HKU POP releases survey on the popularity of cross-strait political figuresBack

Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan in August, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to 5 months ago, the list of top 10 cross-strait political figures has not changed much. On the awareness level, all the top 10 cross-strait political figures on the list last time have stayed on the list, thus the Mainland versus Taiwan 7:3 split across the two sides of the strait remains unchanged. In terms of support rating, among the top 10 figures, the popularity ratings of 6 have decreased while the other 4 have increased. Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang register significant decreases, while Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian and Jiang Zemin register significant increases. As for the relative rankings, Zhu Rongji and Wen Jiabao continue to rank 1st and 2nd. Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping swap positions to rank 3rd and 4th. Ma Ying-jeou, Li Keqiang, Jiang Zemin, Lee Teng-hui, Li Peng and Chen Shui-bian continue to rank 5th to 10th unchanged. It should be noted that our list of “top 10 cross-strait political figures” only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. The maximum sampling error of all rating figures is +/-2.2 marks at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 68%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,015 successful interviews, not 1,015 x 65.7% response rate. The sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,014 successful interviews, not 1,014 x 67.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest survey on popularity of cross-strait political figures. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

The research design of our “Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-August. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Ma Ying-jeou, Xi Jinping, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in late-August, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997. Recent ratings of the top political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan are summarized as follows:

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. {} Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that, among the ten most well-known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, in terms of popularity rating, Zhu Rongji ranked first, attaining 71.9 marks. The 2nd to 4th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping with respective scores of 66.0, 63.4 and 62.2 marks. Ma Ying-jeou, Li Keqiang and Jiang Zemin occupied the 5th to 7th ranks with 60.4, 56.4 and 55.1 marks correspondingly. The 8th and 10th ranks fell to Lee Teng-hui, Li Peng and Chen Shui-bian with respective scores of 43.1, 38.8 and 25.8 marks. For this latest survey, Lien Chan and Tsai Ing-wen obtained support ratings of 53.0 and 52.4 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 64.8 marks, while that for the top 10 was 54.3 marks. As for the overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 16 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

[10] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by political figures over the past 18 months.

The overall rankings in the past 16 months showed that eight political figures have been on the list for four times. Zhu Rongji ranked first, achieving an average rating of 71.6 marks, Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao ranked 2nd and 3rd, attaining 68.8 and 64.9 marks correspondingly, Ma Ying-Jeou, Xi Jinping, Jiang Zemin, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian who ranked 4th to 8th with respective scores of 63.0, 62.4, 54.0, 38.4 and 21.4 marks. Li Peng has been on the list for three times with 38.4 marks, ranked the 9th. Li Keqiang and Lien Chan have been on the list twice, ranked the 10th and 11th with respective scores of 58.2 and 50.5. James Soong has been on the list once with 45.7 marks and occupied the 12th place.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 25 to April 3, 2013 while the latest survey was conducted from August 26 to 29, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Compared to 5 months ago, the list of top 10 cross-strait political figures has not changed much. On the awareness level, all the top 10 cross-strait political figures on the list last time have stayed on the list, thus the Mainland versus Taiwan 7:3 split across the two sides of the strait remains unchanged. In terms of support rating, among the top 10 figures, the popularity ratings of 6 have decreased while the other 4 have increased. Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang register significant decreases, while Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian and Jiang Zemin register significant increases. As for the relative rankings, Zhu Rongji and Wen Jiabao continue to rank 1st and 2nd. Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping swap positions to rank 3rd and 4th. Ma Ying-jeou, Li Keqiang, Jiang Zemin, Lee Teng-hui, Li Peng and Chen Shui-bian continue to rank 5th to 10th unchanged. It should be noted that our list of ‘top 10 cross-strait political figures’ only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

• September 10, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2 pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials