HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on October 2, 2013

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) interviewed 1,013 Hong Kong people between 23 and 26 September 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung continues to rebound. His support rating now stands at 49.4 marks and net popularity at negative 15 percentage points. Although both readings are on the negative side, they are already new highs since April this year, meaning that the difficulties of governance have alleviated, at least for the time being. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, satisfaction rate goes up by 3 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate goes down by 7 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 13 percentage points, which is also close to the level registered in April. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, three among the five items have registered positive values, they are relations with the Central Government at positive 18 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 2 percentage points, and protection of human rights and freedom also at positive 2 percentage points. Meanwhile, the net satisfaction rates of improving people's livelihood and developing democracy are negative 10 and negative 20 percentage points respectively. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction rates of all five items except developing democracy have registered significant increases. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 64%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,013successful interviews, not 1,013 x 63.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 mid-year.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
23-26/9/2013	1,013	63.8%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	2-5/7/13	22-25/7/13	1-8/8/13	15-20/8/13	3-5/9/13	23-26/9/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,001	1,032	1,002	1,015	1,006	1,013	--
Overall response rate	68.0%	68.2%	65.2%	65.7%	64.5%	63.8%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	46.5	45.1	45.7	43.7	45.7^[9]	49.4+/-1.6	+3.7^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	26%	29%	26%	25%	28%	34+/-3%	+6%^[9]
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	55%	54%	57%	56%	56%	49+/-3%	-7%^[9]
Net approval rate	-29%	-25%	-31%	-31%	-28%	-15+/-6%	+13%^[9]
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	24%	--	26%	--	29+/-4%	+3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	47%	--	49%	--	42+/-4%	-7%^[9]
Net satisfaction rate	--	-23%^[9]	--	-23%	--	-13+/-7%	+10%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=550)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=652)	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=574)	+0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 582.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 49.4 marks, and 34% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 15 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 29% were satisfied, whereas 42% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 13 percentage points. The mean score is 2.7, which is in between "quite dissatisfied" and "half-half".

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	18-27/9/12	18-28/12/12	21-27/3/13	13-19/6/13	23-26/9/13	Latest Change^[13]
Sample base^[13]	569-691	633-661	605-681	568-688	566-589	--
Overall response rate	67.8%	65.7%	67.1%	68.0%	63.8%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[10]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[11]	32%^[12]	37%^[12]	44%^[12]	39%^[12]	44+/-4%	+5%^[12]
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	34%^[12]	28%^[12]	25%	30%^[12]	26+/-4%	-4%
Net satisfaction rate	-2%^[12]	9%^[12]	19%^[12]	9%^[12]	18+/-7%	+9%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.9+/-0.1^[12] (Base=609)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=559)	3.2+/-0.1^[12] (Base=600)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=590)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=507)	+0.1
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[11]	31%	35%	36%	28%^[12]	38+/-4%	+10%^[12]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	37%^[12]	33%	33%	41%^[12]	36+/-4%	-5%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-6%^[12]	2%^[12]	3%	-13%^[12]	2+/-7%	+15%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=540)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=610)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=603)	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base=552)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=572)	+0.2^[12]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[11]	29%^[12]	35%^[12]	28%^[12]	31%	37+/-4%	+6%^[12]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	44%^[12]	36%^[12]	43%^[12]	43%	35+/-4%	-8%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-15%^[12]	-1%^[12]	-15%^[12]	-12%	2+/-7%	+14%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base=588)	2.9+/-0.1^[12] (Base=590)	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base=646)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=663)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=530)	+0.2^[12]
Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[11]	26%^[12]	32%^[12]	27%^[12]	27%	34+/-4%	+7%^[12]
Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	44%^[12]	39%^[12]	42%	51%^[12]	44+/-4%	-7%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-18%^[12]	-7%^[12]	-15%^[12]	-24%^[12]	-10+/-7%	+14%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base=583)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=634)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=589)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=650)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=571)	+0.2^[12]
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[11]	22%^[12]	21%	22%	25%	28+/-4%	+3%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	53%^[12]	45%^[12]	50%^[12]	50%	48+/-4%	-2%
Net satisfaction rate	-31%^[12]	-24%^[12]	-28%	-25%	-20+/-7%	+5%
Mean value^[11]	2.4+/-0.1^[12] (Base=536)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=587)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=604)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=634)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=532)	+0.1

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 18 percentage points. The government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity and protecting human rights and freedom followed, both attaining a net satisfaction rate of positive 2 percentage points. The government’s performance in improving people's livelihood attained a net satisfaction rate of negative 10 percentage points. Finally, the net satisfaction rate of the government's performance in developing democracy stands at negative 20 percentage points. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.2, 2.9, 2.9, 2.8 and 2.6 respectively, which are close to "half-half" in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 13 to 19 June, 2013 while this survey was conducted from 23 to 26 September, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

19/9/13	The Communications Authority fines TVB for $900,000.
17/9/13	Li Ka-shing states that he and his corporate will never leave Hong Kong at media lunchon.
3/9/13	Long-term Housing Strategy Steering Committee plans to build 470,000 flats in 10 years.
11/8/13	Leung Chun-ying attends a public forum in Tin Shui Wai.
7/8/13	Office of the Chief Executive releases new declaring guidelines on conflict of interest for politically appointed officials.
16/7/13	Director of LOCPG Zhang Xiaoming comments on issues of "Occupy Central” and “Universal suffrage”.
4/7/13	Tony Chan Chun-chuen is convicted of forging Nina Wang Kung Yu-sum's will and using a false instrument.
4/7/13	Government introduces modified plan on new town project in the north-east New Territories.
3/7/13	Government turns down Lee Shau-kee's offer of lands to build affordable flats for young people.
25/6/13	Government publishes report on its work in the past year.
21/6/13	LegCo will vote on the bill of landfills expansion.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our survey conducted towards the end of September shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung continues to rebound. His support rating now stands at 49.4 marks and net popularity at negative 15 percentage points. Although both readings are on the negative side, they are already new highs since April this year, meaning that the difficulties of governance have alleviated, at least for the time being. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, satisfaction rate goes up by 3 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate goes down by 7 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 13 percentage points, which is also close to the level registered in April. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, three among the five items have registered positive values, they are relations with the Central Government at positive 18 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 2 percentage points, and protection of human rights and freedom also at positive 2 percentage points. Meanwhile, the net satisfaction rates of improving people's livelihood and developing democracy are negative 10 and negative 20 percentage points respectively. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction rates of all five items except developing democracy have registered significant increases. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

October 8, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Top Ten Legislative Councillors