| Press Release on September 10, 2013 |
|
| Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |
|
Abstract
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between September 3 and 5, 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that compared to two weeks ago, the popularity figures of CE CY Leung have slightly improved, basically back to the level registered one month ago, with a rating above the warning line of 45 marks again. CE’s support rating increases 2 marks significantly to 45.7 marks, approval rate at 28%, disapproval rate at 56%, giving a net popularity of negative 28 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 63.2 marks, her approval rate 62%, disapproval rate 7%, and net popularity positive 55 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his latest support rating is 57.3 marks, approval rate 50%, disapproval rate 16%, and net popularity positive 34 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 52.4 marks, approval rate 30%, disapproval rate 13%, giving a net popularity of positive 17 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 4 of the 12 Directors have gone up and the other eight have gone down. Among them, only Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung registered a significant change in net approval rate, down by 8 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Paul Chan and Eddie Ng registered negative popularities, at negative 46 and 17 percentage points respectively. The former figure is again the all-time low for Chan, as well as being the worst figure ever registered among all Secretaries and Directors since this survey series began in 2002. Ko Wing-man, on the other hand, continues to be the most popular Director, at positive 76 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of John Tsang, Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Gregory So, Tsang Tak-sing, Wong Kam-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Rimsky Yuen, Paul Tang and Raymond Tam can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Paul Chan and CY Leung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 64%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 64.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages of each survey is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, when quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
|
Latest Figures
POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2013. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
3-5/9/2013 |
1,006 |
64.5% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values) |
Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values) |
1,300 |
+/- 2.8 % |
1,350 |
+/- 2.7 % |
1,200 |
+/- 2.9 % |
1,250 |
+/- 2.8 % |
1,100 |
+/- 3.0 % |
1,150 |
+/- 3.0 % |
1,000 |
+/- 3.2 % |
1,050 |
+/- 3.1 % |
900 |
+/- 3.3 % |
950 |
+/- 3.2 % |
800 |
+/- 3.5 % |
850 |
+/- 3.4 % |
700 |
+/- 3.8 % |
750 |
+/- 3.7 % |
600 |
+/- 4.1 % |
650 |
+/- 3.9 % |
500 |
+/- 4.5 % |
550 |
+/- 4.3 % |
400 |
+/- 5.0 % |
450 |
+/- 4.7 % |
[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:
Date of survey |
13-19/6/13 |
2-5/7/13 |
22-25/7/13 |
1-8/8/13 |
15-20/8/13 |
3-5/9/13 |
Latest change |
Sample base |
1,040 |
1,001 |
1,032 |
1,002 |
1,015 |
1,006 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
68.0% |
68.0% |
68.2% |
65.2% |
65.7% |
64.5% |
-- |
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[8] |
-- |
Rating of CE CY Leung |
46.2 |
46.5 |
45.1 |
45.7 |
43.7[9] |
45.7+/-1.6 |
+2.0[9] |
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung |
27% |
26% |
29% |
26% |
25% |
28+/-3% |
+3% |
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung |
55% |
55% |
54% |
57% |
56% |
56+/-3% |
-- |
Net approval rate |
-28% |
-29% |
-25% |
-31%[9] |
-31% |
-28+/-6% |
+3% |
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
Date of survey |
2-7/5/13 |
3-5/6/13 |
2-5/7/13 |
1-8/8/13 |
3-5/9/13 |
Latest change [10] |
Sample base[10] |
599-638 |
595-647 |
615-663 |
605-626 |
586-626 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
65.9% |
65.4% |
68.0% |
65.2% |
64.5% |
-- |
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [11] |
-- |
Rating of CS Carrie Lam |
60.7 |
60.8 |
61.9 |
63.3 |
63.2+/-1.6 |
-0.1 |
Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam |
54% |
58% |
57% |
60% |
62+/-4% |
+2% |
Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam |
8% |
8% |
9% |
6%[12] |
7+/-2% |
+1% |
Net approval rate |
46% |
50% |
48% |
54%[12] |
55+/-5% |
+1% |
Rating of FS John Tsang |
53.8[12] |
54.9 |
53.2[12] |
56.9[12] |
57.3+/-1.5 |
+0.4 |
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang |
41%[12] |
46%[12] |
41%[12] |
51%[12] |
50+/-4% |
-1% |
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang |
20% |
19% |
21% |
17%[12] |
16+/-3% |
-1% |
Net approval rate |
21% |
27% |
20%[12] |
34%[12] |
34+/-6% |
-- |
Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen |
50.7 |
49.0 |
52.6[12] |
53.0 |
52.4+/-1.6 |
-0.6 |
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
26% |
23% |
28%[12] |
34%[12] |
30+/-4% |
-4% |
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
16% |
15% |
18% |
12%[12] |
13+/-3% |
+1% |
Net approval rate |
10% |
8% |
10% |
22%[12] |
17+/-5% |
-5% |
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:
Date of survey |
2-5/7/13 |
1-8/8/13 |
3-5/9/13 |
Latest change |
Sample base [13] |
584-629 |
595-633 |
579-630 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
68.0% |
65.2% |
64.5% |
-- |
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer |
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
Base |
% & error [14] |
-- |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man |
584 |
78% |
627 |
82%[15] |
589 |
80+/-3% |
-2% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man |
584 |
5% |
627 |
2%[15] |
589 |
4+/-2% |
+2% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
73% |
-- |
80%[15] |
-- |
76+/-4% |
-4% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung |
603 |
48% |
622 |
51% |
618 |
50+/-4% |
-1% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung |
603 |
16% |
622 |
15% |
618 |
16+/-3% |
+1% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
32% |
-- |
36% |
-- |
34+/-6% |
-2% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan |
600 |
39% |
605 |
42% |
607 |
40+/-4% |
-2% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan |
600 |
12% |
605 |
7%[15] |
607 |
7+/-2% |
-- |
Net approval rate |
-- |
27% |
-- |
35%[15] |
-- |
33+/-5% |
-2% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok |
621 |
38%[15] |
597 |
43%[15] |
617 |
44+/-4% |
+1% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok |
621 |
20% |
597 |
17% |
617 |
16+/-3% |
-1% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
18%[15] |
-- |
26%[15] |
-- |
28+/-6% |
+2% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung |
602 |
38%[15] |
600 |
44%[15] |
596 |
40+/-4% |
-4% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung |
602 |
19%[15] |
600 |
14%[15] |
596 |
18+/-3% |
+4%[15] |
Net approval rate |
-- |
19%[15] |
-- |
30%[15] |
-- |
22+/-6% |
-8%[15] |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So |
612 |
24% |
624 |
34%[15] |
630 |
35+/-4% |
+1% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So |
612 |
22% |
624 |
17%[15] |
630 |
17+/-3% |
-- |
Net approval rate |
-- |
2% |
-- |
17%[15] |
-- |
18+/-6% |
+1% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang |
623 |
22%[15] |
603 |
29%[15] |
611 |
28+/-4% |
-1% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang |
623 |
14%[15] |
603 |
7%[15] |
611 |
11+/-3% |
+4%[15] |
Net approval rate |
-- |
8% |
-- |
22%[15] |
-- |
17+/-5% |
-5% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam |
591 |
24% |
633 |
29%[15] |
579 |
28+/-4% |
-1% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam |
591 |
18% |
633 |
15% |
579 |
16+/-3% |
+1% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
6% |
-- |
14%[15] |
-- |
12+/-6% |
-2% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
629 |
25%[15] |
607 |
33%[15] |
625 |
31+/-4% |
-2% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
629 |
25%[15] |
607 |
21%[15] |
625 |
22+/-3% |
+1% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
0%[15] |
-- |
12%[15] |
-- |
9+/-6% |
-3% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing |
600 |
26%[15] |
596 |
33%[15] |
602 |
33+/-4% |
-- |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing |
600 |
27% |
596 |
28% |
602 |
27+/-4% |
-1% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
-1%[15] |
-- |
5% |
-- |
6+/-6% |
+1% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng |
615 |
18%[15] |
595 |
22%[15] |
593 |
25+/-4% |
+3% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng |
615 |
45% |
595 |
44% |
593 |
42+/-4% |
-2% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
-27%[15] |
-- |
-22% |
-- |
-17+/-7% |
+5% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan |
585 |
20% |
599 |
15%[15] |
600 |
14+/-3% |
-1% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan |
585 |
46% |
599 |
60%[15] |
600 |
60+/-4% |
-- |
Net approval rate |
-- |
-26% |
-- |
-45%[15] |
-- |
-46+/-6% |
-1% |
[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 45.7 marks, and 28% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 28 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 63.2, 57.3 and 52.4 marks, and 62%, 50% and 30% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 55, 34 and 17 percentage points respectively.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 76 percentage points. The 2nd to 3rd places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan with net approval rates positive 34 and positive 33 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan ranked 4th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 28, positive 22, positive 18, positive 17, positive 12, positive 9, positive 6, negative 17 and negative 46 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.
|
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 1 to 8 August, 2013 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 5 September, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
5/9/13 |
Sun Hung Kai Properties splashes 21.8 billion to acquire the prime land in Shanghai. |
3/9/13 |
Long-term Housing Strategy Steering Committee plans to build 470,000 flats in 10 years. |
11/8/13 |
Leung Chun-ying attends a public forum in Tin Shui Wai. |
7/8/13 |
Office of the Chief Executive releases new declaring guidelines on conflict of interest for politically appointed officials. |
5/8/13 |
Cow & Gate announces to recall 100,000 cans of baby formula in Hong Kong and Macau. |
4/8/13 |
Supporters and detractors of school teacher Alpais Lam Wai-sze hold a rally; the incident turns into a conflict at Mong Kok. |
2/8/13 |
Henry Ho Kin-chung, political assistant to Secretary for Development resigns. |
1/8/13 |
Franklin Lam Fan-keung resigns from the Executive Council. |
|
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.
Our latest survey conducted in early September shows that compared to two weeks ago, the popularity figures of CE CY Leung have slightly improved, basically back to the level registered one month ago, with a rating above the warning line of 45 marks again. CE’s support rating increases 2 marks significantly to 45.7 marks, approval rate at 28%, disapproval rate at 56%, giving a net popularity of negative 28 percentage points.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 63.2 marks, her approval rate 62%, disapproval rate 7%, and net popularity positive 55 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his latest support rating is 57.3 marks, approval rate 50%, disapproval rate 16%, and net popularity positive 34 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 52.4 marks, approval rate 30%, disapproval rate 13%, giving a net popularity of positive 17 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 4 of the 12 Directors have gone up and the other eight have gone down. Among them, only Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung registered a significant change in net approval rate, down by 8 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Paul Chan and Eddie Ng registered negative popularities, at negative 46 and 17 percentage points respectively. The former figure is again the all-time low for Chan, as well as being the worst figure ever registered among all Secretaries and Directors since this survey series began in 2002. Ko Wing-man, on the other hand, continues to be the most popular Director, at positive 76 percentage points.
According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of John Tsang, Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Gregory So, Tsang Tak-sing, Wong Kam-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Rimsky Yuen, Paul Tang and Raymond Tam can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Paul Chan and CY Leung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (80%) |
|
"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (62%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (50%[16]) |
|
"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
FS John Tsang Chun-wah (50%[16]); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (44%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (40%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (35%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (33%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (31%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (25%) |
|
"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (40%, 47%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (30%, 43%); Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai (28%[17], 39%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (28%[17], 44%); |
|
"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
CE Leung Chun-ying (56%); Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (60%) |
|
"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
-- |
[16] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung and FS John Tsang Chun-wah are 50.0% and 49.8%.
[17] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen are 28.4% and 27.9%.
|
Future Release (Tentative)
|
|
| Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |
|
