HKU POP releases HKSAR Anniversary survey and forecasts July 1 rally study arrangementsBack

(1) Preliminary Report and video clips of “OCLP Deliberation Series” DDay1 now released

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong earlier released the Preliminary Report of the “OCLP Deliberation Series” DDay1. Members of public and media are welcome to read the Chinese report at the “OCLP Deliberation Series” Feature Page of the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) and also at the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk). Almost all video clips of the plenary sessions and small group discussions are now available at the feature page for public consumption.

(2) Review of HKSAR anniversary

POP’s usual practice is to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also end point of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. Recently, POP issues a number of releases under the “HKSAR anniversary” survey series. Please see POP Site and also the “Future Releases” section of this press release for more information. Since the figures released today by POP come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted before July 2013, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for HKSAR anniversary stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running HKSAR anniversary reviews.

(3) Headcount of July 1 Rally

POP will conduct a headcount of July 1 Rally participants next Monday, and releases its preliminary results via the “HKU POP SITE” in the evening, around 2 to 4 hours after the rally.

POP interviewed 1,047 Hong Kong people between 20 and 25 June, 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. As the 16th Handover Anniversary draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has dropped 4 percentage points to 33%, which is a record low since 1998. Regarding people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s Hong Kong policies, this year’s positive figure has plunged 8 percentage points whereas the negative figure has gone up by 8 percentage points, giving a net appraisal of negative 2 percentage points, which is the first negative value registered after 2004. Indepth analyses show that the younger the respondent, the less proud one feels of becoming a Chinese national citizen, and also more negative about the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong. Over the years, it has been our practice to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also end point of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. POP is recently attacked both in the public domain and in cyber space, we hope it is just a matter of misunderstanding. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP SITE the latest survey results related to the handover anniversary. The two questions are “people’s feeling of becoming a national citizen of China” and “people’s appraisal of the policy of Central Government on Hong Kong”. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

The survey results are tabulated below:

Results of the latest anniversary survey revealed that, 33% of the respondents were proud of becoming a national citizen of China after the handover, while 63% said they did not have any special feeling. As for the policy of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 30% of the respondents evaluated it positively, whereas 32% gave negative appraisal, giving a net appraisal of negative 2 percentage points. The mean score is 2.9 marks, meaning close to “half-half”.

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondent being proud of becoming a national citizen of China and Central Government’s policy on Hong Kong by age:

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. Yet, this press release is an exception. It is because for the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 19 to 25, 2012 while this survey was conducted from June 20 to 25, 2013. The two surveys were one year apart, and any of the significant events inside “Opinion Daily” in between might have affected people’s comments for the year past. Thus, this press release would not further select the events from “Opinion Daily”, but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records in the respective online section.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “As the 16th Handover Anniversary draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has dropped 4 percentage points to 33%, which is a record low since 1998. Regarding people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s Hong Kong policies, this year’s positive figure has plunged 8 percentage points whereas the negative figure has gone up by 8 percentage points, giving a net appraisal of negative 2 percentage points, which is the first negative value registered after 2004. Indepth analyses show that the younger the respondent, the less proud one feels of becoming a Chinese national citizen, and also more negative about the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong. Over the years, it has been our practice to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also end point of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. POP is recently attacked both in the public domain and in cyber space, we hope it is just a matter of misunderstanding.”

• July 2, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 political groups