| Press Release on August 20, 2013 |
|
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis |
| Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan / Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations ) |
|
Abstract
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,025 Hong Kong people between 8 and 15 August, 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people’s opposition to the independence of Taiwan remains high at over 60%, with a net opposition rate of 35 percentage points. However, 52% support Taiwan rejoining the UN, giving a net support of 23 percentage points. This shows that although Hong Kong people object to the independence of Taiwan, they are willing to see Taiwan enjoy greater international space. The percentage of those who believed “one country, two systems” should be applicable to Taiwan stands at 41%, as net confidence improves slightly from negative 5 percentage points registered about half a year ago to negative 3 percentage points now. It should be noted that the percentage of people who are pessimistic about reunification across the strait has increased significantly compared to about half a year ago, as net confidence goes down from negative 9 to negative 15 percentage points. Further analysis shows that older people are more opposed to Taiwan’s independence and more confident of cross-strait reunification. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 68%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,025 successful interviews, not 1,025 x 67.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7%”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, when quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
|
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on various Taiwan issues. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys:
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
8-15/8/2013 |
1,025 |
67.7% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Latest people’s views towards various Taiwan issues are summarized below:
Date of survey[7] |
6-13/12/11 |
22-27/3/12 |
21-29/8/12 |
5-14/3/13 |
8-15/8/2013 |
Latest Change |
Total sample size[7] |
1,005 |
1,014 |
1,004 |
1,006 |
1,025 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
67.4% |
62.7% |
65.5% |
68.8% |
67.7% |
-- |
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [8] |
-- |
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate |
67% |
64% |
58%[9] |
60% |
61+/-4% |
+1% |
Taiwan independence: Support rate |
20% |
20% |
25%[9] |
25% |
26+/-3% |
+1% |
Net opposition |
47% |
44% |
33% |
35% |
35+/-7% |
-- |
Believed ‘one country, two systems’ was applicable to Taiwan |
40%[9] |
49%[9] |
43%[9] |
39% |
41+/-4% |
+2% |
Believed ‘one country, two systems’ was not applicable to Taiwan |
44%[9] |
37%[9] |
40% |
44% |
44+/-4% |
-- |
Net value of applicability |
-4% |
12% |
3% |
-5% |
-3+/-7% |
+2% |
Confidence in cross-strait reunification |
45% |
40%[9] |
40% |
37% |
37+/-4% |
-- |
No confidence in cross-strait reunification |
41% |
46%[9] |
43% |
46% |
52+/-4% |
+6%[9] |
Net confidence |
4% |
-6% |
-3% |
-9% |
-15+/-7% |
-6% |
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate |
39% |
43% |
41% |
48%[9] |
52+/-4% |
+4% |
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate |
39% |
34%[9] |
31% |
29% |
29+/-4% |
-- |
Net support |
0% |
9% |
10% |
19%[9] |
23+/-7% |
+4% |
[7] Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 610 to 699, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated. Since 2012, the frequency of surveys has reduced from once every 3 months to half-yearly.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7%” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Latest survey revealed that 61% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 26% showed support. As for the applicability of “one country, two systems” to Taiwan, 41% gave a positive view while 44% gave a negative answer. 37% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 52% expressed no confidence. 52% supported the rejoining the United Nations of Taiwan while 29% opposed.
|
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ view on the Taiwan independence issue and confidence in cross-strait reunification by age:
Date of survey: 8-15/8/2013 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall Sample |
View on the Taiwan independence issue[10] |
Oppose |
43+/-9%
(47) |
63+/-6%
(175) |
67+/-5%
(201) |
61+/-4%
(423) |
Support |
45+/-9%
(50) |
27+/-5%
(76) |
19+/-4%
(56) |
26+/-3%
(182) |
Don’t know / hard to say |
12+/-6%
(13) |
10+/-4%
(28) |
15+/-4%
(44) |
12+/-3%
(86) |
Total |
100%
(111) |
100%
(279) |
100%
(301) |
100%
(691) |
[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
Date of survey: 8-15/8/2013 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall Sample |
Confidence in cross-strait reunification[11] |
Yes |
22+/-7%
(26) |
34+/-6%
(85) |
47+/-6%
(143) |
38+/-4%
(254) |
No |
72+/-8%
(87) |
56+/-6%
(143) |
40+/-6%
(121) |
52+/-4%
(351) |
Don’t know / hard to say |
7+/-5%
(8) |
10+/-4%
(25) |
13+/-4%
(39) |
11+/-2%
(72) |
Total |
100%
(122) |
100%
(253) |
100%
(303) |
100%
(678) |
[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
|
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from March 5 to 14, 2013 while this survey was conducted from August 8 to 15, 2013. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
16/7/13 |
Director of LOCPG Zhang Xiaoming comments on issues of “Occupy Central” and “Universal suffrage”. |
25/6/13 |
Government publishes report on its work in the past year. |
8/6/13 |
China and US build new type of power relationship. |
4/6/13 |
Many newspapers report the news of the June Fourth candlelight vigil. |
27/4/13 |
Chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, Zhang Dejiang meets with the political parties in Hong Kong for the first time. |
24/3/13 |
The central government commits to achieve universal suffrage in Hong Kong by 2017. |
18/3/13 |
President Xi Jinping meets with Chief Executive CY Leung and Macau Chief Executive Fernando Chui in Beijing. |
17/3/13 |
China's president Xi Jinping invokes his concept of the “China dream”. |
15/3/13 |
Li Keqiang is formal elected as China's premier. |
14/3/13 |
Xi Jinping is formally elected as China's president. |
|
Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people’s opposition to the independence of Taiwan remains high at over 60%, with a net opposition rate of 35 percentage points. However, 52% support Taiwan rejoining the UN, giving a net support of 23 percentage points. This shows that although Hong Kong people object to the independence of Taiwan, they are willing to see Taiwan enjoy greater international space. The percentage of those who believed ‘one country, two systems’ should be applicable to Taiwan stands at 41%, as net confidence improves slightly from negative 5 percentage points registered about half a year ago to negative 3 percentage points now. It should be noted that the percentage of people who are pessimistic about reunification across the strait has increased significantly compared to about half a year ago, as net confidence goes down from negative 9 to negative 15 percentage points. Further analysis shows that older people are more opposed to Taiwan’s independence and more confident of cross-strait reunification. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”
|
Future Release (Tentative)
|
|
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis |
| Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan / Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations ) |
|
