HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on July 30, 2013

Special Announcement

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has already released the preliminary report and all video records of "OCLP Deliberation Series" DDay1, together with all video records of July 1 Rally for head counting. Please go to these websites for free downloading: "HKU POP Site" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) and "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk). The final report of “DDay1” will be released online later this week.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,032 Hong Kong people between 22 and 25 July 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung continues to hit the bottom, as his support rating drops to a record low of 45.1 since he took office as CE. His approval rate, however, has gone up slightly to 29%, while his disapproval rate drops to 54%, giving net popularity of negative 25 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, satisfaction rate goes up by 4 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate goes down by 4 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 23 percentage points. Since the Paul Chan Incident occurred during our survey period, our team conducted a day-by-day analysis of the popularity of CY Leung and SARG, and found that as the scandal develops, their popularity figures drop significantly since 23 July. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,032 successful interviews, not 1,032 x 68.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey, and rounding procedures in collating the figures, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
22-25/7/2013	1,032	68.2%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	2-7/5/13	20-23/5/13	3-5/6/13	13-19/6/13	2-5/7/13	22-25/7/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,017	1,023	1,012	1,040	1,001	1,032	--
Overall response rate	65.9%	69.5%	65.4%	68.0%	68.0%	68.2%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	49.0	46.7^[9]	46.7	46.2	46.5	45.1+/-1.6	-1.4
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	29%^[9]	30%	30%	27%	26%	29+/-3%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	54%^[9]	54%	54%	55%	55%	54+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	-25%^[9]	-24%	-24%	-28%	-29%	-25+/-5%	+4%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	26%	--	20%^[9]	--	24+/-4%	+4%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	44%^[9]	--	51%^[9]	--	47+/-4%	-4%
Net satisfaction rate	--	-18%^[9]	--	-31%^[9]	--	-23+/-7%	+8%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=547)	--	2.5+/-0.1^[9] (Base=644)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=550)	+0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 552.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 45.1 marks, and 29% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 25 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 24% were satisfied, whereas 47% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 23 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is in between "quite dissatisfied" and "half-half".

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive by respondents' age, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

Date of survey: 22-25/7/2013		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE^[10]	Support	14+/-5% (27)	28+/-5% (109)	36+/-5% (159)	29+/-3% (295)
	Oppose	74+/-6% (141)	58+/-5% (225)	44+/-5% (191)	55+/-3% (557)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	12+/-5% (23)	14+/-4% (55)	20+/-4% (89)	16+/-2% (167)
	Total	100% (191)	100% (389)	100% (438)	100% (1,019)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Besides, since the Paul Chan Incident occurred during our survey period, the research team conducted an indepth analysis of CY Leung’s support rating, approval rate and the satisfaction rate of SARG performance broken down by the survey dates, in order to understand the impact of the incident. The results are as follows, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

	22/7/2013	23/7/2013	24-25/7/2013^[11]	Total
Support Rating of CE CY Leung	49.5+/-2.9 (307)	42.6+/-2.7^[12] (382)	43.8+/-2.9 (321)	45.1+/-1.6 (1,010)
Support CY Leung as CE	34+/-5% (106)	27+/-5% (106)	26+/-5% (85)	29+/-3% (296)
Oppose CY Leung as CE	47+/-6% (147)	59+/-5%^[12] (229)	56+/-5% (184)	54+/-3% (559)
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance	33+/-7% (55)	24+/-6% (50)	15+/-5%^[12] (26)	24+/-4% (131)
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance	41+/-8% (68)	48+/-7% (99)	53+/-7% (94)	47+/-4% (262)

[11] Having considered the sub-sample size per day, the research team merged the data from the last two days in order to increase statistical validity.
[12] Such figures are significantly different from those in the previous column at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-by-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 13 to 19 June, 2013 while this survey was conducted from 22 to 25 July, 2013. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

22/7/13	Paul Chan Mo-po refuses to admit conflict of interest despite his family owns a land on Northeast New Territories.
20/7/13	Hutchison Whampoa claims it had no intention of withdrawing from Hong Kong.
16/7/13	Director of LOCPG Zhang Xiaoming comments on issues of "Occupy Central” and “Universal suffrage”.
4/7/13	Government introduces modified plan on new town project in the north-east New Territories.
3/7/13	Government turns down Lee Shau-kee's offer of lands to build affordable flats for young people.
1/7/13	Many newspapers report the news of July 1 March.
25/6/13	Government publishes report on its work in the past year.
24/6/13	Snowden vanishes, U.S. criticizes Hong Kong government for allowing Snowden to leave.
21/6/13	LegCo will vote on the bill of landfills expansion.
19/6/13	Legistlative Council members question on Hong Kong's internet security.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our survey conducted in late-July shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung continues to hit the bottom, as his support rating drops to a record low of 45.1 since he took office as CE. His approval rate, however, has gone up slightly to 29%, while his disapproval rate drops to 54%, giving net popularity of negative 25 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, satisfaction rate goes up by 4 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate goes down by 4 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 23 percentage points. Since the Paul Chan Incident occurred during our survey period, our team conducted a day-by-day analysis of the popularity of CY Leung and SARG, and found that as the scandal develops, their popularity figures drop significantly since 23 July. As for any other reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

August 6, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Freedom, social and legal indicators