HKU POP releases the latest trust and confidence indicators Back

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) interviewed 1,007 Hong Kong people between 15 and 17 September 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that all trust and confidence indicators have rebounded, roughly back to the level registered 6 months ago. People’s trust in the Taiwan Government, however, has not changed much. Compared to three months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR and Central Governments have rebounded 12 and 10 percentage points respectively, with net trust values of positive 13 and negative 1 percentage point. As for the confidence indicators, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China have remained positive, with net values of positive 14 and 43 percentage points. People’s net confidence in “one country, two systems” has significantly recovered from zero three months ago to positive 15 percentage points now, meaning that the worrying situation in last time has been relieved. Further analysis shows the older the more trust in the HKSAR and Central Governments. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.

[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 65.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, when quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 mid-year. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:

[7] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 593 to 668, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated. 
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 44% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 35% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 22% trusted the Taiwan Government. The mean scores of these trust indicators are 3.1, 2.9 and 2.8 respectively, meaning close to “half-half” in general. On the other hand, 54% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong’s future and 68% had confidence in China’s future, while 55% of the respondents were confident in “one country, two systems”.

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents' trust in HKSAR Government and Beijing Central Government by age:

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from June 10 to 13, 2013 while this survey was conducted from September 15 to 17, 2013. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

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Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey conducted in mid-September shows that all trust and confidence indicators have rebounded, roughly back to the level registered 6 months ago. People’s trust in the Taiwan Government, however, has not changed much. Compared to three months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR and Central Governments have rebounded 12 and 10 percentage points respectively, with net trust values of positive 13 and negative 1 percentage point. As for the confidence indicators, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China have remained positive, with net values of positive 14 and 43 percentage points. People’s net confidence in ‘one country, two systems’ has significantly recovered from zero three months ago to positive 15 percentage points now, meaning that the worrying situation in last time has been relieved. Further analysis shows the older the more trust in the HKSAR and Central Governments. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

• October 2, 2013 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government