisis. |
7/10/13 |
Xi Jinping attends the APEC conference. |
6/10/13 |
Xi Jinping instructs Leung Chun-ying to follow the Basic Law on political reform. |
5/10/13 |
There is a fire in subdivided flats of an apartment with illegal structures in Cheung Sha Wan. |
28/9/13 |
Government defines poverty line. |
25/9/13 |
The Council for Sustainable Development launches consultation on rubbish disposal charges. |
19/9/13 |
The Communications Authority fines TVB for $900,000. |
12/9/13 |
The Independent Committee of ICAC releases a report, which revealed Timothy Tong Hin-ming has been involved in breaking the rules 18 times. |
3/9/13 |
Long Term Housing Strategy Steering Committee plans to build 470,000 flats in 10 years. |
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Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.
Our latest survey conducted in early October shows that compared to two weeks ago, the popularity figures of CE CY Leung have slightly receded. CE’s support rating stands at 48.1 marks, approval rate at 31%, disapproval rate goes up significantly by 6 percentage points to 55%, giving a net popularity of negative 24 percentage points, and his rating fails to climb above 50.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 62.0 marks, her approval rate 60%, disapproval rate 8%, and net popularity positive 52 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his latest support rating is 56.0 marks, approval rate 45%, disapproval rate 18%, and net popularity positive 27 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 51.5 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 12 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 of the 12 Directors have gone up, 5 have gone down and 1 remained unchanged*. Among them, only Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan registered significant changes in net approval rate, down by 11 percentage points and up by 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Paul Chan and Eddie Ng registered negative popularities, at negative 38 and 28 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, at positive 74 percentage points.
According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam now falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Tsang Tak-sing, Wong Kam-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Gregory So, Paul Tang, Rimsky Yuen and Raymond Tam can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (77%) |
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“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (60%) |
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“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (49%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (46%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (45%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (42%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (41%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (31%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (28%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (19%) |
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“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (30%, 47%); Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai (29%, 36%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (28%[17], 44%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (28%[17], 44%); |
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“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
CE Leung Chun-ying (55%); Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (53%) |
|
“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
-- |
[17] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen are 28.5% and 28.3%.
* Erratum: The description “…5 of the 12 Directors have gone up, 5 have gone down and 2 remained unchanged” in the original release was mistyped, and now corrected with regret.
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Future Release (Tentative)
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| Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |
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